The 2024 NFL Draft is fast approaching. The PFF big board is live, mock draft season is in full swing and the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine has wrapped up.
This year's crop of wide receiver prospects showcases some potential NFL stars, with Ohio State star Marvin Harrison Jr. emerging as the standout. Behind Harrison, we have LSU’s Malik Nabers and Washington’s Rome Odunze, who are top-10 prospects in this class.
It’s a good time for NFL teams to need receiver help.
Let's look at Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr., the 2023 Biletnikoff Award winner and one of the most tantalizing wide receiver prospects ever.
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SCOUTING SUMMARY
Harrison is one of the most complete prospects you will find. He understands how to win at the position like few college players do. He is well beyond his years in his releases, his route tree and his IQ to set up and manipulate defenders when creating throwing windows.
For a player as tall as he is (6-foot-4), his footwork, change of direction and long speed are excellent. He also has very reliable hands and the hand-eye coordination to make tough contested catches.
One area he could have stood to improve from 2022 was his after-the-catch ability, and he proved in 2023 that he can deliver in such situations.
WINS ABOVE AVERAGE
WAA represents the number of wins a player is worth over an average college football player and is a metric that evaluators can utilize to assess performance. It combines how well a player performed in each facet of play (using PFF grades) and how valuable each facet is to winning football games. The result is a first-of-its-kind metric that allows for cross-positional valuation and predicts future value at the player and team levels.
HOW HARRISON RANKS IN THE STABLE METRICS
Receiving grades are relatively stable from year to year, but there is always some level of dependency on quarterback play when evaluating receivers. Isolating receivers against single coverage versus zone is informative, as it shows how much was earned in one-on-one situations compared to more scheme-driven production. Advanced data shows how open receivers are on their targeted routes, and separation percentage is one way to isolate the receiver away from his quarterback.
As far as advanced stats go, yards per route run (YPRR) is one of the best measures of a wide receiver’s production, as it takes into account how well he takes advantage of his opportunities.
Average depth of target (aDOT) and yards after the catch per reception are informative about a receiver’s usage pattern, and his after-the-catch expectations are directly affected by how far down the field he is targeted. Both numbers are as much about style as they are about production.
Compared to other players with PFF college data, Harrison’s metrics in the most predictive of data subsets measure up extremely well.
Harrison has consistently been one of college football’s best receivers, and it’s very difficult to poke holes in his game. His first step and ability to leverage defenders in man coverage is phenomenal, and he has savvy eyes to manipulate zone defenders. He was deemed open on 200 of his career 248 targets, 40th among 386 qualified receivers.
While his YAC ability isn’t his strong suit, he produced a 65th-percentile 6.4 yards after the catch per reception in 2023, drastically improving his career numbers.
He has some lofty expectations right when he steps on an NFL field, but whichever team drafts him is getting a legit playmaker.
HARRISON’S PROJECTIONS
Here are Harrison’s rookie-year projections for yards per reception and completion percentage in an offense that likes to push the ball downfield.
Let’s look at how Harrison does in an offense that relies on a quick, underneath passing game.
BOTTOM LINE FROM PFF's 2024 NFL DRAFT GUIDE
Harrison comes from Hall of Fame bloodlines, and you can see that in his tape without even knowing his last name. He has a truly rare blend of size, speed, strength and football IQ for such a young player.
He will be a WR1-caliber player the day he is drafted and one in the mold of a Tier 1 NFL wideout.
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