• Quarterbacks will always have high bust potential: Generational prospect or not, Caleb Williams has high expectations to live up to. And his play under pressure could be his demise.
• Marvin Harrison Jr. is on track for NFL stardom: Take away the name, and he would still be the top wideout in this draft class because of his size, athleticism, nuanced route running and all-around ability.
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1. QB Caleb Williams, USC
Bust Potential: High
“Generational prospect.” “Can’t-miss quarterback.” “Best quarterback since Luck.” The adulation for the assumed No. 1 overall pick is never-ending. It’s almost impossible to find a mock draft or big board that doesn’t have Williams as the best or second-best (after Marvin Harrison Jr., another generational prospect) player in this draft.
So, what's the problem?
His performance under pressure in 2023 should be a big red flag for his NFL prospects. Williams took a sack on 21.9% of his pressured dropbacks, the third-worst rate of any draft-eligible quarterback this past season. Of his 33 sacks in 2023, Williams was responsible for 15 of them — the most of any quarterback in college football since 2021, when Sam Howell owned 17 sacks. Howell went on to be sacked 65 times in 2023 for the Washington Commanders, the fourth most in NFL history.
For comparison, Patrick Mahomes took a sack on just 10.2% of his dropbacks in his final season with Texas Tech. In 2023, Mahomes was sacked on 10.6% of his dropbacks, the second-lowest rate in the NFL. Mahomes was elite at avoiding sacks in college, and that trait hasn’t left him in the NFL.
Williams also struggled to throw the ball when under pressure, earning a 38.9 passing grade and making the most turnover-worthy passes (16). Of the consensus top seven quarterbacks in this class, he ranks worst in grade, turnover-worthy throw rate and expected points added per pass and second worst in success rate on pressured plays. And much of the pressure he was under could have been avoided, as 30% of pressured dropbacks were due to Williams' poor pocket awareness, mechanics or misreads of the defense.
Is Williams talented? No doubt about it. But he has red flags that Mahomes didn’t have coming out. And just remember, I nailed it on Mahomes.
2. QB Jayden Daniels, LSU
Bust Potential: Medium-High
Daniels has some of the same flaws in his game as Williams, in that he takes too many sacks when under pressure. Daniels took a sack on 20.2% of his pressured dropbacks in 2023. If he wasn’t taking a sack, he was scrambling 31.7% of the time. A combined 51.9% of the time under pressure, Daniels was not throwing the ball. That is an obscenely high rate and entirely unsustainable at the NFL level. These aren't Malik Willis levels of bad (56.9%), but they are Sam Howell levels of bad (51.3%).
Daniels has talent, shredded SEC defenses in 2023, protected the ball and was relatively successful when he did decide to throw it while under pressure. He ranked third in passing grade, second in turnover-worthy play rate, second in expected points added per play, second in success rate and first in big-time throw rate on pressured dropbacks.
While Daniels flashed high-level play en route to winning the Heisman Trophy in 2023, his tendency to end pressured plays with the ball in his own hands more often than not is not a recipe for success in the NFL.
3. QB Drake Maye, North Carolina
Bust Potential: High
I must really hate this quarterback class. Three signal-callers, three with high bust potential. Just remember the 2021 class. Of the five quarterbacks who were selected in the top 15 picks, four of them are on different teams. And the No. 1 overall pick, Trevor Lawrence, is not exactly living up to his billing just yet. There is no such thing as a safe quarterback prospect.
Maye’s flaws are similar to the previous two. He took a sack 18.8% of the time when under pressure in 2023. That's a better rate than Daniels and Williams, and his sack plus scramble rate was 39.6% — much better than Daniels but not as good as Williams (32.5%). His grade under pressure is respectable, at 61.3 (fourth in class), but his expected points added per play and success rate rank second worst among the presumed top six quarterbacks in the class.
Maye is a plus athlete with a big-arm mentality like Josh Allen. He grades well in all of the stable metrics except his high sack rate. Allen was the best in the NFL in 2023 at avoiding sacks and was at 15% in his best college season. The issue lies in Maye's ability to avoid sacks and create a positive pass play. It will only become more of a challenge at the next level.
4. WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State
Bust Potential: Low
There isn’t a single thing that Harrison can’t do at wide receiver. Take away the name, and he would still be the top wideout in this draft class because of his size, athleticism, nuanced route running and all-around ability.
If there are any potential red flags in Harrison's game, it's that his after-the-catch ability needs work. Of the top 21 wideouts on the PFF big board, he ranks 15th in yards after the catch per reception and 14th in missed tackles forced over the past two seasons. Other than that, Harrison ranks first in yards per route run, PFF grade and several other metrics. He’s a near-flawless prospect at the position.
5. WR Malik Nabers, LSU
Bust Potential: Medium-Low
Nabers broke out in a monster way in 2023, leading all NCAA receivers in grade as he shredded SEC defenses. He has elite-level athleticism and backed that up with an incredible showing at his pro day, running 4.38 in the 40-yard dash and jumping out of the building with a 42-inch vertical.
If there is a concern in Nabers' game, it’s that, despite grading out at an elite level against zone coverage and man coverage, he ranked in the middle of the draft class in separation percentage against single coverage. When Nabers lined up in the slot, he was given free access to run by underneath zone defenders and put safeties on an island to try to match up with him athletically, a near-impossible task for the average college safety. He generated 4.14 yards per route run and 12 touchdowns on 241 receiving snaps from the slot.
