- Star quarterbacks kick off the redraft: Baker Mayfield remains a top-three pick, but Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson move past him at the top of a 2018 NFL redraft.
- Fred Warner skyrockets into the top five: The third-round pick has developed into the NFL's best linebacker, with four first-team All-Pro nods in his career.
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Estimated Reading Time: 20 minutes
The NFL draft is a crapshoot.
While NFL teams do their best to forecast which prospects will translate best to the next level, the reality is that franchises rarely get a pick exactly right.
But what would a draft look like if teams had the benefit of hindsight? PFF has world-class data for every player on every play in every NFL game, dating back to the 2006 season. Knowing what we know now, here is how the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft could have looked.
Any trades made during the original draft were reversed, while trades made before the draft were kept in place.
1. Cleveland Browns: QB Josh Allen, Wyoming (Round 1, Pick 7)
- Original Pick: QB Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma
Mayfield certainly looked the part of a starting quarterback, even a franchise-caliber quarterback, in 2023 and 2024, but Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson would still be the choice here.
After earning PFF overall grades in the 60.0s in his first two seasons, Allen became the only quarterback since 2006 to earn five straight single-season marks above 90.0.
2. New York Giants: QB Lamar Jackson, Louisville (Round 1, Pick 32)
- Original Pick: RB Saquon Barkley, Penn State
Barkley has been as advertised, establishing himself as one of the best running backs in the NFL. However, the Giants had Eli Manning for only one more season after this draft. With the benefit of hindsight, it would have been a no-brainer to take Jackson, who has already won multiple MVPs and in 2024 became the only quarterback in PFF history to record passing and rushing grades above 90.0 in the same season.
3. New York Jets: QB Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma (Round 1, Pick 1)
- Original Pick: QB Sam Darnold, USC
Mayfield, the original first-overall pick, showed some promise with the Browns, earning a 79.1 PFF passing grade as a rookie and an 85.2 PFF passing grade in his third season. But an unstable situation in Cleveland led to his eventual trade after the team acquired Deshaun Watson.
Mayfield’s NFL story was nearly over until two years ago, when he signed with Tampa Bay. He’s back to his winning ways with the Buccaneers and has looked the part as a franchise-caliber quarterback, earning an 83.6 PFF passing grade in 2024.
4. Cleveland Browns: LB Fred Warner, BYU (Round 3, Pick 70)
- Original Pick: CB Denzel Ward, Ohio State
The Browns held two top-five picks thanks to their deal with the Texans the year prior. Denzel Ward, their original selection, is one of the best cornerbacks in the game when healthy. Fred Warner is the choice in this redraft, though, as he has made four Pro Bowls and earned four first-team All-Pro nods in his career while posting an 80.0-plus PFF overall grade in each of the past five seasons.
Warner has also earned a PFF run-defense grade and a PFF coverage grade above 80.0 in each of the past three years. Simply put, he’s one of the best players in the game at one of the hardest positions to put forth consistent performances.
5. Denver Broncos: T Jordan Mailata, Australia (Round 1, Pick 233)
- Original Pick: EDGE Bradley Chubb, North Carolina State
The Broncos drafted Garett Bolles in the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft and, in hindsight, could have formed one of the best offensive tackle duos for the next half-decade if they picked Mailata in 2018. To be fair, Mailata went in the seventh round and had never played American football before the NFL.
Now, he's a star and a Super Bowl Champion. Mailata earned single-season PFF overall grades above 80.0 from 2019 to 2024, and his 95.2 mark in 2024 was the second-highest single-season grade ever for an offensive lineman, trailing only Trent Williams’ 96.6 from the 2021 campaign.
6. Indianapolis Colts: G Quenton Nelson, Notre Dame (Round 1, Pick 6)
- Original Pick: G Quenton Nelson, Notre Dame
It’s hard to argue the Colts would have gone in a different direction in a redraft, given who remains on the board. Nelson has earned single-season PFF overall grades above 80.0 in four of his seven seasons, with a floor of 68.0 over that span. He’s one of the best run blockers in the league, earning four single-season 80.0-plus PFF run-blocking grades to prove it.
Most Valuable Guards Since 2018, by PFF WAR
| Rank | Name | 2025 Team | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quenton Nelson | Indianapolis Colts | 3.08 |
| 2 | Joel Bitonio | Cleveland Browns | 3.05 |
| 3 | Joe Thuney | Chicago Bears | 2.68 |
| 4 | Zack Martin | Retired | 2.48 |
| 5 | Kevin Zeitler | Tennessee Titans | 2.38 |
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: S Minkah Fitzpatrick, Alabama (Round 1, Pick 11)
- Original Pick: QB Josh Allen, Wyoming
The Buccaneers dealt this pick on draft night to the Bills, who moved up to take Josh Allen. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay drafted Vita Vea at No. 12. Vea is still a strong option here, but the Buccaneers' secondary was poor in 2017 and needed reinforcements.
