Over the past year, I’ve published several articles highlighting the importance of money opportunities — the most high-value touches and targets players can receive, including end-zone targets, deep targets (20 yards or more), air yards, carries inside the 10-yard line and carries inside the 5-yard line.
While working on a recent piece on vacated targets and touches post-NFL free agency, I stumbled upon an interesting correlation: players who earn high-value opportunities in the NFL often did so at the college level.
Bills wide receiver Gabriel Davis was a prime example. In his final season at UCF in 2019, Davis led the nation with 30 end-zone targets. As an NFL rookie in 2020, Davis tied Stefon Diggs for the most end-zone targets on the team (17). That was seventh-most in the NFL and highest among all 2020 rookies.
In this article, I'll take a closer look at the 2021 NFL draft class, examining under-the-radar wide receivers and running backs who commanded a large share of their team’s high-value opportunities at the collegiate level. These stats will cover both 2020 and 2019 in order to include opt-outs.
END-ZONE TARGETS
Most end-zone targets in 2020 | 2021 NFL Draft class
| Player | School | End-zone targets |
| Jonathan Adams Jr. | Arkansas State | 25 |
| DeVonta Smith | Alabama | 19 |
| Marlon Williams | UCF | 17 |
| Seth Williams | Auburn | 15 |
| Dyami Brown | North Carolina | 13 |
| Kyle Pitts | Florida | 13 |
| Jaelon Darden | North Texas | 12 |
Percent of team end-zone targets | 2021 NFL Draft class
| Player | School | Team end-zone target percentage |
| DeVonta Smith | Alabama | 66% |
| Isaiah McKoy | Kent State | 60% |
| Seth Williams | Auburn | 54% |
| Shi Smith | South Carolina | 53% |
| Branden Mack | Temple | 50% |
| Josh Palmer | Tennessee | 48% |
No wide receiver saw more end-zone targets last season than Jonathan Adams Jr. The 6-foot-2, 210-pound playmaker from Arkansas State hauled in nine touchdowns off his end-zone targets — seven of which required him to go and “Moss” a defender.
Jonathan Adams Jr. has the most #ArrogantHands in the class pic.twitter.com/pDN7uxyWi7
— JetPack Galileo (@JetPackGalileo) March 15, 2021
Adams' 12 touchdowns on contested targets are the most among all college WRs since 2019. Nobody else has more than seven.
His lack of separation skills and underwhelming athleticism will make him a Day 3 selection — Grindingthemocks.com has him listed outside the top 35 WRs — but the sleeper appeal is apparent.
Tennessee's Josh Palmer has not been on my radar throughout the pre-draft process. He was snubbed from my initial top-50 rookie rankings, but the NFL seems to be higher on him than his college stats would suggest.
The 2021 PFF Draft Guide projects him as a potential third-round pick, and Grindingthemocks.com has him pegged as the WR26 in their aggregate composition of all mock drafts. Jim Nagy tweeted from the Senior Bowl that he doesn’t expect Palmer to remain on the board past Day 2.
At 6-foot-1 and 210 pounds, it’s not surprising to see that Palmer commanded a significant share of his team’s end-zone targets. He was also featured heavily downfield with a very high aDOT (17.1, 12th in 2020), but that’s the conclusion of his statistical accolades.
Palmer's rise in draft stock is directly related to his performance at this year’s Senior Bowl. His combined grade (8.0) and win rate (81%) in one-on-ones versus defensive backs was easily the best at the event.
It shouldn’t come as a surprise that Palmer showed out at the Senior Bowl considering it was probably the first time he had the luxury of catching passes from legitimate NFL talent.
Tennessee's mess at QB played a big role in his lackluster statistics. We also can’t overlook that before Palmer’s official breakout in 2020, he was competing for targets in an offense that featured future NFL talent in Marquez Callaway and Jauan Jennings.
Palmer is currently PFF’s 72nd-ranked player and 10th-ranked WR on the 2021 Big Board.
