• The Washington Commanders must pick a quarterback: Whether they prefer Caleb Williams, Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels, the team would be making a huge mistake by leaving this draft without one of those quarterbacks.
• The Chicago Bears can't afford to trade too far down: Trading any lower than Pick 2 would be a huge mistake, given their need to find a new franchise quarterback.
• Draft and trade for yourself: Try PFF's Mock Draft Simulator — trade picks and players and mock for your favorite NFL team.
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No matter how successful the previous season, every NFL team has areas to improve. Whether their plans pan out comes down to a combination of execution and luck.
PFF’s Dalton Wasserman recently examined the best-case scenario for all 32 NFL teams. This week, we are turning the tables and exploring the potential worst-case scenarios.
From teams trading out of position to draft a franchise-changing quarterback to not addressing key needs, here’s a look at what would constitute a bad draft by every team, with the caveat that free agency will flip some of these.
JUMP TO A TEAM:
ARZ | ATL | BLT | BUF | CAR | CIN | CHI | CLE | DEN | DAL | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAX | KC | LVR | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF | SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
Arizona Cardinals
Worst-case scenario: Passing on a wide receiver with the fourth overall selection
The Cardinals are sticking with Kyler Murray at quarterback, and they are in the perfect position to draft a top target for him.
Quarterbacks will come off the board with the first two picks — and very probably the first three — which means the Cardinals likely get one of Marvin Harrison Jr. or Malik Nabers, who led the draft class in yards per route run in 2023.
Atlanta Falcons
Worst-case scenario: Failing to find a new starting quarterback
Whether through free agency, trade or the draft, the Atlanta Falcons need a fresh face at quarterback. And even if they add a veteran such as Kirk Cousins, they should probably pair that player with a longer-term option at the position, too, even if it’s a little later in the draft.
They could trade back into the first round from their pick in Round 2 for someone like Michael Penix Jr., J.J. McCarthy or Bo Nix, or they could draft a prospect like Spencer Rattler (86.1 PFF grade back in 2021) in the second or third round.
Related: Click here for PFF's 2024 NFL Draft quarterback rankings
Baltimore Ravens
Worst-case scenario: Not drafting any wide receivers or offensive linemen with any of their top-100 picks
The Ravens could need two new starters on the offensive line this offseason, and there is still work to be done to develop their wide receiver room. Luckily for them, this draft is deep at both positions.
First-round wide receiver options include Ladd McConkey (who earned a career-high 82.6 PFF grade in 2023) or Keon Coleman (70.3). They could then opt for a more developmental tackle in BYU’s Kingsley Suamataia or Yale’s Kiran Amegadjie in the second round.
Buffalo Bills
Worst-case scenario: Leaving the first three rounds of the draft without a wide receiver
Getting Josh Allen some more weapons at wide receiver is a must for the Bills this offseason — not just for 2024 but for the next few years.
Speedster Troy Franklin earned an 84.9 PFF grade last season and could slide to Pick 28. Even if he doesn't, a replacement for Gabe Davis should be available late in that first round, whether it's combine record-setter Xavier Worthy or South Carolina’s Xavier Legette.
Carolina Panthers
Worst-case scenario: Not drafting a wide receiver with the 33rd overall selection
The Panthers don’t have a first-round draft pick in 2024, thanks to the trade-up for quarterback Bryce Young a year ago. While there will be concerns about Young, given that he earned just a 56.0 PFF grade as a rookie, the priority for 2024 has to be finding him a receiver who can develop with him.
Chicago Bears
Worst-case scenario: Trading down any lower than No. 2 overall
There seemed to be a quiet buzz at the NFL scouting combine about the possibility of the Bears trading down from the No. 1 overall pick. That would make sense if they preferred Drake Maye over Caleb Williams and knew the Washington Commanders would be willing to give up an extra pick to move up. However, trading any lower than Pick 2 would be a huge mistake, given their need to find a new franchise quarterback.
Cincinnati Bengals
Worst-case scenario: Not drafting offensive linemen in the top four rounds
Starting right tackle Jonah Williams is headed for free agency, and starting center Ted Karras has just one year left on his deal. If the Bengals don’t draft a lineman in Round 1, Notre Dame’s Blake Fisher could be an option on Day 2.
Fisher earned PFF grades above 70.0 in each of the past two seasons and is a potential starter at right tackle.
Cleveland Browns
Worst-case scenario: Failing to add good run defenders
The Browns are fortunate that the thing they need to improve on defensively is something that they can find later in the draft. Texas’ T’Vondre Sweat is the big-name run-stuffer to watch on Day 2, but if they wait until Day 3, someone like FAU's Evan Anderson could fit the bill.
Dallas Cowboys
Worst-case scenario: Not drafting a left tackle or guard in Round 1 or 2
We know Tyron Smith won’t be back in Dallas in 2024, so left tackle is now a huge need. I sent Washington’s Troy Fautanu to the Cowboys in my most recent mock draft, even though he could be a better fit at left guard. That would push Tyler Smith back to tackle, where he earned a 73.3 PFF grade as a rookie.