Fitzpatrick, a versatile safety/nickel defender, would have been a perfect player for Todd Bowles’ defense, once he was hired as the team's defensive coordinator the following year. The three-time first-team All-Pro has earned PFF run-defense grades above 80.0 in four of his seven seasons, with only one season of falling below 70.0.
8. Chicago Bears: RB Saquon Barkley, Penn State (Round 1, Pick 2)
- Original Pick: LB Roquan Smith, Georgia
The Bears could have picked a handful of secondary players in this redraft, but their secondary at the time already featured a few standouts. What they didn’t have was a stable run game. Jordan Howard was coming off a 1,200-yard season, but 2018 was his last year in Chicago.
Barkley could have been a cornerstone of the Bears' offense as they tried to figure out their quarterback situation. In the five seasons in which he has played the most snaps, he has posted PFF rushing grades above 70.0 while contributing in the receiving game.
9. San Francisco 49ers: S Jessie Bates III, Wake Forest (Round 2, Pick 54)
- Original Pick: T Mike McGlinchey, Notre Dame
Adrian Colbert, the 49ers' starting safety in 2018, was gone by 2019, hence the selection of Bates here. He has been one of the best safeties in the league for more than half a decade, earning an 80.0-plus PFF run-defense grade in four of his seven seasons. He is equally good in coverage, having similarly earned four 80.0-plus marks in that facet. Bates owns a 93.0 PFF coverage grade at free safety over the past two years.
10. Las Vegas Raiders: CB Denzel Ward, Ohio State (Round 4, Pick 4)
- Original Pick: QB Josh Rosen, UCLA
Ward was originally picked fourth overall, and although he goes a few spots lower in this redraft, he has still been one of the better cornerbacks in the league when healthy. Across seven years, he has earned single-season PFF coverage grades above 70.0 four times when aligned in single coverage. In 2024, he earned an elite 91.7 mark in one-on-one coverage.
11. Miami Dolphins: WR DJ Moore, Maryland (Round 1, Pick 24)
- Original Pick: S Minkah Fitzpatrick, Alabama
The Dolphins had DeVante Parker back in 2018, but not much stability or production at the position around him. Whether it’s been in Chicago or Charlotte, Moore has provided just that. He has earned single-season PFF receiving grades above 73.0 in every season, headlined by a near-elite 89.5 figure in 2023.
12. Buffalo Bills: T Kolton Miller, UCLA (Round 1, Pick 15)
- Original Pick: DI Vita Vea, Washington
The Bills traded up for quarterback Josh Allen in 2018, which they would love to do again — except Allen is off the board No. 1 in this redraft. Instead, they can pair 2017 draft selection Dion Dawkins, who has turned out to be a very good starting tackle, with Miller, who has been a model of consistency himself. The UCLA product has recorded an 80.0-plus PFF overall grade in each of the past four seasons.
13. Washington: DI Vita Vea, Washington (Round 1, Pick 12)
- Original Pick: DI Daron Payne, Alabama
When deciding between Vea and Payne in this redraft, the Commanders go with the more consistent and impactful interior defender. Payne has started 109 games over the past seven seasons with 34.5 sacks, while Vea has started 90 games with 30.5 sacks. But Vea claims the PFF grading battle. He has earned a 73.0 PFF overall grade or better in all but one season, whereas Payne’s career-high mark is 70.6.
14. Green Bay Packers: CB Jaire Alexander, Louisville (Round 1, Pick 18)
- Original Pick: EDGE Marcus Davenport, UTSA
Though Alexander, for the first time, won't play for the Packers in 2025, he is one of the best cornerbacks in the game when healthy. And Green Bay thus drafts him once again.
The Louisville product has earned single-season PFF coverage grades above 80.0 in three of his seven seasons and has never fallen below 70.0. His floor is just as impressive as his ceiling.
Most Valuable Cornerbacks Since 2018, by PFF WAR
| Rank | Name | 2025 Team | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jalen Ramsey | Pittsburgh Steelers | 3.55 |
| 2 | Jaire Alexander | Baltimore Ravens | 3.02 |
| 3 | Kendall Fuller | Free Agent | 2.94 |
| 4 | Charvarius Ward | Indianapolis Colts | 2.92 |
| 5 | Jamel Dean | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 2.85 |
15. Arizona Cardinals: LB Roquan Smith, Georgia (Round 1, Pick 8)
- Original Pick: T Kolton Miller, UCLA
At the time, the Cardinals were searching for a steady presence in the middle of their defense. Smith has been a model of tackling consistency, earning PFF tackling grades above 75.0 in every season and having logged more than 1,000 career tackles already.
