In the first edition of a 3-part series looking at the separate tiers of skill position prospects in the 2012 NFL Draft, I'll focus on Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Trent Richardson, Justin Blackmon, Dwayne Allen, and Coby Fleener. I will start by breaking down how they project from the college game and then go into detail on which teams are most suitable, and why. Then I’ll let you know what to expect in their rookie season and beyond.
(Note: This tier 1 is looking at what I consider to be the top of the class at their respective positions. Therefore not necessarily does a tier 1 TE mean a top 10 pick)
QB Andrew Luck, Stanford
Breakdown:
What is there to say that hasn't already been said? Quite simply, Andrew Luck is the best QB prospect I've ever seen. At times, he can come off as boring with how good he is. His intangibles are off the charts, from the commanding cadence under center or the degree in architectural design, to the way that he will dissect college defenses before the snap better than many do in the pros. His tangibles aren't so bad either, with plus athleticism, a durable body type, and the ability to throw the ball with either touch or power, both accurately when standing or on the move. The only concerns (if you can call them that) for Andrew Luck are that he was protected by one of the best offensive lines in college and that the Stanford offense (as seen by the success of Alex Smith with Jim Harbaugh) is rather, for lack of a better word, QB friendly.
Potential Suitor(s):
Indianapolis Colts (1st overall)
It won’t take much convincing to tell you why the Colts should take Andrew Luck with the 1st overall pick, but I’ll do it anyways. For one, Peyton Manning is gone. For two, you’re sitting on a gold mine by picking 1st overall with the once in a generation signal caller knocking at your door. If you’re not convinced yet for some reason, I’ll elaborate.
The Colts were the 7th worst passing offense in the NFL last year with a -30.0 rating. Only 3 times did an Indianapolis starting QB grade positively last year, Week 5 by Curtis Painter against the Chiefs and weeks 13/16 by Dan Orlovsky. And don’t tell the other guys that I told you this, but our graders are very lenient when it comes to grading quarterbacks. The fact that 18 quarterbacks graded positively for the season and both Carson Palmer and Donovan McNabb are included in that group is your proof. Indy was also the 2nd worst run blocking offensive line in football for 2011. Having a quarterback like Andrew Luck with the ability to check plays at the line of scrimmage combined with new offensive coordinator Bruce Arian’s wanting to bring in a “blue collar” mentality to the offense should improve that. When you’re that far down there’s nowhere to go but up.
Outlook:
For Andrew Luck’s rookie season, don’t expect Cam Newton type of fantasy production. While it’s very early in the process, the Colts still have plenty of other holes to fill, all which likely can’t be done in one offseason. Reggie Wayne returning was a surprising move but takes some pressure of the offense off the shoulders of the quarterback. Though his ability to read defenses will come with its share of rookie mistakes (keep in mind Peyton Manning threw for a still rookie record 28 interception his first year) Indianapolis has another QB wrapped up for at least 10 years in Andrew Luck.
QB Robert Griffin III, Baylor
Breakdown:
I have been a fan of Robert Griffin III for some time now, but as usual the media takes the hype a step too far. In all honesty, RG3 doesn’t belong in the same tier as Andrew Luck, which is what some would have you believe (including me in this article, technically). That’s not taking anything away from Griffin, as he is still a legit top 5 franchise QB nonetheless. There are just more question marks with his game.
Transitioning from a bit of a gimmicky offense does that to a prospect. At Baylor in Art Briles’s wonderfully crafted offense, Griffin III had an artificially high 72.4% completion percentage his senior year and at one point in the season had more touchdown passes than incompletions. He has a deep ball that matches that of Cam Newton, who in his rookie year ranked 5th in the league in yards on balls thrown 20+ yards downfield. While the zone read, designed pump-fake, or talented receivers certainly helped Griffin III complete these with greater accuracy, his ability to hit his man in stride on the deep routes has no rival in this class. While RG3 does need to work on his footwork/ability to read defenses (as all products of the spread offense do), consistent delivery, and touch passes – the goods are there.
Potential Suitor(s):
Washington Redskins (2nd overall)
How can the Washington Redskins take a quarterback with the 2nd overall pick when they have Rex Grossman already at that position, you say? Oh, you weren’t saying that? Very well, then. The Redskins traded up to the 2nd pick and the secret is out that they like RG3, as they should. The fact that Washington threw for 3773 yards last season was a downright miracle, and a testament to the Redskins coaching staff. Grossman’s 13.3% of passes thrown 20+ yards downfield is a rather high number considering that he led the NFL in interceptions on those same passes (10) on only 61 attempts. To put that into perspective, Aaron Rodgers only threw 1 interception on the same amount of attempts of passes 20 or more yards downfield. This shows that Washington will no doubt have the willingness to utilize the best asset of RG3. On top of that, the front office acquired a pair of receivers this offseason who should bolster the deep passing for Washington in Josh Morgan and Pierre Garcon.