Related: Click here for PFF's post-combine 2024 NFL mock draft
Denver Broncos
Worst-case scenario: Failing to find a solution at quarterback
The Broncos will cut Russell Wilson when the new league year begins, so we now officially know that the team is looking for a new starting quarterback.
The Broncos are another potential fit for a player like Kirk Cousins, who they could look to pair with a young quarterback, but they could also just draft someone with the 12th overall pick.
J.J. McCarthy is the fourth quarterback on PFF’s big board. If they want him under center for 2024, the only scenario they would have to worry about would be the Minnesota Vikings potentially drafting the former Michigan star right before them.
Related: Click here for PFF's 2024 NFL Draft quarterback rankings
Detroit Lions
Worst-case scenario: Not adding enough defensive talent
The Lions went to the NFC championship game in 2023 despite having just four defensive players who played 200 or more snaps and earned a PFF grade of 70.0 or better.
With four picks in the top 100, the Lions have the opportunity to leave this draft with an influx of new talent on the defensive side of the ball. Doing anything else would be a mistake.
Green Bay Packers
Worst-case scenario: Not drafting defense early
Similar to the Lions, the Packers need impact players on defense. They might opt to use their first-round pick on the offensive line, but even if they do, they have four picks between Nos. 41 and 91, so they have plenty of opportunity to bolster the defensive side of the ball. Those early second-round picks could be prime position to land one of the top safeties in the draft.
Houston Texans
Worst-case scenario: Not building around C.J. Stroud
The Texans enjoyed a successful draft last year, notably finding a franchise quarterback in C.J. Stroud, who finished 2023 with an 83.1 PFF grade that ranked 13th at the position.
Now, they need to build around him. While they have plenty of needs on defense, they mustn't ignore the need for additional playmakers. Tight end Dalton Schultz, who saw the second-most targets on the team last year (93), has been re-signed, but they would still benefit from adding some competition for targets behind him, Nico Collins and Tank Dell.
Indianapolis Colts
Worst-case scenario: Not drafting a cornerback, wide receiver or Brock Bowers in Round 1
The Colts franchise tagged Michael Pittman Jr., so it’s likely the team's WR1 will be in Indianapolis in 2023. Assuming they can lock Pittman up long-term, Georgia tight end Brock Bowers, who led the position in yards per route run in 2023, would be the dream pick.
That being said, adding another wide receiver in the top 100 would give them a potential security blanket for the future should they not get a deal done with Pittman.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Worst-case scenario: Not drafting an offensive lineman in the top 100
Outside of tackle Cam Robinson and guard Brandon Scherff, no Jaguars offensive lineman earned a PFF pass-blocking grade above 63.0 last year.
That was evident when Robinson missed time throughout the year and Trevor Lawrence found himself under a lot of pressure.
Kansas City Chiefs
Worst-case scenario: Not drafting a wide receiver in Round 1 or 2
Yes, the Kansas City Chiefs won the Super Bowl. And yes, rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice did take some serious strides forward late in the year. That being said, it’s still imperative for the Chiefs to invest in the wide receiver position in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Georgia’s Ladd McConkey will be a popular mock draft pick for the Chiefs, as he is coming off a season in which he averaged 3.26 yards per route run.
Las Vegas Raiders
Worst-case scenario: Ending the draft without a potential franchise quarterback
The Raiders are in a tough spot in this draft — they have a need at the quarterback position but are sitting behind multiple teams that will likely draft one.
The two teams directly in front of the Raiders at No. 13 overall — the Vikings at No. 11 and the Broncos at No. 12 — are in the market for a new quarterback. That might mean that Las Vegas instead waits until Round 2 or Round 3 for a player like Spencer Rattler, but the team will also want to take another shot at the position this draft.
Related: Click here for PFF's 2024 NFL Draft quarterback rankings
Los Angeles Chargers
Worst-case scenario: Not drafting a wide receiver, an offensive lineman or Brock Bowers with the fifth overall pick
The theme of this draft should be surrounding quarterback Justin Herbert with what he needs. Picking fifth overall puts them in prime position to add one of the top wide receivers in the draft or Georgia’s Brock Bowers at tight end or an offensive tackle to solidify that offensive line.
Doing anything else, barring a trade down that lands them a haul, would be a mistake.
Los Angeles Rams
Worst-case scenario: Leaving the draft without a quarterback to develop
Matthew Stafford earned a career-high 88.2 PFF grade in 2023, but he is now 36 years old, and it’s unlikely he will play much longer. That means that the Rams need to find a long-term replacement.
In my most recent mock draft, I sent Bo Nix to the Rams in the first round, pairing a quarterback who had the lowest turnover-worthy play rate among the class' quarterbacks with a situation that would allow him to sit and learn behind a veteran.
Related: Click here for PFF's post-combine 2024 NFL mock draft
Miami Dolphins
Worst-case scenario: Not drafting offensive line help
Miami's entire starting interior offensive line is scheduled to hit free agency next week. Simply put, they need to come out of this draft with help along the offensive line.