He also has two seasons (2020 and 2023) with 80.0-plus PFF coverage grades. Some spotty PFF run-defense grades and pass-rush grades throughout his career keep him from being selected earlier.
16. Baltimore Ravens: S Derwin James Jr., Florida State (Round 1, Pick 17)
- Original Pick: LB Tremaine Edmunds, Virginia Tech
Tony Jefferson and Eric Weddle slotted into the Ravens' starting safety spots in 2018, and by the following season, they were both gone. Baltimore started a new free safety every year for the next four seasons.
James has missed time in his career due to injuries, but in the six seasons he has played, he has earned five single-season 78.0-plus PFF overall grades. He is an all-around talent, tallying 70.0-plus PFF grades across all categories — overall, run defense, tackling, pass rush and coverage — 25 out of a possible 30 times, four of which were in 2023.
17. Los Angeles Chargers: C Frank Ragnow, Arkansas (Round 1, Pick 20)
- Original Pick: S Derwin James Jr., Florida State
Mike Pouncey was still the Chargers’ starting center in 2018, but the Chargers then slotted in a new center for three straight years before landing on Corey Linsley. Ragnow could’ve given them that consistency much earlier. Though he retired after just seven seasons, he earned a single-season PFF overall grade above 80.0 in four of them, with PFF run-blocking grades above 90.0 in three of his final four years, too.
18. Seattle Seahawks: T Brian O'Neill, Pittsburgh (Round 2, Pick 62)
- Original Pick: CB Jaire Alexander, Louisville
The Packers originally jumped up to this spot to draft cornerback Jaire Alexander. The Seahawks didn’t pick until the end of the first round back in 2018, before eventually drafting running back Rashaad Penny, who never managed more than 750 rushing yards in any of his six regular seasons.
If they had a do-over here, Seattle may try to pair Duane Brown at left tackle with O'Neill at right tackle. O'Neill would have been the perfect solution on the right side, having logged more than 7,100 snaps there in his seven NFL seasons, with only one year of recording a sub-70.0 PFF overall grade.
19. Dallas Cowboys: G Wyatt Teller, Virginia Tech (Round 5, Pick 166)
- Original Pick: LB Leighton Vander Esch, Boise State
The Cowboys had an opening at left guard prior to the 2018 NFL Draft, one they filled with Connor Williams in the second round. However, in hindsight, they could have done even better by bringing in Teller to play opposite Zack Martin. Teller had a dominant stretch between 2020-2022, including a 92.6 PFF overall grade and a 93.6 PFF run-blocking grade in 2020.
20. Detroit Lions: TE Mark Andrews, Oklahoma (Round 3, Pick 86)
- Original Pick: C Frank Ragnow, Arkansas
The Lions had to have been very happy about getting Frank Ragnow, as he was a consistent starter for them on the interior for many years. However, with him and Wyatt Teller off the board, they are wise to grab Andrews.
The Pro Bowl tight end has never recorded a single-season PFF receiving grade below 73.0 in his career, with four of his seven seasons coming in above 80.0 and even one slotting into elite territory (91.0 in 2021). Andrews would have been an instant starter who could've had an instant impact in Detroit.
Most Valuable Tight Ends Since 2018, by PFF WAR
| Rank | Name | 2025 Team | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Travis Kelce | Kansas City Chiefs | 4.88 |
| 2 | George Kittle | San Francisco 49ers | 3.70 |
| 3 | Mark Andrews | Baltimore Ravens | 2.93 |
| 4 | Dallas Goedert | Philadelphia Eagles | 2.56 |
| 5 | Zach Ertz | Washington Commanders | 2.57 |
21. Cincinnati Bengals: T Braden Smith, Auburn (Round 2, Pick 37)
- Original Pick: C Billy Price, Ohio State
Smith has been a reliable right tackle for the Colts since draft day in 2018, tallying an 80.0-plus PFF overall grade in three of his seven seasons and finishing above 70.0 in all but one. He also has three seasons with an 86.0-plus PFF run blocking grade.
22. Buffalo Bills: DI Daron Payne, Alabama (Round 1, Pick 13)
- Original Pick: LB Rashaan Evans, Alabama
Kyle Williams and Star Lotulelei departed Buffalo over the following two seasons after the 2018 NFL Draft, leaving the team thin at defensive tackle. Payne hasn’t been a high-impact player on his own (though he did have 11.5 sacks in 2023), but he would have been a solid choice for the Bills in hindsight as an anchor on their interior.
23. New England Patriots: T Mike McGlinchey, Notre Dame (Round 1, Pick 9)
- Original Pick: T Isaiah Wynn, Georgia
At the time, the Patriots went with offensive tackle Isaiah Wynn, who was versatile but inconsistent. McGlinchey, originally a top-10 pick, is still worthy of a first-round selection, despite a few tackles going ahead of him in this redraft.