Most end-zone targets in 2019 | 2021 NFL Draft class
| Player | Team | End-zone targets |
| Ja'Marr Chase | LSU | 21 |
| T.J. Vasher | Texas Tech | 20 |
| Marquez Stevenson | Houston | 18 |
| Warren Jackson | Colorado State | 18 |
| Nico Collins | Michigan | 17 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | LSU | 17 |
Percent of team end-zone targets in 2019 | 2021 NFL Draft class
| Player | School | Team end-zone target percentage |
| Warren Jackson | Colorado State | 53% |
| Tylan Wallace | Oklahoma State | 50% |
| Marquez Stevenson | Houston | 45% |
| Tamorrion Terry | Florida State | 45% |
Tylan Wallace is one of my favorite wide receiver prospects in the 2021 draft class, so I'm thrilled to see that he was an end-zone target hog in 2019.
Wallace earned 13 end-zone targets that season, but he was only able to catch two of them for touchdowns. The box score doesn’t tell the full story — only seven of his targets were deemed catchable. Four were negated by penalties and several forced him out of bounds.
Wallace’s ability to turn 50/50 balls into 60/40 balls — second-most contested catches made since 2019 — ensures that he will remain a quarterback’s favorite target in the end zone.
Tylan Wallace's last game at Oklahoma State starts now????pic.twitter.com/LLzdBnPHal
— PFF Draft (@PFF_College) December 29, 2020
Terrace Marshall Jr. has a chance to be a touchdown monster in the NFL. He ranks 12th in end-zone targets over the past two seasons, and his PFF receiving grade on those targets ranks fourth-best (93.5). He graded higher than both Ja’Marr Chase (84.1) and Justin Jefferson (82.6) during their final collegiate seasons.
CARRIES NEAR THE GOAL LINE (INCLUDING PLAYS NEGATED BY PENALTIES)
Carries inside the 5-yard line in 2020 season | 2021 NFL Draft class
| Player | School | Carries inside the 5-yard line |
| Najee Harris | Alabama | 24 |
| Javonte Williams | North Carolina | 19 |
| Travis Etienne | Clemson | 16 |
| Stevie Scott III | Indiana | 15 |
| Trey Ragas | Louisiana | 10 |
| Larry Rountree III | Missouri | 10 |
| Spencer Brown | UAB | 10 |
| Jaret Patterson | Buffalo | 10 |
Part of being a productive running back in fantasy football is having the role at the goal-line. Touchdowns are so crucial to an RBs’ success. Last season, Todd Gurley was the RB6 through the first nine weeks of the season because his inefficient play was masked by a whopping nine touchdowns.
Gurley’s touchdown rate was unsustainable to start, and he finished the season as the RB69.
That’s why it should come as no surprise that the consensus top three rookie running backs in this class for fantasy — Najee Harris, Javonte Williams and Travis Etienne — rank at the top of college football in carries inside the 5-yard line.
We need our top-tier RBs to earn every goal-line opportunity if they are to pay off in fantasy. The “Big Three” have shown they can handle the rock near the end zone.
Of the top eight running backs listed above, Jaret Patterson earned the best PFF grade inside the 5-yard line (76.9). He scored or earned a first down on 80% of touches at the goal line.
Percent of carries inside the 5-yard line in 2020 | 2021 NFL Draft class
| Player | School | Carries inside the 5-yard line |
| Spencer Brown | UAB | 91% |
| Alonzo Booth | E. Kentucky | 78% |
| Stevie Scott III | Indiana | 71% |
| Javonte Williams | North Carolina | 68% |
| Najee Harris | Alabama | 63% |
| Larry Rountree III | Missouri | 63% |
I don’t expect Stevie Scott III, Spencer Brown and Larry Rountree III to ascend to RB1 status, but they could all easily carve out a niche as goal-line backs, creating future headaches for fantasy managers. Pay attention if any of the three land on a team with a shaky RB depth chart. Scott is my favorite — the bruising back scored 32 touchdowns over three college seasons.
It’s also worth noting that Elijah Mitchell — one of my favorite sleeper running backs in this class — was not the primary goal-line back on his team in college this past season. Teammate Trey Ragas actually had the slight edge in terms of percent of the team carries inside the 5-yard line (48% vs 38%).
Ragas also graded higher (71.7 versus 59.3), which might have been why the team shied away from using Mitchell in that capacity. But that wasn't the case in 2019 when Mitchell was the dominant runner at the goal line.
A potential role at the goal line would provide a hefty boost to Mitchell’s NFL fantasy outlook.
Q: How many defenders does it take to bring down Elijah Mitchell?
