• Patriots won't take a quarterback at No. 3: New England's lack of needle-moving pass catchers could cause the team to draft Marvin Harrison Jr. instead.
• Cowboys will draft the first running back: Few teams have a true need at running back, but Dallas is certainly one of them. Look for Texas' Jonathon Brooks to be a potential target in Round 2.
• Draft and trade for yourself: Try PFF's Mock Draft Simulator — trade picks and players and mock for your favorite NFL team.
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Predicting 2024 NFL Draft outcomes seems like a futile task — nailing 10 picks in a mock draft is a job well done — but it’s the time of year when we all get to roleplay as our favorite NFL general managers and the prognostication is fun, whether or not we like to admit it.
Here, we forecast one decision by every NFL team, and the only certainty is that at least one will be correct.
JUMP TO A TEAM:
ARZ | ATL | BLT | BUF | CAR | CIN | CHI | CLE | DEN | DAL | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAX | KC | LVR | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF | SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
Arizona Cardinals: Draft multiple wide receivers in the top 100
The Cardinals are slated to start Greg Dortch and Chris Moore as two of their top three wide receivers. After losing DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown in consecutive offseasons, this is an offense in need of multiple additions at the position. Marvin Harrison Jr. with the fourth overall selection would make a lot of sense, but don’t be shocked if Arizona drafts two wideouts in the top 100.
Atlanta Falcons: Trade down from No. 8
If a team is looking to move into the backend of the top 10, Atlanta could be a good trade partner. Edge defender is the Falcons' biggest need, and they could realistically move into the mid-teens and still land one of Dallas Turner, Laiatu Latu or Jared Verse. All three rank in the top 20 of PFF’s final big board and would satisfy Atlanta's need at the position.
Baltimore Ravens: Trade up for an offensive lineman in Rounds 1 or 2
After trading away Morgan Moses, the third-highest-graded right tackle in the NFL last season, and restructuring left tackle Ronnie Stanley’s contract, the Ravens are facing 2024 and 2025 needs at both tackle spots. Picking 30th overall, they may need to move up in the first round if they want to grab any of the six offensive tackles in the top 20 of PFF’s big board. If Baltimore waits until Round 2, acquiring developmental players like Yale’s Kiran Amegadjie or BYU’s Kingsley Suamataia could require a trade-up from No. 62.
Buffalo Bills: Make an aggressive move for a wide receiver
After trading away Stefon Diggs, who saw 74 more targets than any other player on the Bills' roster in the regular season and playoffs last year, it wouldn’t be shocking if Buffalo is aggressive in adding a replacement. That could come in the form of a trade for a veteran, a small jump up to land a player like LSU’s Brian Thomas Jr. or an even bigger move to land one of the draft's top receivers.
Carolina Panthers: Don’t draft a wide receiver with their first pick
The Panthers' first draft pick is at the top of Round 2, and mock drafts have frequently paired them with a wide receiver. But after trading for Diontae Johnson, who recorded a career-high 1.90 yards per route run in 2023, from the Pittsburgh Steelers, they may go in a different direction at No. 33, before perhaps looking to wide receiver later in the second round.
Chicago Bears: Draft Caleb Williams
I'll be able to say I got at least one right.
Cincinnati Bengals: Draft Keon Coleman
Signs point toward Tee Higgins sticking around in Cincinnati in 2024 rather than being traded, but a long-term deal remains elusive for now. Florida State’s Coleman would be an ideal stylistic replacement for him if the two parties can't agree to an extension. A big-bodied receiver, he disappointed with his straight-line speed in the 40-yard dash, but his timed speed during the gauntlet drill was much more impressive and he generated an 85th-percentile PFF Game Athleticism Score among wide receivers in 2023.
Cleveland Browns: Draft a running back in the top 100
Nick Chubb is under contract for just one more season, so the Browns spending draft capital on a long-term replacement makes sense. Their third-round pick, 85th overall in the draft, is a spot where they could land one of Michigan’s Blake Corum, Tennessee’s Jaylen Wright or Florida State’s Trey Benson.