When Nabers was positioned out wide, it was a different story. His numbers fell to 2.75 yards per route run and two touchdowns on 207 receiving snaps. He became much less efficient and explosive when dealing with the superior coverage player out wide, and that will be a concern at the next level. Can he develop play-level strength to fight through press coverage? He has the top-end athleticism and ability to succeed in the NFL, but if he doesn’t, there are small warning signs in his game to indicate why.
6. WR Rome Odunze, Washington
Bust Potential: Medium-Low
In a Washington offense with a ton of NFL talent, Odunze was arguably the best of the bunch. He trailed just Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers in receiving grade over the past two years and, just like Nabers, shredded zone defenses. He topped all receivers in explosive receptions (74) and was able to win at all levels of the field.
The concern for Odunze is similar to Nabers in that he struggled to generate separation against single coverage. While Nabers struggles with play-level strength, Odunze needs work on his hands to better shed defenders in press coverage.
Again, though, while Odunze has minor flaws in his game, it’s hard to not envision him being a successful wideout at the next level.
7. T Joe Alt, Notre Dame
Bust Potential: Low
I never like to consider a prospect to be a safe bet for success in the NFL, as any player can flop. But Alt comes really close to that “safe” level. He graded out at an elite level for two straight seasons while giving up just one sack and four hits in pass protection.
Alt has ideal size and length, has zero weaknesses in his grading profile and put on a show at the NFL scouting combine, save for a middling 28-inch vertical jump. So, where are the concerns?
Because of his massive size, Alt can struggle with pad level and leverage to anchor against power rushers. If he can develop the ability to sink his hips better in pass protection against bull rushes, he’ll become nearly impossible to beat. Alt will instantly make any NFL offensive line better.
8. TE Brock Bowers, Georgia
Bust Potential: Medium-Low
There isn’t much to dislike about Bowers' game. He’s an elite pass catcher and a versatile piece to move around the formation. He knows how to use his athleticism to set up and beat single coverage from linebackers and safeties. His run blocking is more than adequate.
If Bowers has a weakness in his game, it’s his natural feel in zone coverages to find the soft spot. He’s good at it, but there is room for improvement. While adequate in run blocking, he also needs to develop more play strength to hold up in the NFL, as he is on the smaller end for a tight end. All that said, his ability as a receiving threat is top-notch and he should find success in the NFL.
9. Edge Dallas Turner, Alabama
Bust Potential: Medium
Turner is another Alabama edge rusher projected to be the top defensive player off the board after Will Anderson Jr. was selected No. 3 overall in 2023. Turner, while his 81.6 overall grade is good, doesn’t scream “elite prospect.”
Turner improved in each year of his college career and did finish 2023 with an 89.3 pass-rushing grade after recording 59 quarterback pressures and a 19.9% pass-rush win rate. He can likely develop into a solid pass rusher at the next level, but his run defense — where he earned a middling 69.8 grade in 2023 after sporting an average tackle depth of 5.47 yards — is concerning. His 2022 grade in that facet was 71.4 — better, but only slightly.
10. T Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Penn State
Bust Potential: High
He has 8.5-inch hands, the smallest in NFL history at the position. How can anyone succeed with that?
All kidding aside, Fashanu is arguably the best pass protector in the class, as his feet, balance, and athleticism make him look like a natural at offensive tackle. His initial strike with his hands is good and he anchors well against power rushers.
The concern with Fashanu is his run blocking. He graded below 70.0 on both zone and gap runs in 2023, struggling with leverage and aggressiveness to finish defenders. PFF run-blocking grades on gap and zone rushes are stable metrics when projecting to the NFL level, so it’s tough to see how Fashanu won’t struggle against significantly better competition.
Bonus: QB J.J. McCarthy, Michigan
Bust Potential: Medium
Whoa, hold on now! The fourth quarterback on the board has the lowest bust potential of the bunch? How can this be?
In a class dominated by the top three quarterbacks and the superstardom of the wide receivers, McCarthy is considered by most to be an afterthought. He was easily the most successful quarterback in this class, with a 27-1 record as a starter and winning the national championship in 2023. These things do matter at the position, especially at Michigan, where he took the monkey off Jim Harbaugh’s back to break the losing streak to the Buckeyes.
His arm talent is top-notch and arguably trails only Caleb Williams in pure natural ability. He’s accurate to all levels of the field and showed an excellent ability to play within the structure of an offense. His mechanics and footwork are already the best of the top four signal-callers, and when you are successful at the position, it comes down to making the right decision quickly.
If I hold McCarthy to the same standard as the previous three quarterbacks, performance under pressure and sack avoidance, he was the best of the group in 2023. His 72.9 grade was the No. 1 mark of the top four, and he ranked second in expected points added per play and success rate. He took a sack 16.8% of the time when under pressure, the lowest rate of the top four, and his sack-plus-scramble rate was just 27.4%, again the lowest. Being able to handle pressure and end pressured plays with a throw is necessary at the NFL level, and McCarthy was the best of the bunch in 2023.
McCarthy is still a quarterback, though, so the transition to the next level could bring out flaws that don’t show up in college. He was protected by scheme and a national championship-caliber team in back-to-back years. The volume of work isn’t there to make definitive statements about McCarthy, but what he has shown is arguably the highest floor of the top four quarterbacks, providing confidence that he can operate an NFL offense and win games.
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