A: Too many ????pic.twitter.com/eM06EZBb4z
— PFF Draft (@PFF_College) December 26, 2020
If Mitchell isn’t destined to become a fully entrenched bell cow at the next level, he has other merits to fall back on. He cut weight and flashed his explosiveness at Louisiana-Lafayette’s pro day.
The former Ragin Cagin’ blazed an unofficial 4.38 40-yard dash time (96th percentile) and a 128-inch broad jump (93rd percentile). That speed and explosiveness are worth taking a flier on in the late rounds of best-ball and dynasty rookie drafts.
Carries inside the 5-yard line in 2019 season | 2021 NFL Draft class
| Player | School | Attempts |
| Elijah Mitchell | Louisiana | 23 |
| LaBron Morris | South Carolina State | 20 |
| Percy Agyei-Obese | James Madison | 19 |
| Chuba Hubbard | Oklahoma State | 19 |
| Jaret Patterson | Buffalo | 19 |
| Travis Etienne | Clemson | 17 |
| Caleb Huntley | Ball State | 15 |
| Jaylon Bester | Miami (OH) | 15 |
| Najee Harris | Alabama | 14 |
| Kylin Hill | Mississippi State | 14 |
| Stevie Scott III | Indiana | 14 |
| Collin Eaddy | Princeton | 13 |
| Trey Ragas | Louisiana | 12 |
Percent of carries inside the 5-yard line in 2019 | 2021 NFL Draft class
| Player | School | % |
| Chuba Hubbard | Oklahoma State | 73% |
| Elijah Mitchell | Louisiana | 55% |
| Najee Harris | Alabama | 54% |
| Jaret Patterson | Buffalo | 53% |
| Larry Rountree III | Missouri | 52% |
| Travis Etienne | Clemson | 50% |
| Kylin Hill | Mississippi State | 50% |
| Stevie Scott III | Indiana | 40% |
AIR YARDS
Air yards | 2020
| Name | Team | Air yards |
| Jonathan Adams Jr. | Arkansas State | 2108 |
| DeVonta Smith | Alabama | 1765 |
| Dyami Brown | North Carolina | 1680 |
| Tylan Wallace | Oklahoma State | 1552 |
| Seth Williams | Auburn | 1467 |
| Jaelon Darden | North Texas | 1459 |
| Dax Milne | BYU | 1371 |
| Marlon Williams | UCF | 1228 |
| Elijah Moore | Mississippi | 1182 |
Elijah Moore has to be one of the strongest slot wide receivers in the class, but make no mistake: His role as a “slot receiver” didn’t hinder him from making big plays downfield.
Of the 2021 draft class receivers, Moore finished ninth in air yards (1,182), fifth in catches of 20-plus yards (11) and fourth in deep-ball yards (490). On deep targets from the slot, he ranked second in yards and catches.
Percentage of team’s air yards | 2020
| Player | Team | Team air yards share |
| Seth Williams | Auburn | 47% |
| DeVonta Smith | Alabama | 44% |
| Antonio Nunn | Buffalo | 44% |
| Dyami Brown | North Carolina | 41% |
| Simi Fehoko | Stanford | 41% |
| Tylan Wallace | Oklahoma State | 40% |
I was shocked to realize how often Seth Williams was used downfield in Auburn’s offense. Despite sharing the field with speed demon Anthony Schwartz, Williams commanded a 47% air yards share — a mark that ranked fifth-best in the nation in 2020 and No. 1 among the 2021 NFL Draft class.
Williams was Auburn's most productive wide receiver over the past three years, producing a 30% dominator rating over that span. He broke out at an early age (19) in 2018 while playing alongside future New York Giants wide receiver Darius Slayton.
His sheer volume of air yards and end-zone targets is eye-opening; I can’t help but draw comparisons between his usage and that of Gabriel Davis. Davis was a better separator coming out of UCF, but the two have extremely similar builds and athletic testing numbers.
Seth Williams vs. Gabriel Davis
| Height | Weight | Vertical | Broad | Bench | 40-yard | |
| Seth Williams | 6-foot-3 | 211 | 37 | 124 | 12 reps | 4.50 |
| Gabriel Davis | 6-foot-2 | 216 | 35 | 124 | 14 reps | 4.54 |
PFF’s Kevin Cole outlined potential comps for Williams, and his high-end comparison was Alshon Jeffery. Cole also found the same statistical comparison between Davis and Williams.