Outlook:
For RG3’s rookie season, he could be the better fantasy producer than Andrew Luck. His surrounding cast looks to be better and the team overall around him appears to be superior. Griffin also has an offense that will utilize his running ability much more for an easy 6 fantasy points in the redzone. Still, RG3 is much more of a gamble as we’re not so sure what to expect due to his not having played in a conventional pro-style offense. At Baylor, the offense was more scripted than any offense in the NFL is, so it’s tough to know how quickly Griffin will latch on. He’s a smart kid so it shouldn’t take him too long. And if we learned anything from Cam Newton, if he has a bad preseason completely disregard it. (I’m only being slightly sarcastic there)
RB Trent Richardson, Alabama
Breakdown:
Richardson is the hands down best running back prospect in the draft. He also may just be the best RB prospect in the past 10 years. While hindsight may have people saying “what about Adrian Peterson” must I remind you that Trent Richardson has better ball security and is already a superior pass protector at this point in his career than Peterson now. You look up the term “high and tight” for securing the football and Richardson’s picture is right there. At the one yard line, even against Patrick Willis, I would give the edge to Trent Richardson in getting that yard with his low center of gravity and lower body strength. On top of that, he has the ability to make defenders miss and the patience to follow his blockers. Sure, they were very good blockers at Alabama (the best OL in the nation, in fact) but Trent Richardson is the rare exception to the devaluation of the RB position.
Potential Suitor(s):
Cleveland Browns (4th), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5th)
Cleveland lost Peyton Hillis in the offseason with little resistance and has a stable of unproven/fragile running backs on the roster. Aside from positional value (from which I am a pretty strong proponent of to be honest with you) he is a slam dunk for a Cleveland fanbase that loves its power running game. While GM Tom Heckert likes to trade around, the franchise that still regrets passing on LaDanian Tomlinson and Adrian Peterson might hate him for it. The current offensive line isn’t exactly well-suited for power running, as FB Owen Marecic is the only starting blocker returning to the team next season with a positive run block rating in 2011. That list of negatively graded run blockers includes LT Joe Thomas, LG Jason Pinkston, C Alex Mack, RG Shawn Lauvao, TE Ben Watson, and TE Alex Smith.
With Tampa Bay, veteran LeGarrette Blount is a talented running back but he’s also thought to be in the dog house. Issues with fumbling (five times in 184 carries), catching (-1.4 receiving rating in 2011), and attitude will do that to a player. The depth at the position is also extremely weak, as Kregg Lumpkin (-8.5 overall rating) just wasn’t cutting it as the spell RB. Adding Carl Nicks to the fold and pairing him at guard with Davin Joseph sounds like a match made in heaven for Trent Richardson to run between the tackles.
Outlook:
With the limited lifespan of running backs, expect whichever team that gets Richardson to use him often to get their money’s worth. This may be bold, but in my mind he’s already a top 10 dynasty running back without even knowing which team he goes to. His skillset is the type which you rarely want to leave the field and he’s guaranteed to be the go-to guy in the redzone. The only thing working against Trent Richardson’s 2012 fantasy season is the fact that 5 of the 8 running backs taken in the first 3 rounds of the 2011 NFL Draft spent significant time on the injury list (Mikel LeShoure, Ryan Williams, Mark Ingram, Alex Green, DeMarco Murray). Will his body be ready for the impact of the NFL game? Still, expect good production from my #2 overall prospect Trent Richardson.
WR Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State
Breakdown:
Justin Blackmon is your super productive college WR, with whom is always accompanied by the question – does the potential meet the production? There is a bit of dissent on this topic, but in my opinion Blackmon is just a notch above the rest of the wideouts, making him my only WR in tier 1. He may not be in the A.J. Green class, but few receivers are. What the Oklahoma State receiver who measured in at just a smidge under 6’1 will bring to whichever team he lands is a #1 wide receiver mentality. He wants the ball and most times it is a good idea to give it to him. Most college WR have difficulty at selling their routes, but Justin Blackmon his entire career garnered a 5 yard cushion due to respect for his ability to do so. The Cowboys offense went out of their way to get him the ball, but he was never shut down in his career, which is something no other WR in this draft class can say.
Potential Suitor(s):
Cleveland Browns (4th), St. Louis Rams (6th), Jacksonville Jaguars (7th)
Many of these teams picking in the top 10 have one thing in common – a young quarterback with a lack of wide receivers. Of course, it could be a chicken/egg scenario where the young quarterback just isn’t good enough to make their current wideouts look better, but that’s a sticky situation not worth getting into. Fact remains, any team in the NFL can use another wide receiver with the exception of maybe the Green Bay Packers. With teams paying (many would argue overpaying) for receivers like Pierre Garcon or Laurent Robinson, the demand is clearly high for guys who can catch the ball.
