• Three quarterbacks in top four picks: Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson all hear their names called within the first four picks in this mock draft.
• Will Levis lands at No. 6 overall: Not to be forgotten, Levis slides to the Detroit Lions‘ selection in the top 10.
Estimated reading time: 13 minutes
Free agency kicks off the 2023 league year this week; therefore, over the next couple of weeks, we will see the immediate needs of teams around the league shift based on the additions and subtractions they make via signings, cuts and trades. With that in mind, I opted to do a “What I would do” mock draft as things stand before the league year begins.
1. CAROLINA PANTHERS (VIA CHI): QB BRYCE YOUNG, ALABAMA
Bottom line in PFF's 2023 NFL Draft Guide: An offensive coordinator will have to do some things to scheme around Young's height, but it's a small price to pay for everything else he brings to the table.
Moving down makes too much sense for the Bears, and if the Panthers want to guarantee a shot at Bryce Young, who produced PFF passing grades above 90.0 in each of the past two seasons, they need to get to No. 1 overall. I suspect, in the end, the pick here will be Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud, but if it were up to me, I’d go with Young.
2. HOUSTON TEXANS: QB C.J. STROUD, OHIO STATE
Bottom line in PFF's 2023 NFL Draft Guide: As a passer, Stroud is nothing like the other two first-round quarterbacks who came out of Ohio State before him. And that bodes well for his NFL prospects.
Many thought that the Texans would wind up moving up to No. 1, but the Bears were able to land a huge haul by moving down to No. 9 with Carolina. The Texans shouldn’t feel too disheartened though, with Stroud producing 27 and 29 big-time throws in each of the past two seasons.
3. ARIZONA CARDINALS: ED WILL ANDERSON, ALABAMA
Bottom line in PFF's 2023 NFL Draft Guide: Elite production and elite tools. That's an easy combination to draft highly.
This could be another trade-down spot with someone looking to move up for a quarterback, but if the Cardinals stay at No. 3, they can land the top edge defender in the class. Anderson racked up 37 sacks, 36 hits and 134 hurries from 1,223 pass-rushing snaps in college.
4. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: QB ANTHONY RICHARDSON, FLORIDA
Bottom line in PFF's 2023 NFL Draft Guide: High-end play wins Super Bowls, and no one has a higher end in this class than Richardson. Now, what are the chances he reaches that or even comes close?
The Colts might not wind up with one of the top two quarterbacks in the class, but they also don’t have to give up future draft capital and still land a potential franchise signal caller. Richardson registered 19 big-time throws and forced 39 missed tackles as a runner this past season.
5. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (VIA DEN): DI JALEN CARTER, GEORGIA
Bottom line in PFF's 2023 NFL Draft Guide: Carter is as good a DT prospect as we've seen since we started grading college in 2014. A complete prospect.
As things stand, Carter still feels likely to be a top-five pick.
6. DETROIT LIONS (VIA LAR): QB WILL LEVIS, KENTUCKY
Bottom line in PFF's 2023 NFL Draft Guide: Levis' tape has so much to like from a tools and NFL-readiness standpoint, but his accuracy — or lack thereof — is borderline untenable at this point.
Jared Goff can still be the starter in 2023, but the Lions look like they will be too good a team in the near future to be this close to landing a potential franchise quarterback again. The Lions still have No. 18 overall to attack an impact playmaker on defense.
7. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: CB CHRISTIAN GONZALEZ, OREGON
Bottom line in PFF's 2023 NFL Draft Guide: Gonzalez is the total package physically. He's got all-pro tools but just needs a little refinement to get there.
Gonzalez has all the tools to be an All-Pro in the NFL. He impressed with some incredible workout numbers in Indianapolis and posted 10 combined pass breakups and interceptions at Oregon in 2022.
8. ATLANTA FALCONS: ED TYREE WILSON, TEXAS TECH
Bottom line in PFF's 2023 NFL Draft Guide: No edge prospect manhandled offensive tackles more than Wilson last year. That's a defensive lineman who can play for any scheme.
If the Falcons indeed are content to roll with Desmond Ridder at quarterback, landing a defensive lineman with an 86-inch wingspan would feel like a win on draft night. Wilson had his best pass-rushing season in college last year, racking up 50 pressures from 257 pass-blocking snaps.
9. CHICAGO BEARS: WR QUENTIN JOHNSTON, TCU
Bottom line in PFF's 2023 NFL Draft Guide: It's all there. Johnston has every uncoachable physical tool.
Both Chase Claypool and Darnell Mooney are free agents after the 2023 season so just because the Bears acquired D.J. Moore in the trade, it doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be in the market for another WR here. Surround Justin Fields with as many weapons as possible heading into the year which likely decides his future.
10. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: WR JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA, OHIO STATE
Bottom line in PFF's 2023 NFL Draft Guide: If you don't have a well-defined slot role in your offense, JSN isn't worth a first-rounder. If you do, he should be your WR1.
