As Week 8 fast approaches, we've without question reached a point of statistical significance, where the players' production is meaningfully predictive of what to expect moving forward. While some defensive backs have started off on too-hot-to-sustain paces, there is enough data available at this point to begin to effectively distinguish the emergent premium performers from the has-beens and never-will-bes. Here's a look at the defensive backs who have outperformed and underperformed expectations, along with some breakout candidates whose statistical production has thus far been subdued…
STARS AS EXPECTED
Charles Woodson, CB, Green Bay Packers
Woodson is a clear case of a player past his prime; his -9.3 overall PFF rating is 91st overall of the 98 cornerbacks who have played in at least 25% of their team's snaps. In other words, the once-elite Woodson is now perhaps even more valuable in IDP because he puts up big fantasy production for many of the wrong reasons (oft-targeted, because a large percentage of those targets are successful, but many more passes-defensed and INT opportunities as a consequence of that). And yet, his spot on the Packers' roster is secure, so unlike other bottom-tier corners, Woodson isn't in imminent danger of riding the pine. But his precipitous fall from grace (Woodson posted a league-best +32.7 rating in 2009 and slipped to -0.7 in 2010) is a cautionary tale for just how quickly most elite players lose their game when they hit their mid-30's.
Charles Tillman, CB, Chicago Bears
A top-10 preseason DB pick by all three our IDP prognosticators, Tillman hasn't disappointed. He's posted a solid +3.1 coverage rating while netting 69 points (4th amongst CBs) based upon PFF's perfect IDP scoring system. Tillman's production is nice and predictable, as he is always in on a lot of tackles. As a result, the occasional big plays can turn him from “very solid” to “elite” IDP in the blink of an eye. Though there are some signs that Tillman is slipping a bit, he's still plenty good, and his job with the Bears is quite secure.
Darrelle Revis, CB, New York Jets
Back in 2009, when Revis cemented his reputation as one of the NFL's all-time best corners, he managed to put up very solid fantasy points while at the same time posting an elite-level 31.5 rating (2nd best, ironically, to Woodson). Last year, Revis was hurt and both his PFF and IDP/fantasy numbers suffered. But this year, Revis is healthy and dominant. The difference between him and Asomugha (Raiders-era) was that in Oakland, Asomugha was tasked with shutting down one side of the field. As a result, opposing offensive coordinators could redirect the talent to the opposite side, and simultaneously enjoy a shortened QB read progression. No surprise what the result turned out to be with regard to Asomugha's IDP value. But with Revis consistently matched against the opposition's top wideout, it sets up a situation where he's inevitably going to be targeted at least somewhat regularly. The results are predictable both with regard to real and fantasy football. I'm only sorry I didn't rank him higher in the preseason.
Quintin Mikell, S, St. Louis Rams
Mikell was one of the NFL's most under appreciated players while with the Eagles, where the likes of Michael Vick and DeSean Jackson stole all of the spotlight. This season, Mikell is again the NFL's top-ranked safety (+17.5) and is also a top-10 IDP performer. He remains a virtual must-start in all IDP leagues.
OUTPERFORMING EXPECTATIONS
Kam Chancellor, S, Seattle Seahawks
With IDP, there are always plenty of examples of players performing poorly but yielding big fantasy numbers. So it's always nice to see when the production and skill engage, as was the case with Chiefs rookie Eric Berry last season. This year, one of the nicest surprises has been the emergence of Kam Chancellor. He's posted a +9.9 rating, and has shown up well against both the pass (+4.2) and run (+5.6). His 68 points are fourth-most amongst safeties in the PFF IDP Experts' League, and the sophomore from Virginia Tech is quickly becoming one of the best value picks in the 2010 Draft (pick #2 in the 5th round).
