• A situation reminiscent of Aidan Hutchinson vs. Travon Walker: Walker was the more athletic prospect, but Hutchinson's proven productivity won out. The same is likely to be true for Latu, whose 27.0% pass-rush win rate is the best mark posted by any full-time edge rusher from the Power Five over the past decade.
• Latu ranks highly in PFF's Game Athleticism Score metric: He placed in the 97th percentile in 2022 and the 99th percentile in 2023.
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The NFL still doesn’t have a great hit rate when it comes to the NFL draft. One reason the league hasn’t cracked the code yet is that teams are typically trying to quantify different things at the same time: how good is a player right now, and how good can they be in the future?
Often, this can lead to teams chasing a theoretical upside that may never be attained, leading to overlooking better football players right now.
This dynamic is most obvious in pass rushers. Two years ago, the Jacksonville Jaguars passed up a demonstrably better player in Aidan Hutchinson to chase the upside in Travon Walker, who was literally the greatest athlete the game has ever seen at the position. By every conceivable measure, Hutchinson was the better player at the time, but Walker’s theoretical upside and potential, set by the fact that he had the greatest measurables composite of any edge rusher in history, was what captivated the Jaguars into spending the No. 1 overall pick on him.
Something similar seems to be playing out this year between the top edge rushers, at least in terms of narrative. Alabama’s Dallas Turner had outstanding workouts and is clearly an awesome athlete, and that has framed UCLA’s Laiatu Latu as the “limited” potential player by comparison.
The problem is, that wildly undervalues Latu.
Latu was seen as an average athlete at the position, partly because of the direct comparison to Turner. But Latu’s 4.64-second 40 time is in the 82nd percentile for edge rushers, and his PFF Game Athleticism Score was in the 97th percentile in 2022 and the 99th percentile in 2023. On the field, in actual game situations, Latu has been an elite athlete.
So, that brings us back to his production.
Latu has been one of the most productive edge rusher prospects since PFF began grading college football in 2014, which is important because the players at the very elite echelon of grading have translated very well to the next level.
Twelve edge rushers since 2014 have posted a PFF pass-rushing grade of 91.0 or better over a single college season, and eight ended up earning Pro Bowl nods in the NFL. Latu is one of the four who haven't. He earned pass-rushing grades of 91.0 and 94.3 over the past two seasons.
Latu’s 27.0% pass-rush win rate is the best rate of any of those edge rushers, and the best mark posted by any full-time edge rusher from the Power Five over the past decade. He notched 65 quarterback pressures last season, and the only edge rusher to post a better pass-rushing grade over a single college season was Chase Young in 2019.
By any production measure, Latu stacks up among the very best edge rushers to enter the league in recent years.
Unlike Travon Walker, Dallas Turner has been very productive in his own right, albeit a notable step behind Latu. Last season, his PFF pass-rushing grade was 88.8 and his pass-rush win rate was 19.9%. Jared Verse posted a 90.8 grade and a 23.1% win rate in 2023. But neither player can match Latu’s production.
Among the players in the elite profile that Latu occupies is Joey Bosa, and one of the criticisms leveled at Bosa as a prospect was that he may have already maxed out his potential as a player. That criticism was focused on how close to his potential ceiling Bosa already was without giving enough weight to how good he already was.
Bosa walked into the NFL as a Pro Bowl-caliber player, and even if he never got any better from his college days, he was worth a very high draft pick. Only injuries have hindered his impact as an NFL player.
Latu needs to be looked at in the same light. He may be closer to his ceiling than players like Turner and Verse, but he is also a better player right now than either. His suite of pass-rush moves is as good as it gets, and it has already shown to play on the field. Latu has more ways to win than any pass rusher to come into the league in recent years, and his in-game athleticism is as good as it gets.
NFL teams inevitably get enamored with potential, but just as important is how good a player is right now. And Latu is a star already.
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