It might be more sensible for the Eagles to retool their defensive line through the draft, but chalk this up as something I just want to see happen. Adding the player who outproduced Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave on a per-snap basis in 2021 to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith is a trio we deserve to see on the field together.
11. TENNESSEE TITANS: T PETER SKORONSKI, NORTHWESTERN
Bottom line in PFF's 2023 NFL Draft Guide: Skoronski has the highest floor of any offensive lineman in the draft class. It may just come at guard, though.
The question with Skoronski will be if he needs to kick inside to guard at the next level, but his level of play at Northwestern, where he allowed just six pressures on 474 pass-blocking snaps last season, is not in question.
12. HOUSTON TEXANS (VIA CLE): CB DEVON WITHERSPOON, ILLINOIS
Bottom line in PFF's 2023 NFL Draft Guide: Witherspoon may not have an elite physical skill set for the position, but his senior-year tape was as good as we've seen in our nine years of college grading.
In an ideal world, the Texans would love to grab Quentin Johnston here, but with him off the board to the Cardinals, I simply opted to take the highest-ranked player remaining on the PFF big board. Witherspoon allowed just 22 receptions and had 17 combined pass breakups and interceptions in 2022.
13. GREEN BAY PACKERS (VIA NYJ): ED LUKAS VAN NESS, IOWA
(Trade: Jets send No. 13 overall, Packers send QB Aaron Rodgers)
Bottom line in PFF's 2023 NFL Draft Guide: Van Ness has one of the weirder prospect profiles in the draft class, but it's one I'm willing to bet on.
Van Ness put up a 4.58-second 40-yard dash at 272 pounds at the NFL combine after registering nine sacks, six hits and 31 hurries from 271 pass-rushing snaps in 2022.
14. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: DB BRIAN BRANCH, ALABAMA
Bottom line in PFF's 2023 NFL Draft Guide: Branch is a very high-floor defender with a skill set that can fit into every defense in the NFL.
Branch feels like the type of versatile defensive back that the Patriots would like to add. Spending most of his time in the slot for Alabama in 2022, he allowed just 36 receptions from 416 snaps in coverage.
15. GREEN BAY PACKERS: TE DALTON KINCAID, UTAH
Bottom line in PFF's 2023 NFL Draft Guide: You'd like him to be a little bigger to make defenses respect him as a blocker, but he's the best receiving tight end in the class.
The center of the Utes' passing attack in 2022, Kincaid averaged 2.42 yards per route run. He would give new starting quarterback Jordan Love a solid target in the middle of the field.
16. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS: T PARIS JOHNSON, OHIO STATE
Bottom line in PFF's 2023 NFL Draft Guide: You can expect some growing pains early on due to Johnson's limited experience, but that's the nature of the tackle position. If he's dedicated to his craft, he'll be a stud.
This feels like a no-brainer if the board falls this way. Johnson Jr.’s PFF pass-blocking grade improved every season at Ohio State, and he allowed just 14 total pressures from 449 pass-blocking snaps in 2022.
17. PITTSBURGH STEELERS: CB JOEY PORTER JR., PENN STATE
Bottom line in PFF's 2023 NFL Draft Guide: Porter is a high football IQ cornerback with the kind of size and physicality everyone is looking for. If he were a slightly better athlete, he'd be a top-10 pick.
A trendy spot for Porter Jr. to land given it’s where his father played for so long, but this is also just a good fit because the Steelers badly need to upgrade at the cornerback position. From 275 coverage snaps in 2022, Porter Jr. allowed just 15 receptions.
18. DETROIT LIONS: DI CALIJAH KANCEY, PITTSBURGH
Bottom line in PFF's 2023 NFL Draft Guide: He may have to start off as a designated pass-rusher, but he can truly excel in that role. There's little doubt he's going to impact QBs at the next level.
After drafting their quarterback of the future with the sixth pick, the Lions land an impact defender at No. 18. Kancey was dominant on the interior of the Panthers' defensive line in 2022, producing a 92.4 PFF pass-rushing grade that led all interior defenders.
19. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: T BRODERICK JONES, GEORGIA
Bottom line in PFF's 2023 NFL Draft Guide: Another year of seasoning could have made Jones a top-five pick. He still may end up close to that range with his dominant physical skill set.
Given that they are rebuilding in the post-Brady era, perhaps the Buccaneers would be a good candidate for a trade down here to acquire more picks. If they stay where they are, Jones would make sense as a Donovan Smith replacement.
20. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: ED NOLAN SMITH, GEORGIA
Bottom line in PFF's 2023 NFL Draft Guide: Smith is unique in so many ways, with a lot of projectable NFL traits. He'll likely be a more productive pass-rusher in the NFL than he was at Georgia.
Smith’s size will scare teams off, but getting an edge rusher who runs sub-4.4 with the 20th pick in the draft feels like too good a value to turn down. In four seasons at Georgia, Smith produced 84 total pressures from 621 pass-rushing snaps.
21. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: DI BRYAN BRESEE, CLEMSON
Bottom line in PFF's 2023 NFL Draft Guide: Bresee is a bit more of a project than you'd like at the top of the draft, but he wasn't put in much of a position to succeed in Clemson's scheme. His physical skill set is special.