Dallas Cowboys: Draft the first running back
Not many teams need to draft a running back within the first 100 picks in this draft, but the Dallas Cowboys are one of them. The team's backfield is led by Rico Dowdle, Deuce Vaughn and Royce Freeman, so Dallas' second-round pick could very easily be spent on Texas’ Jonathon Brooks if he’s still on the board.
Denver Broncos: Don’t trade up from No. 12 for a quarterback
The Broncos are rumored to be a trade-up candidate for a quarterback, but that seems like a mistake based on their current draft capital. They don’t pick again until 76th overall, so they would likely need to mortgage future draft selections to move up. Instead, Denver may wait and see how the draft falls.
Detroit Lions: Trade out of the first round
The Lions don’t have any major immediate needs when they come on the clock at the end of Round 1, which makes them a perfect trade-back candidate. While many will assume that a potential trade partner will be looking for a quarterback, don’t be surprised if a team tries to get in front of the run of the Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs to grab an offensive lineman.
Green Bay Packers: Draft Graham Barton
Being confident in team and prospect pairings late in the first round is generally foolish, but Barton fits what the Packers look for athletically and would likely immediately start on their interior offensive line. He earned PFF grades above 73.0 in each of the past three seasons, all at left tackle.
Houston Texans: Draft a wide receiver in Round 2
The Texans made a big move at the position when they acquired Stefon Diggs from the Buffalo Bills, but a reworked deal means that he will be a free agent after this season. A wide receiver is not off the table with one of Houston's second-round picks.
Indianapolis Colts: Draft a cornerback in round one
The draft is likely to fall in a way where at least one of Toledo’s Quinyon Mitchell, Alabama’s Terrion Arnold or Iowa’s Cooper DeJean is on the board when the Colts pick at No. 15. It’s difficult to see them passing on one of those players, despite 2023 second-round draft pick JuJu Brents showing some potential in a rookie season that saw him earn a 64.5 PFF grade.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Draft Brian Thomas Jr.
The Jaguars lost Calvin Ridley in free agency, and their pick in the middle of the first round falls at a spot where Thomas becomes an option. He’s not viewed in the same class as the draft's top three receivers, but the consensus has him comfortably ahead of the next group, with an average draft position in PFF's Mock Draft Simulator five picks higher than the fifth player wide receiver off the board.
Kansas City Chiefs: Don’t draft Ladd McConkey
It’s a popular mock draft selection at the end of the first round, but I’m selling the Chiefs drafting the Georgia wide receiver with their first-round pick. 2023 third-rounder Wanya Morris earned a 55.6 PFF grade as a rookie, so finding another option at left tackle makes a lot more sense with the 32nd overall pick.
Las Vegas Raiders: Draft a cornerback in Round 1
The Raiders are likely out of the running for a first-round quarterback at No. 13. They could target an offensive tackle, but I think this is the ideal spot for one of the top cornerbacks to come off the board. Fourth-round rookie Jakorian Bennett struggled to a 41.1 PFF coverage grade in 2023, and Las Vegas would benefit from not needing a big step forward from him as a starter.
Los Angeles Chargers: Don’t trade down from No. 5
The Chargers are viewed as one of the most logical trade partners for the Minnesota Vikings to grab one of the top quarterbacks in this class. While it’s certainly logical, No. 5 is also a great spot for the Chargers to land either Notre Dame offensive tackle Joe Alt or one of the top receivers in the class. I think they stick where they are and draft a blue-chip player.
Los Angeles Rams: Trade up in Round 1
We’ve seen the Rams be aggressive in searching for a quarterback in the past, which is why I had them trading up into the top 10 for a quarterback in my final mock draft. Even if it’s not for a quarterback, don’t assume that they’ll sit at No. 19 and wait for the board to fall to them.
Miami Dolphins: Draft an offensive lineman in Round 1
The Dolphins are in position to grab one of the top offensive linemen in this class. Finding a long-term replacement for Terron Armstead, who earned a 79.3 PFF grade in 2023 but is nearing the end of his career, would be a smart move.