That might start as early as Round 1, where their spot at No. 21 overall puts them in prime position for one of the top centers or guards in the draft.
Minnesota Vikings
Worst-case scenario: Leaving the draft without a quarterback, even if Kirk Cousins stays in Minnesota
The Vikings are at a crossroads at the quarterback position. Kirk Cousins, who had earned the sixth-highest PFF grade at the position when his season ended with an Achilles injury in Week 8, looks set to at least test free agency.
Even if they bring him back, they will still want to find a long-term solution, whether that comes from selecting a passer in Round 1 or more of a developmental prospect on Day 2.
New England Patriots
Worst-case scenario: Not drafting a quarterback or Marvin Harrison Jr. with the third overall pick
The Patriots need a solution at quarterback, but I don’t think that means it has to be with the third overall pick. If they instead opted to take Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr. and pair him with a veteran quarterback and a developmental Day 2 player, I can see the vision there. Not coming away with either — unless they land a massive haul in trading down — doesn’t feel wise.
New Orleans Saints
Worst-case scenario: Not improving enough in the trenches
Seven Saints offensive linemen played 200-plus snaps and earned a PFF grade below 60.0 last season. Of the team's three players on the defensive interior who played more than 500 snaps, Khalen Saunders was the highest graded at 61.6.
They need to get better in the trenches this offseason, and thankfully, this is a good draft to be looking to find offensive linemen in the second and third rounds.
New York Giants
Worst-case scenario: Leaving the draft without more playmakers on offense
The Giants lacked playmakers in 2023, and Saquon Barkley is likely heading out the door in free agency. They can find running back help on Day 2 or Day 3, but adding more playmakers on offense is a must in this draft class.
At No. 6 overall, they should have a shot at Washington wide receiver Rome Odunze, who earned an 89.5 PFF receiving grade versus man coverage in 2023.
Related: Click here for PFF's post-combine 2024 NFL mock draft
New York Jets
Worst-case scenario: Drafting anything other than an offensive lineman or pass-catcher in Round 1
It’s all about the short term for the Jets, with quarterback Aaron Rodgers now 40 years old and coming off a season-ending Achilles injury. That means the time is now if the Jets are going to make a run at the Super Bowl.
The team needs a new starting left tackle, with Mekhi Becton coming off the lowest-graded season of his career at 52.3, but leaving Round 1 without either a new receiver or offensive tackle would be a mistake.
Philadelphia Eagles
Worst-case scenario: Not drafting a cornerback in the top 100
James Bradberry struggled last year, and Darius Slay is now 33. And while they did a good job bringing in Kelee Ringo to develop last year, they still need to add at the cornerback position in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Thankfully, this is a deep cornerback class. Seventeen of the top 120 players on the PFF big board are cornerbacks, and all of them earned a PFF grade above 70.0 this past season.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Worst-case scenario: Leaving the draft with no new options at quarterback
The noise out of Pittsburgh seems to be that they are happy with Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph, who earned PFF passing grades of 68.8 and 64.8, respectively, at quarterback in 2024.
It’s hard to believe that they won't add to the position before the end of the draft, though, whether that means taking a player to develop in the top 100, adding a free agent or trading for a player like Justin Fields.
San Francisco 49ers
Worst-case scenario: Not drafting an offensive lineman in the top 100
Outside of Trent Williams, who earned an 84.3 pass-blocking grade, none of the 49ers offensive linemen stood out in pass protection last season.
Thankfully, this is the right draft to find future starters in the top 100, especially at the back end of the first round.
Seattle Seahawks
Worst-case scenario: Not drafting players who can thrive in Mike Macdonald’s defense
Mike Macdonald had the Ravens defense creating havoc throughout the 2023 NFL season, and he will want to add playmakers to that side of the ball now that he is the head coach of the Seahawks.
He had standouts at linebacker in Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen in Baltimore. And with former starters Bobby Wagner and Jordyn Brooks headed for free agency, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the Seahawks draft one in the opening three rounds.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Worst-case scenario: Not improving the interior offensive line
Center Ryan Jensen has officially retired. His replacement, Robert Hainsey, struggled last season, earning a 50.2 PFF grade. Left guard Aaron Stinnie is scheduled to be a free agent, though he also struggled last year, earning a 56.5 PFF grade.
Duke’s Graham Barton will be a popular mock draft selection for them, with the college tackle expected to move back to his freshman position of center.
Tennessee Titans
Worst-case scenario: Leaving this draft without multiple new offensive linemen
The Titans finished the year with PFF's lowest-ranked offensive line, and the unit was bad enough that the team should be looking to bring in multiple potential replacements through the draft.
The good news is that they now have Bill Callahan as their offensive line coach, which would be a dream come true for someone like Joe Alt (whose 90.7 PFF grade led all tackles in this draft class) should he be the pick at No. 7 overall.
Washington Commanders
Worst-case scenario: Not drafting a quarterback
The Commanders need a potential franchise quarterback. The Commanders are in a position to draft a potential franchise quarterback.
Whether they prefer Caleb Williams, Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels, the team would be making a huge mistake by leaving this draft without one of those quarterbacks.
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