Like Smith at 20th overall, Bresee feels good value here at No. 21. An impressive interior pass-rusher, he registered three sacks, four hits and 17 hurries from 203 pass-rushing snaps this past season.
22. BALTIMORE RAVENS: WR JORDAN ADDISON, USC
Bottom line in PFF's 2023 NFL Draft Guide: Addison has one of the higher floors among receivers in the draft class due to his blend of route-running chops and all-around athleticism.
Deonte Banks might be the better prospect for the Ravens here, but they just have to keep taking swings at wide receiver until they hit. Adding Addison to a trio with tight end Mark Andrews and a hopefully healthy Rashod Bateman would be a step in the right direction for their pass offense.
23. MINNESOTA VIKINGS: CB DEONTE BANKS, MARYLAND
Bottom line in PFF's 2023 NFL Draft Guide: Banks has all the physical traits of an All-Pro cornerback. He just needs to be more consistent with his technique.
Patrick Peterson played 1,176 snaps for the Vikings in the regular season and playoffs last year and is currently heading to free agency. He might ultimately return, but adding an impact athlete like Banks would be wise here.
24. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: T ANTON HARRISON, OKLAHOMA
Bottom line in PFF's 2023 NFL Draft Guide: Harrison could have really upped his draft stock with another year in a college weight room. He may have to be “redshirted” out the gate, but I'd bet money on him being a plus pass protector in time.
Harrison is coming off a big year as a pass blocker, allowing just nine total pressures from 447 pass-blocking snaps. He has produced 80.0-plus PFF pass-blocking grades in each of the past two seasons.
25. NEW YORK GIANTS: TE MICHAEL MAYER, NOTRE DAME
Bottom line in PFF's 2023 NFL Draft Guide: Mayer is one of the highest-floor players in the draft. You know you're getting a complete, productive tight end at the next level. However, can he separate enough to be a true difference-maker?
I think that they will add to the wide receiver position in free agency or via trade. I do still like adding to the passing attack here, and a 6-foot-4 tight end with a 91.6 PFF receiving grade in 2022 fits the bill nicely.
26. DALLAS COWBOYS: WR ZAY FLOWERS, BOSTON COLLEGE
Bottom line in PFF's 2023 NFL Draft Guide: You want to add dynamism to your offense? Flowers is your guy.
Adding secondary receivers to CeeDee Lamb should be a priority for the Cowboys this offseason, and Flowers would be a smart addition. Despite his size, Flowers saw 66.6% of his receiving snaps lined up on the outside in 2022.
27. BUFFALO BILLS: T DAWAND JONES, OHIO STATE
Bottom line in PFF's 2023 NFL Draft Guide: He has to be put in a certain role, but in that, he could dominate. If you have a mobile quarterback, this is the guy you want at right tackle.
Jones measured in at 6’8 and 374 pounds in Indianapolis. That’s rare size even for an offensive lineman. In his final season at Ohio State he allowed just five hurries, with no sacks or hits, from 419 pass-blocking snaps.
28. CINCINNATI BENGALS: ED MYLES MURPHY, CLEMSON
Bottom line in PFF's 2023 NFL Draft Guide: The guy we saw as a freshman was a lock top-10 pick. Where'd he go?
Edge defender is not an immediate need for the Bengals, though Trey Hendrickson has just two years left on his current deal, but Murphy is really good value here. He produced 75.0-plus PFF pass-rushing grades in each of the past two seasons.
29. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (VIA DEN): CB EMMANUEL FORBES, MISSISSIPPI STATE
Bottom line in PFF’s 2023 NFL Draft Guide: Forbes has some boom-or-bust aspects to his game but has the kind of athletic traits that can make up for misreads.
Forbes is coming off his best season in college, where he allowed just 31 receptions and registered a combined 13 interceptions and pass breakups from 430 snaps in coverage.
30. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: RB BIJAN ROBINSON, TEXAS
Bottom line in PFF's 2023 NFL Draft Guide: Robinson is about as well-rounded a back as you'll see in the draft. He's one of the highest-floor players in the class.
Would Howie Roseman draft a running back even in late Round 1 in 2023? Maybe not, but if you could pick the perfect spot for Robinson, I think it’s Philadelphia. Pairing Robinson with Jalen Hurts would create a dominant rushing threat, and teams wouldn’t be able to sell out to stop the run with Brown, Smith and Smith-Njigba at receiver.
31. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: ED FELIX ANUDIKE-UZOMAH, KANSAS STATE
Bottom line in PFF's 2023 NFL Draft Guide: Anudike-Uzomah has really easy tape to project to the next level. He's one of the higher-floor pass-rushers in the class.
Frank Clark is no longer on the roster so the Chiefs add an edge rusher in Round 1 for the second year in a row. Anudike-Uzomah had his best season at Kansas State in 2021, producing an 89.9 PFF pass-rushing grade and racking up 43 total pressures from 280 pass-rushing snaps.
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.