Minnesota Vikings: Don’t trade into the top five
The working assumption is that the Vikings will move up to land a quarterback, but that might be more difficult than many assume. The Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders aren’t moving down, and the Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Chargers could easily opt to stay put and draft top prospects like Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers and Joe Alt. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Minnesota can’t find a top-five trade suitor.
New England Patriots: Don’t draft a quarterback with No. 3
In my final mock draft, I have the Patriots not drafting a quarterback with the third overall pick and instead adding Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. The logic is that with what they have in terms of pass catchers, and on the offensive line, isn’t a great situation for a rookie quarterback to work from.
New Orleans Saints: Draft a right tackle in Round 1
Amid reports that right tackle Ryan Ramczyk might not play in 2024, finding a starting right tackle in the first round feels like a slam-dunk move for the Saints. Oregon State’s Taliese Fuaga, who led all tackles in college football last season in PFF run-blocking grade (90.9), would be a perfect fit.
New York Giants: Don’t draft a quarterback in Rounds 1 or 2
The caveat here is that I think the Giants would be delighted if Drake Maye slid to No. 6, but failing that, I don’t see them drafting a quarterback in the first round. New York could draft Michael Penix Jr. or Bo Nix if they fell into the second round, but it seems more likely that they draft a developmental passer in the third round and run it back with Daniel Jones in 2024 before taking stock after the season.
New York Jets: Draft Brock Bowers
There’s great debate around whether a team should spend a top pick on a tight end, with plenty of cautionary tales in the recent past. Bowers had a 99th-percentile PFF Game Athleticism Score among college tight ends in each of the past three seasons and could contribute on day one as the Jets chase a Super Bowl with quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
Philadelphia Eagles: Draft a player in the top 17 of PFF’s big board
The Eagles landed the Nos. 2 and 13 players on the PFF big board last year, Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith, despite picking at Nos. 9 and 30, respectively. They’ve gotten good at finding value in the draft, so with the 22nd overall pick, look for them to grab a falling player who is a top prospect on the PFF board.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Trade up in Round 1
The Steelers made a small jump in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft to land tackle Broderick Jones. He flashed enough as a rookie, with six starts of earning a 60.0-plus PFF grade, that they should feel good about that move. Pittsburgh owns the 20th overall selection in this draft, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the team trade up three to four spots to grab another offensive lineman.
San Francisco 49ers: Draft an offensive lineman with their first pick
The 49ers don’t have many true needs heading into this draft, but the ideal fit at the end of the first round is likely an offensive lineman. The draft is full of future starting guards and potential long-term starters at left tackle, so look for the 49ers to go in that direction in the first round.
Seattle Seahawks: Draft defense in Round 1
New Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald is arguably the best defensive mind in the game right now, so finding players who fit his style will be key. Given how offensive-heavy this draft figures to be early in the first round, Seattle could land a premier defensive player with the 16th overall selection.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Draft an edge defender in round one
The ideal scenario for the Buccaneers, and one that seems to happen frequently in mock drafts, is that a top-three edge defender falls to them at No. 26. They may not be that fortunate in reality, and could opt to move up for Laiatu Latu or Jared Verse, but this is a spot where Penn State pass-rushing supremo Chop Robinson, who won 20.9% of his pass-rush reps in 2023, could come off the board.
Tennessee Titans: Draft an offensive tackle at No. 7
Joe Alt is often the pick at No. 7 in mock drafts, and the only potential problem for the Titans would be if the Los Angeles Chargers or New York Giants grab him first. Even if that happens, Tennessee could simply turn its attention to the second-best tackle on the board, whether that’s Olu Fashanu, who allowed just 10 quarterback pressures last season, Taliese Fuaga or JC Latham.
Washington Commanders: Draft Drake Maye
All the smoke says the Commanders are settling on LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels at No. 2, but it feels eerily similar to when the San Francisco 49ers were reportedly locked in on Mac Jones in 2021, only for them to draft Trey Lance. Commanders general manager Adam Peters was with the 49ers back then, and I’m betting that this is an identical scenario. Maye ranks second in this class in 2023 big-time throws (35) and should be the second quarterback off the board.
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