DFS data dive: Highest fantasy football ceilings of Week 5

Key to DFS success: Random combinations of historically similar matchups can identify counterintuitive and lower-cost DFS options with exceeding upside.
Best relative DFS values: Tom Brady and Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback, Jeff Wilson and James Conner at running back, rookies Christian Kirk and Amari Cooper at wide receiver, Juwan Johnson at tight end, and the Tennessee Titans and Dallas Cowboys at defense are the best values relative to their DFS price for Week 5.

Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

I publish analyses on the single-game DraftKings showdown slates that use the combination of current projections, historical game results and similarity algorithms to simulate an upcoming game by looking back at the most similar historical matchups. In this analysis, I’m taking the same outline and applying it instead to the DFS main slate by projecting the likelihood each individual quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and D/ST option will be the highest scorer of the slate. In doing this, we can find the unlikely tournament plays who may not have been on your radar.

QUARTERBACKS

Highest %	Player	Team	Opponent	DK Fpts	DK Salary	FD Fpts	FD Salary
11.4	Josh Allen	BUF	PIT	27.3	8,200	25.5	9,000
11.1	Tom Brady	TB	ATL	24.2	6,000	22.4	7,800
9.7	Jalen Hurts	PHI	ARZ	26.7	8,100	24.8	8,600
7.9	Teddy Bridgewater	MIA	NYJ	20.7	5,400	19.6	6,400
6.4	Kirk Cousins	MIN	CHI	21.4	6,300	19.8	7,100
6.0	Jameis Winston	NO	SEA	20.1	5,500	18.8	7,300
5.3	Justin Herbert	LAC	CLV	20.0	7,100	18.7	8,200
4.6	Justin Fields	CHI	MIN	16.9	5,300	15.9	6,600
4.2	Kyler Murray	ARZ	PHI	20.8	7,400	19.7	8,100
4.1	Jacoby Brissett	CLV	LAC	18.9	5,600	17.7	6,700
3.7	Ryan Tannehill	TEN	WAS	17.8	5,800	17.0	6,900
3.6	Mac Jones	NE	DET	18.4	5,200	17.2	6,600
3.5	Matthew Stafford	LA	DAL	19.8	6,400	18.5	7,400
3.3	Kenny Pickett	PIT	BUF	15.6	5,100	14.6	6,500
2.9	Marcus Mariota	ATL	TB	18.0	5,400	16.7	6,800
2.6	Jared Goff	DET	NE	15.1	6,100	14.2	8,000
2.4	Zach Wilson	NYJ	MIA	16.9	5,300	15.8	7,200
2.1	Davis Mills	HST	JAX	16.9	5,000	15.6	6,400
2.1	Trevor Lawrence	JAX	HST	19.2	5,600	18.0	7,600
2.0	Geno Smith	SEA	NO	18.4	5,500	17.0	6,900
1.2	Jimmy Garoppolo	SF	CAR	17.3	5,400	16.3	7,000
1.2	Cooper Rush	DAL	LA	17.1	5,400	15.9	6,500
0.9	Carson Wentz	WAS	TEN	17.5	5,700	16.3	6,800
0.7	Baker Mayfield	CAR	SF	13.9	5,100	13.0	6,400