• Poor testing and a subpar 2023 season have Kalen King well out of the first-round conversation: His PFF coverage grade plummeted from 90.6 in 2022 to 55.7 in 2023.
• Safety Kamren Kinchens has fallen down draft boards: Once considered the top safety in the class, Kinchens posted an elite 90.0 PFF overall grade in 2022 but was unable to replicate that play in 2023.
• PFF’s 2024 NFL Draft Guide is now available: Our latest draft guide is loaded with more than 600 pages of PFF-exclusive advanced stats, grades and analysis on some of the top 2024 draft prospects.
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An unfortunate part of the NFL draft process is when prospects come into the college season with high expectations but fail to reach those lofty heights and damage their stock.
Sometimes these down seasons don’t carry too much weight, as circumstances out of the player's control either weren’t in their favor or they possess enough tools that a poor final season isn’t a death knell for their draft stock. Others tumble down draft boards to the point where their NFL future is called into question.
We’re going to look at eight 2024 NFL Draft prospects who underperformed in 2023 and how their stocks have been affected. The order of players is based on their current ranking on the PFF big board.
T Tyler Guyton, Oklahoma (Big Board Rank: 29)
Despite logging more than 1,000 snaps over the past two seasons at Oklahoma, Guyton is still considered a raw offensive tackle prospect largely because of his lack of refined technique. This showed up on game tape and in his PFF grades, as he recorded only two game grades over 70.0 in his two seasons as a primary starter.
That being said, Guyton's athleticism while standing at 6-foot-7 and 327 pounds is a big reason why he’s still considered a borderline first-round pick. He may need to sit for a year in the NFL, but he has the tools to develop into a future Pro Bowler.
WR Devontez Walker, North Carolina (Big Board Rank: 72)
Tez Walker was one of the biggest names to hit the transfer portal ahead of the 2023 season. While at Kent State, Walker put himself on the map by catching seven passes for 106 yards and a score against vaunted Georgia, making his impending arrival at North Carolina and his pairing with quarterback Drake Maye all the more exciting.
However, an eligibility issue delayed his arrival until Week 6 against Syracuse, and that may have affected his rhythm, as his production was very inconsistent. Walker did have some dominant games, such as in Week 7 against Miami, when he caught six passes for 132 yards and three scores, and against Virginia in Week 8, when he brought in 11 catches for 146 yards and a score against Virginia. He cooled off after those games, tallying more than four catches in a game just once the rest of the season.
Walker endured some struggles with drops at the Senior Bowl but helped himself at the NFL scouting combine by running a 4.36 in the 40-yard dash. He may not be looking like a first-round pick as things stand, but he’s very entrenched in the Day 2 conversation as a potential speed piece who can take the top off a defense.
S Kamren Kinchens, Miami (FL) (Big Board Rank: 84)
Kinchens was one of the best safeties in college football in 2022, putting up an elite 90.0 PFF overall grade and a 90.7 coverage grade after making six interceptions — three of which came in one game against Georgia Tech.
Heading into 2023, Kinchens was looking like the top safety in the draft and a projected first-round pick. While he didn’t play poorly, his 67.8 PFF overall grade and 65.1 coverage grade were a far cry from the heights he reached in 2022. Kinchens didn’t fare much better at the NFL scouting combine, as his 4.65 40-yard dash was tied with fellow Miami safety James Williams for the slowest mark at the position (though Williams is about 25 pounds heavier).
While Kinchens is still likely to be one of the first safeties off the board, it is unlikely we hear his name called on night one.
LB Tommy Eichenberg, Ohio State (Big Board Rank: 107)
Eichenberg was an anchor up the middle of the Ohio State defense for much of the past three seasons, but he shined particularly in 2022. He showcased no weaknesses that year, earning an elite 90.1 run-defense grade, an 81.0 tackling grade, a 73.0 pass-rush grade and a 75.9 coverage grade to form an 86.8 PFF overall grade.
Eichenberg elected to return to school for a fifth season in 2023, but his performance dropped across the board, most notably in coverage, where his grade fell from 75.9 to 52.7. His pass-rush productivity also took a huge hit, as his pressure total dropped by more than half, from 23 to 11, despite playing only 15 fewer pass-rush snaps from the year before. His PFF overall grade also dropped from 86.8 to 61.5, one of the steepest fall-offs in this draft class.
Eichenberg did miss two games in 2023 due to a dislocated elbow, an injury he managed to play through against Michigan, so that affected his counting totals, but one must wonder how much better his draft stock would have been had he declared for the draft after his stellar 2022 campaign.
DI Leonard Taylor III, Miami (FL) (Big Board Rank: 118)
Taylor is another player who garnered some preseason first-round hype but delivered a mixed bag in 2023. He had three games with a PFF grade over 87.0 but another three where he dipped below 60.0. Taylor’s strength is as a pass rusher, as he registered an 82.1 grade with 21 pressures while lining up primarily on the interior.
Against Bethune-Cookman, he recorded five pressures and two quarterback hits on only 11 pass-rush snaps. However, his tackling and run defense left a lot to be desired, as he earned a 64.4 run-defense grade and a poor 33.6 tackling grade, missing 27.8% of his tackle attempts.
Taylor still has a wide range of draft outcomes, with the potential to go anywhere from the second round to the middle of Day 3.
CB Kalen King, Penn State (Big Board Rank: 144)
Perhaps no player in this year’s draft class has seen their stock tumble more than Kalen King.
After a dominant sophomore season in which he put up an elite 90.6 coverage grade opposite Joey Porter Jr, King was projected to be among the top cornerbacks in the country ahead of 2023. However, with Porter off to the NFL, King had to take on opposing teams’ top receivers, and as a result, his coverage grade plummeted from 90.6 to 55.7.
The postseason process hasn’t been any kinder to King, as he got picked apart at the Senior Bowl and tested poorly at the NFL scouting combine. Once considered a potential top-10 selection, King currently projects as a day-three pick.
IOL Javion Cohen, Miami (FL) (Big Board Rank: 205)
The third Miami player to appear on this list (we swear, Hurricanes fans, we’re not doing this on purpose), Cohen was considered one of the top guard prospects heading into the season with the potential to find his way into first-round consideration with a big year.
A former two-year starter at Alabama, Cohen transferred to Miami ahead of the 2023 season looking to be a key cog in the Hurricanes’ offensive line. That didn’t quite happen, as Cohen put up just a 59.4 PFF grade, never going higher than 67.0 in any game. He did earn four 80.0-plus pass-blocking game grades, but he struggled mightily as a run blocker, grading out below 60.0 in eight of 12 outings.
QB Sam Hartman, Notre Dame (Big Board Rank: 275)
Hartman left Wake Forest as one of the most statistically prolific passers in ACC history to join a Notre Dame squad whose style of offense better translated to the NFL. But his play with the Fighting Irish was inconsistent. He put up the highest turnover-worthy play rate of his career (4.2%), despite also having the highest big-time throw rate of his career (7.5%). No more was this apparent than in a two-game stretch against Clemson (26.6 passing grade with zero big-time throws and three turnover-worthy plays) and Wake Forest teammates (92.3 passing grade with a season-high four big-time throws and zero turnover-worthy plays).
After an inconsistent showing in a more pro-style offense and a lack of eye-popping physical traits, unrelated to his Disney Prince looks, Hartman isn’t a sure thing to be drafted despite his career production.
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