• James Madison is the favorite: The Dukes are 5-1 on the backs of first-year QB Alonza Barnett III.
• Ashton Jeanty propelling Boise State: The Broncos are the lone ranked Group of 5 team and remain dangerous with the Heisman frontrunner.
• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all of our in-season fantasy tools, including weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer and more. Sign up now!
Estimated reading time: 8 minutes
There have already been several fascinating stories pertaining to the College Football Playoff race. The race for a Group of Five playoff spot, or multiple, is going to be tight through the end of the regular season.
Here, we’ll quickly examine the top Group of Five playoff contenders at the approximate halfway point of the season.
*Playoff Percentages based on PFF Power Rankings.
James Madison Dukes
Record: 5-1
Chance to make playoff: 37%
Key games remaining: vs. Coastal Carolina; @ Appalachian State
We start with James Madison, which had been playing incredibly well until a close loss to Louisiana-Monroe last week. The Dukes still have a chance to make the playoff with an impressive win over North Carolina on their resumé and the rest of a competitive Sun Belt schedule in front of them.
The keys to the Dukes’ success have been the outstanding play of first-year starting quarterback Alonza Barnett III and an outstanding coverage unit that currently ranks ninth in the nation in coverage grade. If they can win out, they may be able to avenge their lone loss in the Sun Belt title game.
Boise State Broncos
Record: 4-1
Chance to make playoff: 16%
Key games remaining: @ UNLV, @ San Jose State, vs. Oregon State
Despite what the percentages may say, the Broncos currently have the clearest path to the playoff. They are already the only Group of Five team ranked in the AP Top 25 Poll, and their lone loss came on a last second field goal to No. 3 Oregon. Running the table in an extremely competitive Mountain West would nearly guarantee their selection by the CFP committee.
Boise State is, of course, led by superstar running back Ashton Jeanty, who continues to produce at a near-record setting pace. If its defense can survive games against teams like UNLV and Oregon State, Jeanty could carry them to the promised land.
Tulane Green Wave
Record: 4-2
Chance to make playoff: 15%
Key games remaining: @ North Texas, @ Navy, vs. Memphis
Redshirt freshman quarterback Darian Mensah has been outstanding for the Green Wave as Jon Sumrall seeks a playoff berth in his first year as Tulane’s head coach. They played reasonably well against ranked Power Five opponents Kansas State and Oklahoma but couldn’t come away victorious on either occasion.
However, Tulane has several big games left on its schedule, against teams like North Texas, Navy and Memphis, so it will have opportunities to gain ground in the playoff race. Mensah and star running back Makhi Hughes have led a lethal attack that has averaged over 40 points per game so far. If they continue to assert that level of dominance the rest of the way, they stand a fighting chance to make the playoff.
Texas State Bobcats
Record: 3-2
Chance to make playoff: 12%
Key games remaining: vs. Louisiana, @ Louisiana-Monroe
Having two losses on their resumé is tough, but the Bobcats have a high flying offense led by ex-James Madison quarterback Jordan McClous. Both of those losses were by three points or fewer, and one of them was to a resurgent Arizona State team that currently sits at 4-1.
Texas State would have to run the table, but games against Louisiana and Louisiana-Monroe stand out as redemption opportunities. The Bobcats could also see a very good team such as Coastal Carolina or James Madison in the Sun Belt title game.
Liberty Flames
Record: 5-0
Chance to make playoff: 7%
Key games remaining: vs. Western Kentucky, @ Sam Houston State
Given a relatively weak Conference USA schedule, Liberty may be the most likely team to go undefeated this season. Quarterback Kaidon Salter and running back Quinton Cooley form the most dynamic duo in the conference.
The issue for the Flames is a very easy schedule in which the best team they may play is Sam Houston State. They also lost an opportunity to play a non-conference game against Appalachian State that was canceled due to Hurricane Helene. Liberty will likely need help elsewhere to make the playoff, even if it finishes the season undefeated.
