The 2024 NFL Draft is fast approaching. The PFF big board is live, mock draft season is in full swing and the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine has wrapped up.
The 2024 safety class showcases a broad range of skill sets. Leading the pack is Minnesota’s Tyler Nubin, who could thrive in two-high shells. There are also players like Georgia’s Javon Bullard, who project better as nickel defenders.
Let's look at Minnesota’s Tyler Nubin, who was named to the second-team All-Big Ten Team in 2022 and the first-team All-Big Ten Team in 2023.
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SCOUTING SUMMARY
After committing to Minnesota, Nubin waited his turn behind Antoine Winfield Jr. before becoming a full-time starter in 2021. Since then, he's become Minnesota‘s all-time leader in interceptions (13).
His athleticism — an explosive first step, controlled and quick footwork and fluid hips — provides him with good range in coverage from a free safety role. He pairs that with good eyes and anticipation for where passes and ball carriers are going.
In run defense, he is consistently willing to be physical but tends to lead with the crown of his helmet. He also can be a bit overaggressive in pursuit angles.
WINS ABOVE AVERAGE
WAA represents the number of wins a player is worth over an average college football player and is a metric evaluators can utilize to assess performance.
It combines how well a player performed in each facet of play (using PFF grades) and how valuable each facet is to winning football games. The result is a first-of-its-kind metric that allows for cross-positional valuation and predicts future value at the player and team levels.
HOW NUBIN RANKS IN THE STABLE METRICS
Coverage grade is not a stable measure by itself, but it becomes more stable when it is used to evaluate players who will go on to play in similar situations. For example, it is better to project a safety to a safety role than it is to project a safety to a slot cornerback role.
Therefore, it’s informative to isolate performances in specific situations, such as snaps played at free safety or snaps played in the box.
Forced incompletion rate is relatively stable from season to season, making it an important number when projecting future performance. PFF run-defense grade is also very stable from year to year, while run-stop percentage is a good measure of playmaking in the run game.
Nubin made incredible strides during his final season in college. He ended the 2023 season with a 90.0 overall grade and a 90.1 coverage grade, both top marks among FBS safeties.
The Minnesota product put up a 20% forced incompletion rate and an 89.2 grade on his snaps at free safety.
He still has a ways to go, but his coverage ability should give him a solid floor for a team that plays him to his strengths.
BOTTOM LINE FROM PFF's 2024 NFL DRAFT GUIDE
Nubin possesses the athleticism, football IQ and run-defense potential to be a versatile and impactful safety in any scheme. He would likely make the most plays in a system that consistently uses two-deep coverages, allowing him to play free, robber and box-safety roles.
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