Cleveland has one legit target at receiver (Greg Little) and he was one of the NFL leaders in dropped balls last season. While they may prefer a receiver to compliment Little that takes the top off the defense or one not at pick 4, Colt McCoy (if that is who the Browns are putting under center this year) needs all the help that he can get. On top of that, he has gotten none so far this offseason. St. Louis has tendered Danny Amendola and signed Steve Smith, but after losing Brandon Lloyd, Sam Bradford and the Rams could really use a go-to wideout. Lastly, the Jaguars may have signed Laurent Robinson but it’s doubtful that he’s much more than a complimentary receiver and Jacksonville fans have begged for a real receiver ever since Jimmy Smith retired.
Outlook:
Justin Blackmon would have been a fantastic fantasy player in college, but like all rookie wideouts the transition will be tough. If Blackmon lands on any of those teams, the quarterback play will need vast improvements for him to be considered a top wideout by fantasy standards. In fact, a receiver landing with a more proven QB might just be preferred by myself over Blackmon, at least in his first year. But over the long run, Justin Blackmon’s potential has him as my top WR in the draft.
TE Dwayne Allen, Clemson
Breakdown:
He may not have the elite speed (4.78 40 yard dash) or height (6’3) to be the talk of the town, but unlike many tight end prospects these days, Dwayne Allen stands out in the lost art that is blocking. In the day and age of the specialized player (a TE who can only block or only catch), the in-line blocking tight end who can also catch is becoming a rarity. Allen possesses a soft pair of hands and while he may not make many defenders miss, he’s dependable and can even play fullback.
Potential Suitor(s):
Pittsburgh Steelers (24th), Indianapolis Colts (34th)
Heath Miller is one of the best blocking tight ends in the game now, but he’ll also be 30 next season and Pittsburgh always seems to be ahead of the curve in replacing players before it is too late. Last year, only he and Weslye Saunders saw snaps at TE, so the position could obviously use depth. With the Indianapolis Colts, they would be crazy to not consider Dwayne Allen. The team cut Dallas Clark and Jacob Tamme went to Denver in free agency, leaving Brody Eldridge and his –15.6 overall rating (-8.7 run block rating) as the starter for now. New offensive coordinator Bruce Arians (who happens to also be the former coordinator of the Steelers and Heath Miller) probably isn’t satisfied with that, and if he wants a blue collar mentality on offense there’s no reason to be. Andrew Luck would probably like the upgrade as well.
Outlook:
Dwayne Allen might not be a fantasy stud at TE, but he will be just as much of an asset to whichever team he lands with. He’ll be overlooked by many but what he brings to the table is similar to that of a Heath Miller. Or if he can find himself on an offense with a QB who can get him the ball, maybe even a Jason Witten.
TE Coby Fleener, Stanford
Breakdown:
Unlike Dwayne Allen, Coby Fleener does have the speed (sub 4.5 40 yard dash) and height (6’6) to draw the eye of the cameras. While he does have some blocking ability (as a very TE-centric Stanford offense asked upon him) it’s not quite refined just yet. Fleener has very good body control and is bound to make an impact in the redzone. With a spectacular catch sprinkled in now and then he should become a fan favorite and will likely be selected earlier than the previously mentioned Dwayne Allen.
Potential Suitor(s):
Chicago Bears (19th), San Francisco 49ers (30th)
Gone is Mike Martz’s anti-TE offense, and after trading away Greg Olsen last year, tight end may just become a need again. 19 is a bit earlier than most are slotting Fleener, but with the success of Jimmy Graham and as hot as his stock has been, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Chicago add him as yet another weapon for Jay Cutler. With the 49ers, it’s no secret that coach Jim Harbaugh would love to have his old TE from Stanford on his team – even with Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker already in his pocket. While it may not be possible for him to last until 30th anymore, the 49ers are likely the lowest that Fleener could fall and a trade-up from San Francisco wouldn’t surprise me one bit.
Outlook:
With the early production of a Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski, there’s a ton of hype surrounding the fantasy production of Coby Fleener. Not to say it isn’t warranted, but much depends on where he lands. Must we not forget the guys who are throwing it to Graham and Gronk go by the names Drew Brees and Tom Brady. They are pretty good. And these offenses go out of their way to get them the ball too. Expecting the same from Fleener without even knowing where he’ll land doesn’t seem very realistic. Still, keep an eye on the Stanford product and where he ends up at the end of the month.
That's all I've got for now with Tier 1. Let me know if you agree/disagree and feel free to follow me on Twitter @MDaneshgar.
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