Across seven seasons, he has never recorded a single-season PFF overall grade above 80.0. But he has also never dipped below 67.0.
24. Carolina Panthers: WR Calvin Ridley, Alabama (Round 1, Pick 26)
DJ Moore was exactly what the Panthers needed in 2018, as he led the team in receiving yards as a rookie. With him off the board, they still could opt for a receiver, although there is no clear choice. Ridley has logged only one single-season sub-70.0 PFF receiving grade, with his best, an 84.7, coming in 2020.
25. Tennessee Titans: EDGE Bradley Chubb, North Carolina State (Round 1, Pick 5)
- Original Pick: TE Hayden Hurst, South Carolina
With the Titans still on the clock in this redraft, they select Chubb, who went No. 5 on draft day but hasn’t delivered the consistency or the health to live up to that billing. He did have a stellar 2023 season, earning an 88.8 PFF overall grade with an 84.4 PFF pass-rush grade while leading.
26. Atlanta Falcons: CB D.J. Reed, Kansas State (Round 5, Pick 142)
- Original Pick: WR Calvin Ridley, Alabama
The Falcons needed a wide receiver in this draft, as Calvin Ridley, their original choice, was second to Julio Jones in basically every receiving category. But cornerback D.J. Reed also would have helped fix a glaring weakness.
Reed has earned a PFF coverage grade above 70.0 in six straight seasons following his rookie year, and he’s done it with three teams.
27. New Orleans Saints: WR Courtland Sutton, SMU (Round 2, Pick 40)
- Original Pick: RB Rashaad Penny, San Diego State
We're resetting the picks to pre-draft night, so the Saints are picking at No. 27. New Orleans still had Drew Brees and Michael Thomas at this point, but Tre'Quan Smith was the team's second leading receiver as a rookie in 2018. Sutton hasn’t been the most dominant receiver over the past half decade, but he’s been solid. He has earned five single-season PFF receiving grades above 71.0 with two 1,000-yard seasons since 2018.
Most Valuable 2018 NFL Draft WRs, by PFF WAR
| Rank | Name | 2025 Team | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DJ Moore | Chicago Bears | 2.16 |
| 2 | Courtland Sutton | Denver Broncos | 1.52 |
| 3 | Calvin Ridley | Tennessee Titans | 1.25 |
| 4 | Christian Kirk | Houston Texans | 1.05 |
| 5 | Michael Gallup | Washington Commanders | 0.80 |
28. Pittsburgh Steelers: LB Shaquille Leonard, South Carolina State (Round 2, Pick 36)
- Original Pick: S Terrell Edmunds, Virginia Tech
The Steelers started Jon Bostic at middle linebacker in 2018, then Mark Barron in 2019 and then Robert Spillane in 2020. Leonard would have halted that revolving door, as he earned PFF overall grades of 81.4, 78.7, 70.4 and 79.1 in his first four seasons before major drop-offs in 2022 and 2023 after suffering a back injury.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars: TE Dallas Goedert, South Dakota State (Round 2, Pick 49)
- Original Pick: DI Taven Bryan, Florida
At the time, the Jaguars were starting James O'Shaughnessy at tight end. Goedert would have been an immediate upgrade. He has earned a single-season PFF receiving grade above 70.0 in all but one season, including an elite 91.1 mark in 2021.
30. Minnesota Vikings: CB Carlton Davis III, Auburn (Round 2, Pick 63)
- Original Pick: CB Mike Hughes, North Carolina
The Vikings needed some cornerback depth, and starters Trae Waynes and Xavier Rhodes were both gone in two years following the 2018 NFL Draft.
David has endured his ups and downs but has posted a single-season PFF coverage grade above 70.0 in three of his seven campaigns, with some elite single-game figures.
31. New England Patriots: EDGE John Franklin-Myers, Stephen F. Austin (Round 4, Pick 135)
- Original Pick: RB Sony Michel, Georgia
The Patriots started Trey Flowers and Deatrich Wise on the edge in 2018, and they teamed up for 12 sacks. But it was a revolving door at those spots for the next few seasons. Franklin-Myers has been fantastic for both the Jets and Broncos as a versatile lineman. He has two seasons (2021 and 2022) with an 80.0-plus PFF overall grade and four seasons with a 70.0-plus PFF pass-rush grade.
32. Philadelphia Eagles: EDGE Josh Sweat, Florida State (Round 4, Pick 130)
- Original Pick: QB Lamar Jackson, Louisville
Back in 2018, the Ravens traded up to the final pick of the draft to grab future multi-MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson. The Eagles selected Sweat in the fourth round, and he has since well outplayed that slot. It took Sweat a little while to find his footing, but he has earned a PFF pass-rush grade above 72.0 in three of the past four seasons.
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