I don’t like to bet on the big-bodied WRs hitting in the NFL as the league moves away from that type of receiver, but one of these guys probably has a chance to make an impact. I lean Williams.
Per Grindingthemocks.com, Williams is being mocked as the WR14, nearly 10 spots ahead of his teammate Schwartz.
Air yards | 2019
| Player | Team | Air yards |
| Gabriel Davis | UCF | 2307 |
| Antonio Gandy-Golden | Liberty | 2221 |
| Austin Watkins | UAB | 2062 |
| Denzel Mims | Baylor | 1871 |
| James Proche | SMU | 1849 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | LSU | 1818 |
| Damonte Coxie | Memphis | 1788 |
| Rashod Bateman | Minnesota | 1681 |
| John Hightower | Boise State | 1652 |
| Chase Claypool | Notre Dame | 1649 |
| Tee Higgins | Clemson | 1613 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | USC | 1599 |
| Jonathan Adams Jr. | Arkansas State | 1590 |
| Quez Watkins | Southern Mississippi | 1549 |
| Dyami Brown | North Carolina | 1548 |
| Tamorrion Terry | Florida State | 1538 |
| Warren Jackson | Colorado State | 1528 |
| Seth Williams | Auburn | 1519 |
| Antonio Nunn | Buffalo | 1469 |
| Sage Surratt | Wake Forest | 1455 |
| Jalen Reagor | TCU | 1430 |
| Tyler Vaughns | USC | 1429 |
| Tyler Johnson | Minnesota | 1383 |
| K.J. Hamler | Penn State | 1369 |
| Jerry Jeudy | Alabama | 1346 |
| Justin Jefferson | LSU | 1339 |
WRs from the 2020 class added for perspective.
UAB’s Austin Watkins was an air yards monster in 2019, finishing third in total air yards (2,062) and first in team air yards share (45%).
His usage changed in 2020, as he was used closer to the line of scrimmage (15.7 aDOT versus 19.6), and his production dipped as a result. Still, NFL coaches will love his attention to detail in route running and his surefire hands.
UAB's AUSTIN WATKINS ???????????? pic.twitter.com/JhILaCmKRF
— PFF Draft (@PFF_College) January 27, 2021
Per PFF’s NFL Draft Guide, Watkins had one drop on 100 catchable passes in his career.
His biggest knock is underwhelming athleticism, so an impressive pro-day performance would do wonders for his draft stock.
Percentage of team’s air yards | 2019
| Player | Team | Team air yards share |
| Austin Watkins | UAB | 45% |
| Antonio Nunn | Buffalo | 44% |
| Antonio Gandy-Golden | Liberty | 44% |
| Chase Claypool | Notre Dame | 42% |
| Quez Watkins | Southern Mississippi | 42% |
| Rashod Bateman | Minnesota | 41% |
| Denzel Mims | Baylor | 41% |
| Seth Williams | Auburn | 41% |
| Gabriel Davis | UCF | 39% |
| Tamorrion Terry | Florida State | 39% |
| Cade Johnson | South Dakota State | 38% |
| Damonte Coxie | Memphis | 38% |
| Jerry Jeudy | Alabama | 37% |
| K.J. Hamler | Penn State | 36% |
| Warren Jackson | Colorado State | 36% |
| Elijah Moore | Mississippi | 36% |
| Marquez Stevenson | Houston | 36% |
| Jalen Reagor | TCU | 35% |
| James Proche | SMU | 35% |
| John Hightower | Boise State | 35% |
| Darnell Mooney | Tulane | 34% |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | USC | 34% |
| Tyler Johnson | Minnesota | 34% |
Rashod Bateman’s elite team air yards share in 2019 (41%) is a reminder of his upside despite the lackluster 2020 campaign. His sophomore season was special with a 38% dominator rating.
Bateman appeared on PFF’s 2 for 1 Drafts podcast and said he lost nearly 10 pounds due to Covid-19. He weighed 190 pounds at Minnesota’s pro day — a bit of a shock considering his weight was listed at 210 when he played.
With him back to full strength in 2021, I believe we will see the 2019-version of Bateman sooner than later.
