• Will one of the top four QB prospects slide out of the top 10? We're buying this rumor, as Will Levis or Anthony Richardson could easily fall down the order.
• Is Georgia Tech's Keion White a first-rounder? White accepted an invite to Kansas City for Day 1 of the 2023 NFL Draft, sparking rumors of him being a first-round pick. We're not sold.
• How many CBs will go off the board in Round 1? We're buying the rumor of a Day 1 run on cornerbacks, especially if considering Alabama's Brian Branch as a slot player.
Estimated Reading Time: 6 mins
With the 2023 NFL Draft now less than two weeks away, smokescreen season is in full swing. Strategic leaks, draft board manipulation and all other shenanigans get cranked up to 11 before the Carolina Panthers are finally on the clock on April 27.
With so many rumors swirling, we wanted to do our best to sort through the chatter and share what we believe is true and what is just gossip.
“One of the top four quarterbacks could slide out of the top 10”
Verdict: Buying
When all is said and done, we wouldn’t be surprised if either Florida’s Anthony Richardson or Kentucky’s Will Levis goes off the board later than expected. Levis could be the true name to watch here due to Richardson’s off-the-charts athleticism.
Levis has a few things working strongly in his favor in the eyes of clubs: extensive experience in pro-style offenses, rushing ability for the occasional designed run with scrambling upside, a rocket arm and toughness playing through multiple injuries this past season.
While the injuries provide important context, Levis nonetheless ranked 101st in the FBS with 54.4% of his passes deemed accurate in 2022. In his penultimate season in 2021, he was better at 57.6%, but that still ranked just 55th. Throw on his tape and you’ll see the occasional airmail.
Related: Sam Monson's top 15 quarterbacks, including Alabama's Bryce Young at No. 1
“The wide receivers will come off the board later than most mock drafts have predicted”
Verdict: Buying
To a degree, we may have started treating top wide receiver prospects like we do top quarterback prospects. That is, with elite college talent at the position flying off the board early in the past few drafts, we’ve come to expect it every year. However, the top of this class is not held in very high regard across the league, and we wouldn’t be shocked if no wide receivers are selected through the first dozen or so picks, with perhaps only one or two in the top 20.
“Hendon Hooker will go in the first round”
Verdict: Selling
With each passing day there seems to be another credible draft analyst who expects Hooker to be a first-round pick, but we struggle to see it happening. A 25-year-old prospect coming off a torn ACL is tough to believe on its own, but the teams commonly linked to Hooker also don’t make a ton of sense.
The Minnesota Vikings undoubtedly need a quarterback of the future with Kirk Cousins entering the final year of his contract, but they don’t pick until No. 86 overall after No. 23 in the first round, which would mean they potentially add zero 2023 contributors with a Hooker selection.
Another popular narrative is that a team may trade up into the bottom of the first round for Hooker. While this is entirely feasible, besides the Philadelphia Eagles at No. 30 overall, the teams holding the final six selections have not historically been interested in trading down. All trends can be broken, but they are worth noting in this context nonetheless.
Hooker’s 43.7 passing grade when pressured ranked 61st among FBS quarterbacks in 2022, and while the stat can be unstable, he also earned a 48.6 mark in 2021, with his 65 sacks taken over the last two seasons tied for the sixth most in the FBS. Hooker’s 64 sacks taken on 196 pressured dropbacks over the span equates to a 33% sack rate when pressured, the second-worst mark in the country over the past two seasons.
“There will be a major run on cornerbacks in the first round”
Verdict: Buying
As of today, we’d expect a minimum of five cornerbacks to be selected in the first round, with a guess on the order as follows: Oregon’s Christian Gonzalez, Illinois’ Devon Witherspoon, Penn State’s Joey Porter Jr. and a toss-up between Mississippi State’s Emmanuel Forbes and Maryland’s Deonte Banks.
Alabama’s Brian Branch is viewed as a slot defender who may ultimately become classified as a safety at the next level, but he’s currently listed as a cornerback on NFL.com, which is notable for the many sportsbooks that determine the outcome of position-based draft prop bets based on that information.
A few more players who could sneak into the first round are South Carolina’s Cam Smith, Michigan’s D.J. Turner and Miami’s Tyrique Stevenson, though this isn’t a prediction that will happen.
“Georgia Tech edge defender Keion White will go in the first round”
Verdict: Selling
The NFL released a list of 17 players who accepted invitations to Kansas City for the first night of the draft, and White was a notable inclusion among the top talents. Shortly after the list was released, folks ran rampant with the presumption that White must be a first-round pick if he got an invite to sit in the green room.
In 2022, three players who went on to be third-round selections were in the draft green room, as was Chicago Bears cornerback Kyler Gordon, who eventually came off the board at No. 39 overall in the second round. We expect White to ultimately be selected in Gordon’s range, if not a bit later.
White is described by evaluators as having intriguing traits and athletic tools at his disposal, with a raw skill set that could improve with NFL coaching. This is always a good way for a player to go earlier than his college production may indicate, but it's less meaningful for a 24-year-old with effectively one season at edge defender under his belt. On true pass sets in 2022, White’s 17.6% pressure rate ranked 72nd among FBS edge defenders with at least 50 such snaps. There could certainly be some untapped potential, but how much for one of the oldest players in the class?
“Offensive tackles may not come off the board as early as usual”
Verdict: Buying
There are a handful of intriguing prospects at offensive tackle, but all of the big names carry enough concerns that many around the league do not expect them to go as early as the position often warrants. Blue-chip tackle prospects don’t make it out of the top 10 or 15 often, but this year they could slide as defensive linemen and cornerbacks come off early.
Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski is viewed as a guard by many teams on account of his shorter arms, yet he’s still considered most likely to be the first offensive lineman taken around the league. It’s very possible he’s the only offensive lineman to go in the top 10.
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.