Lardarius Webb, CB, Baltimore Ravens
Heading into 2011, rookie Jimmy Smith was the sexy CB pick from the Ravens. But it's been Webb who's emerged as a highly valuable asset, posting a stellar +6.2 rating (sixth-best amongst qualifying corners) while delivering top-notch fantasy production in five of six games thus far this season. Webb is capable of delivering big plays here and there, but his value remains consistent because of his big tackle numbers. When Smith starts wreaking havoc on the opposite side, look for both players' numbers to go through the roof, at least for as long as Terrell Suggs, Ray Lewis, and Ed Reed form the centerpiece of what is still one of the league's most-feared defense corps.
Eric Smith, S, New York Jets
The Jets' defense has yielded some very big surprises this season, including the recently-emergent OLB Aaron Maybin. But perhaps the biggest IDP surprise of all has been Smith, who has slowly and steadily emerged as a very reliable fantasy asset. Of course, sometimes the production isn't a good thing (see: Woodson) and that's starting to show to be the case here. After a strong start, Smith's game has slipped dramatically in recent weeks; his -5.0 rating is 79th overall amongst eligible safeties, driven down sharply by a combined -5.7 ranking in weeks 5 through 7.
DISAPPOINTMENTS
Aqib Talib, CB, Tampa Bay Buccanneers
There has been plenty of disappointment to go around in Tampa, but Talib certainly deserves a spot near the top of the list. His off-the-field shenanigans have him seemingly constantly on the verge of suspension or arrest. Amazingly, he hasn't missed any time this season, but when he's been visible on the field, it's rarely been for good reasons. His -4.3 rating is due almost entirely to his unacceptable -4.2 penalty rating (fourth-worst amongst 98 qualifying corners). And his 44 points make him the 33rd best fantasy CB thus far. In other words, Talib is at best mediocre and at worst a liability, both in reality and fantasy.
Antonio Cromartie, CB, New York Jets
Though Cromartie consistently gets the easier assignments, he hasn't made the most of his opportunities, posting a horrible -8.0 ranking while tallying only 46 fantasy points. With Cromartie's otherworldly athleticism, what we should be seeing is a boom/bust stat track that includes at least a couple of game-breaking performances. But what we've gotten (one big game against a terrible Jaguars team, two acceptable performances against the Raiders and Patriots, and virtually nothing else to speak of) simply isn't going to cut it.
BUY LOW CANDIDATES
Mike Jenkins, CB, Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys' defense hasn't exactly been fearsome thus far, and Jenkins' only strong fantasy performance came against an A.J. Feeley-led Rams offense in Week 7, but there's still reasons to like Jenkins as the season progresses. He promises to be very busy on Sunday night going against some combination of DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, and his +1.6 rating is a good sign that the atrocious play that marked his 2010 campaign is behind him. However, there are causes for concern as well, most notably poor two poor performances (against New England and San Francisco) that are holding back his overall rating. On the fantasy side, his 30 points are fairly mediocre, but if he can build upon a strong Week 7 game, he'll have the opportunity to put up huge numbers in Week 8. Buy low, indeed…
Bernard Pollard, S, Baltimore Ravens
Banished from Houston's now-gone 4-3 defense where he put up huge numbers in 2009 (PFF IDP scoring system-leading 158 points in only 13 games) and 2010 (151 points, 9th-best), it appeared that Pollard (-6.1 in 2010, 70th best amongst qualifying safeties) might struggle to find another starting role. But an injury to Tom Zbikowski paved the way for Pollard to get a shot at Dawan Landry's old spot in the Ravens' defense, and he's thriving. Pollard's posted a strong +3.7 rating (ninth-best) and has re-emerged as a valuable fantasy asset (21 points in Weeks 6 and 7 combined, 9th-best). Pick him up on the cheap while you can.
Amari Spievey, S, Detroit Lions
Spievey hasn't performed particularly well by PFF measures (-7.9 overall, -6.1 in coverage), but he's making the transition from corner to safety, and so the second-year player will get more time to hone his skills. In the meanwhile, look for him to continue to put up top-notch IDP stats at first for bad reasons (frequently targeted) but eventually for the right reasons.
If you enjoyed By The Numbers, check out the earlier articles in the series on defensive linemen and linebackers.
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