TARGETS
Targets | 2020
| Player | School | Targets |
| DeVonta Smith | Alabama | 155 |
| Jonathan Adams Jr. | Arkansas State | 133 |
| Jaelon Darden | North Texas | 114 |
| Marlon Williams | UCF | 112 |
| Elijah Moore | Mississippi | 107 |
| Seth Williams | Auburn | 107 |
| Amari Rodgers | Clemson | 105 |
| Tylan Wallace | Oklahoma State | 101 |
| Dax Milne | BYU | 98 |
| Whop Philyor | Indiana | 94 |
Percentage of team’s targets | 2020
| Player | School | Target share |
| Antonio Nunn | Buffalo | 37% |
| DeVonta Smith | Alabama | 36% |
| Jaelon Darden | North Texas | 34% |
| D'Wayne Eskridge | Western Michican | 33% |
| Rashod Bateman | Minnesota | 32% |
| Shi Smith | South Carolina | 31% |
| Elijah Moore | Mississippi | 31% |
| Whop Philyor | Indiana | 31% |
| Tylan Wallace | Oklahoma State | 29% |
| Seth Williams | Auburn | 29% |
Most NFL wide receivers that flashed as rookies posted high target shares in their final collegiate seasons. The following players earned at least a 26% target share in their final seasons: Tyler Johnson, Chase Claypool, Gabriel Davis, Michael Pittman Jr., Jerry Jeudy, Denzel Mims, Brandon Aiyuk and Darnell Mooney.
There was a fair share of misfires — James Proche, Antonio Gandy-Golden, Devin Duvernay — but the good clearly outweighs the bad.
Proche and Gandy-Golden were both Day 3 picks, and Duvernay went off the board at the end of the third round. If the 2021 WR prospects listed above come in with a high target share and solid Day 2 capital, it bodes well for their futures as pros.
Targets | 2019-20
| Player | Team | Targets |
| James Proche | SMU | 173 |
| Antonio Gandy-Golden | Liberty | 146 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | USC | 146 |
| Gabriel Davis | UCF | 138 |
| Justin Jefferson | LSU | 138 |
| Devin Duvernay | Texas | 136 |
| Damonte Coxie | Memphis | 130 |
| Warren Jackson | Colorado State | 125 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | LSU | 125 |
| Tyler Johnson | Minnesota | 124 |
| Denzel Mims | Baylor | 124 |
| Chase Claypool | Notre Dame | 119 |
| Elijah Moore | Mississippi | 118 |
| Jerry Jeudy | Alabama | 115 |
| Tyler Vaughns | USC | 115 |
| Seth Williams | Auburn | 113 |
| Bryan Edwards | South Carolina | 113 |
| Tamorrion Terry | Florida State | 112 |
| Jaelon Darden | North Texas | 110 |
| Jonathan Adams Jr. | Arkansas State | 108 |
| Quez Watkins | Southern Mississippi | 107 |
| Tutu Atwell | Louisville | 106 |
WRs from the 2020 class added for perspective.
Percentage of team’s targets | 2019
| Name | Team | Team target share |
| Tyler Johnson | Minnesota | 38% |
| Tutu Atwell | Louisville | 36% |
| Elijah Moore | Mississippi | 36% |
| James Proche | SMU | 35% |
| Cade Johnson | South Dakota State | 34% |
| Antonio Nunn | Buffalo | 32% |
| Antonio Gandy-Golden | Liberty | 32% |
| Marquez Stevenson | Houston | 31% |
| Rashod Bateman | Minnesota | 30% |
| Austin Watkins | UAB | 30% |
| Chase Claypool | Notre Dame | 30% |
| Gabriel Davis | UCF | 29% |
| Seth Williams | Auburn | 29% |
| Damonte Coxie | Memphis | 29% |
| Devin Duvernay | Texas | 29% |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | USC | 29% |
| Warren Jackson | Colorado State | 29% |
| Jerry Jeudy | Alabama | 28% |
| Denzel Mims | Baylor | 28% |
| Brandon Aiyuk | Arizona State | 28% |
| K.J. Hamler | Penn State | 27% |
| Tylan Wallace | Oklahoma State | 27% |
| Darnell Mooney | Tulane | 26% |
| Jauan Jennings | Tennessee | 26% |
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