Toledo Rockets
Record: 4-1
Chance to make playoff: 7%
Key games remaining: @ Northern Illinois, @ Eastern Michigan
Toledo is a strange case in that it dominated an SEC opponent in Mississippi State, then lost the following week to Western Kentucky. When the Rockets have struggled, it’s been because of a pass protection unit that currently ranks as the fourth-worst in the nation.
The MAC offers the opportunity to pick up some nice wins against teams like Northern Illinois and Eastern Michigan, but Toledo would likely have to dominate the rest of the way in order to be seriously considered for one of the 12 playoff spots.
Army Black Knights
Record: 5-0
Chance to make playoff: 4%
Key games remaining: @ North Texas, vs. Notre Dame
The Black Knights have steamrolled their competition so far with their triple option attack. They’ve outscored their opponents 194-49, and quarterback Bryson Daily is the third-highest-graded starting quarterback in the FBS.
Several complications arise when projecting Army’s playoff chances. First, the team faces Notre Dame at Yankee Stadium in late November. A win could catapult the Black Knights into prime playoff contention. Second, they don’t play Navy, which is also currently undefeated, until after the selection committee makes its choices. However, it’s possible that Army could see its bitter rival in the American Athletic Conference title game. The academy schools will be fascinating to watch moving forward.
Navy Midshipmen
Record: 5-0
Chance to make playoff: 4%
Key games remaining: vs. Notre Dame, vs. Tulane
Navy’s situation is strikingly similar to Army’s. The Midshipmen are currently undefeated. They have dominated their opposition. Their quarterback, Blake Horvath, is currently the highest-graded starting quarterback in the FBS. The Midshipmen also boast the fifth-highest graded defense in the FBS, so it’s been a balanced effort.
Similar to Army, their playoff chances would be greatly boosted by an upset victory over Notre Dame, whom they play in a few weeks at MetLife Stadium. Even if Navy doesn’t pull that off, a late-season victory over Tulane and an American title game victory could put the Midshipmen in serious consideration for a playoff spot.
North Texas Mean Green
Record: 4-1
Chance to make playoff: 4%
Key games remaining: @ Memphis, vs. Tulane, vs. Army
The Mean Green won’t have the advantage of a Power Five win, as they were dominated in September by Texas Tech. However, they won their first conference game and have opportunities to make up ground against good opponents like Tulane, Memphis and Army.
Per usual, North Texas has a high-powered passing attack. This season, the team is led by former TCU starter Chandler Morris, who currently owns the seventh-best passing grade in the FBS. If the Mean Green can improve their trench play through the tougher part of their American schedule, they still have a chance to prove themselves worthy of a playoff spot.
Memphis Tigers
Record: 4-1
Chance to make playoff: 4%
Key games remaining: vs. North Texas, @ Tulane
The Tigers were one of the preseason favorites to make the playoff. They boosted their case with a win at Florida State, but a subsequent loss to Navy muddles their chances a bit. Memphis has a chance to recover, but it will need wins over fellow contenders North Texas and Tulane.
The Tigers will need more production from quarterback Seth Henigan, who owns just a 65.8 passing grade since Week 2. Memphis is a balanced team, though, and should continue to recover from that previous defeat.
UNLV Rebels
Record: 4-1
Chance to make playoff: 3%
Key games remaining: @ Oregon State, vs. Boise State, @ San Jose State
Between its victories over two Big 12 opponents, a narrow loss to Syracuse and the departure of starting quarterback Matthew Sluka, UNLV has been one of the most fascinating stories of the season. If the Rebels can overcome a tough Mountain West schedule, including a matchup with Boise State, they could end up as the most likely team of this group to make the playoff.
Working in their favor is that quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams has played very well after Sluka’s departure. Star wide receiver Ricky White is also starting to find his rhythm after a slow start. We will know everything we need to know about the Rebels after their October matchups with Oregon State and Boise State.
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.