• Chop Robinson brings elite potential but a lack of length: His athletic gifts suggest he should be drafted in the top 10, but some of the physical concerns have him going later in mock drafts.
• Xavier Worthy's speed makes him an intriguing wide receiver prospect: He ran a record-breaking 4.21-second 40-yard dash at the NFL scouting combine but also measured in at a 1st-percentile weight of 165 pounds.
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As the 2024 NFL Draft nears, we'll continue diving into prospects in various capacities. The players listed below are garnering a lot of draft hype for their ceilings but also have lower floors. These are some boom-or-bust prospects — or ones with a high ceiling and a low floor, more accurately — to keep an eye on in the 2024 NFL Draft.
EDGE Chop Robinson, Penn State
Robinson is incredibly talented. The 6-foot-3, 255-pound defensive end turned heads at the NFL scouting combine by placing in the 95th percentile or above in the 10-yard split, 40-yard dash and broad jump. He was also an 84th-percentile athlete in the short shuttle.
Yet, Robinson's production over the past few seasons was less than stellar, including only 5 1/2 sacks in 2022 and four sacks in 2023. Now, he did earn PFF pass-rushing grades of 92.4 and 92.3 in each of the past two seasons with 20.0%-plus pass-rush win rates, which is very impressive. The risk here stems from Robinson's lack of length, both in his legs and his arms, and how that projects to the next level. His wingspan ranks in the 5th percentile for edge rushers, and his stride length doesn’t cover much ground at the snap, even with his explosiveness.
Robinson wins primarily off athleticism right now, which is tough to do in the NFL. His athletic gifts suggest he should be drafted in the top 10, but some of the physical concerns have him going later in mock drafts.
T Olu Fashanu, Penn State
Fashanu entered the 2023 season as one of the top offensive tackles in the draft class, and while he is still an alluring talent, the hype has cooled off due to his boom-or-bust nature.
Fashanu is a smooth-moving left tackle in pass protection while ranking near the 50th percentile for height, weight and length at the position. Even with a thigh injury, he tested very well at the NFL scouting combine. The concerns about his play aren't based on a lack of athleticism but, rather, a lack of power and density. He graded out poorly over the past two seasons when edge rushers went straight into his chest with NFL-level power. That was an issue for him coming into the season, and it did not improve as much as one would have wanted in 2023. Handling powerful defensive linemen will only get tougher in the NFL.
WR Xavier Worthy, Texas
Worthy has blazing speed, and he showed as much on his Texas tape over the past three seasons and at the NFL scouting combine by running a record-breaking 4.21-second 40-yard dash. But while he posted a 99th-percentile 40 time, he also measured in at a 1st-percentile weight of 165 pounds.
Strength was an issue for Worthy, at times, throughout his Texas career. That was visible in the form of getting free from stronger defenders in press and also when securing catches. Worthy has the speed to be a major difference-maker, but there is a baseline for strength that is needed to succeed at the NFL level.
WR Keon Coleman, Florida State
Coleman is an alpha receiver who can command attention on the line of scrimmage as an X. He isn’t afraid of press coverage, and he doesn’t shy away from making catches in traffic versus man coverage, hauling in 22 contested catches over the past two seasons.
However, despite his 6-foot-3, 213-pound frame, Coleman does come with some warnings. His contested-catch ability is great, but you wish he didn’t have to make those tough catches all the time. Over the past two years, he ranked in the 12th percentile for separation generated versus single coverage. He then ran a surprisingly low 17th-percentile 40-yard dash (4.61 seconds) at the NFL scouting combine. Coleman is a fascinating prospect who some will love and some will stay away from.
DI Braden Fiske, Florida State
Fiske was incredible at both the Senior Bowl and the NFL scouting combine this draft season. At the Senior Bowl, his reaction time to the snap and his quickness to get beyond interior blockers was unmatched. He also placed in the 90th percentile or above for defensive tackles in the 40-yard dash, vertical jump, broad jump and short shuttle. That elite quickness shows up on tape in how he plays. What makes him boom or bust is his lack of length. His wingspan and arm length rank in the 5th and 3rd percentiles, respectively, for the position. Ultimately, we'll know more about his boom-or-bust potential based on where he is drafted.
T Amarius Mims, Georgia
Mims has all the talent in the world to be a starting offensive tackle in the NFL. As a former five-star recruit, Mims carried a 6-foot-8 frame at 340 pounds better than just about any other human being who is close to those measurables. He also moves incredibly well for a player that big. However, Mims played only 803 total snaps in his college career, which is less than half of most 2024 offensive tackle prospects' workloads. Mims’ lack of experience could lead to a steep NFL learning curve. On the flip side, his athletic and physical gifts could put him in position to settle in nicely right away. Only time, and his situation, will tell.
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