College Football Week 9 Preview: Storylines, matchups and predictions for the biggest games

• LSU–Texas A&M: First place in the SEC is on the line in this top-15 matchup.

• Missouri–Alabama: The loser of this game sees its College Football Playoff dreams all but die.

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Estimated Reading Time: 31 minutes

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With the College Football Playoff tripling in size, so many more games matter in the race to be in the final 12. 

Because of that, we are previewing 10 games in Week 9, easily the most we’ve ever done. Here are the storylines to know, matchups to watch and predictions for 10 of the biggest games this weekend.

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Syracuse Orange at No. 19 Pittsburgh Panthers (Thursday, 7:30 PM ET on ESPN)

Storyline to know: Can Pittsburgh continue its incredible run?

Pitt has been one of the biggest surprises in the 2024 college football season. Last year, the Panthers finished 3-9, which was their worst record this century. They entered this season with just a 5.5 projected win total. Pittsburgh has already surpassed that in the first half of the year and is 6-0 for the first time since 1982, back when the legendary Dan Marino was quarterbacking the program. 

Pitt looks to further prove its legitimacy as an ACC contender against Syracuse, who sports a 5-1 record and received the second-most votes among unranked schools in the AP poll this week. 

Matchup to watch when Pittsburgh has the ball (Dalton):

Pittsburgh has come away with some incredibly close wins through the first half of the season. The Panthers' four wins over Power Five teams have come by a combined 17 points. They are obviously a good team but have also been the recipients of some good fortune.

That is evident when examining their quarterback, Eli Holstein. While he carries a solid 15:5 touchdown to interception ratio, his 12 turnover-worthy plays are tied for the second-most in the Power Five. He also leads the Power Five with seven dropped interceptions. The result is Holstein carrying a 57.9 passing grade for the season.

Ten of those 12 turnover-worthy plays have come about on his first read, as he has a tendency to telegraph throws with his eyes and allow zone defenders to get a jump on the ball.

Syracuse’s coverage hasn’t been great this season as they rank 86th in the FBS in coverage grade. The Orange's secondary hasn’t gotten its hands on the ball at an elite rate, but Holstein still needs to be wary of giving them opportunities to do so.

Matchup to watch when Syracuse has the ball (Max): Does Pitt continue to send the house against Kyle McCord?

The biggest reason for Syracuse’s success this year is due to its new star quarterback in Kyle McCord. The Ohio State transfer is eighth among all signal-callers in America with a 90.1 PFF grade this season while his 21 big-time throws are tied for the most in the FBS. 

The biggest reason for his leap into stardom has been his performance when defenses try to get after him. He struggled last year against the blitz and when under pressure at Ohio State. Opposing defenses must’ve seen that and tape are blitzing him more than any other in college football (140 dropbacks). Suffice to say, McCord is making them pay.

The difference in Kyle McCord when blitzed/when under pressure:

Pittsburgh has sent a blitz 211 times this year, tied for the most in the Power Four. That’s helped the Panthers generate pressure at the 16th-best rate in the country (38.5%). Pat Narduzzi would be wise to be a little more conservative against McCord, especially considering his secondary is vulnerable (73rd-best team coverage grade).

Predictions

Dalton: Syracuse 27, Pittsburgh 19

When facing Power Five defenses this season, Pittsburgh’s offense has struggled to find consistency. This game is a duel of high-risk quarterbacks, but the payoff with McCord has been better so far this season.

Max: Syracuse 31, Pittsburgh 28

If Pitt blitzes Syracuse as much as it has been all season, that favors the Orange as McCord has been excellent in those situations and the Panthers have a below-average secondary. I think SU wins in a close one and ruins Pittsburgh’s undefeated season.

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No. 17 Boise State Broncos at UNLV Rebels (Friday, 10:30 PM ET on CBS Sports Network)

Storyline to know: A huge game for the Group of Five playoff race

Friday’s game between Boise State and UNLV is one of the biggest regular-season games for the Group of Five, if not the biggest. The Broncos are currently the highest-ranked team in that group, while the Rebels received the fourth-most votes. The winner establishes itself as the favorite in the Mountain West conference and one of the top Group of Five contenders for the playoff.

Based on recent years, it could also eliminate the loser from the College Football Playoff race. In four of the last five seasons, the highest-ranked Group of Five team heading into bowl season had fewer than two losses, something the loser would have. 

Matchup to watch when UNLV has the ball (Dalton):

The Rebels show a ton of diversity in their run game, which has produced the fifth-most rushing yards per game in the FBS. However, their best player is wide receiver Ricky White, who balances out the offense by winning single coverage matchups on the outside.

White got off to a slow start through the first three games of this season, racking up just 126 yards through the Rebels’ first three games. Since Hajj-Malik Williams took over at quarterback, there has been a greater emphasis on getting White the football, and he has dominated.

Ricky White since Week 5:

Boise State does a relatively nice job of preventing explosive plays and covering well enough in order for its pass rush to win. In last season’s Mountain West title game, White caught six passes totaling 86 yards. All of those yards came in the first half. Even as UNLV was down on the scoreboard the entire day, Boise allowed White just one target in the entire second half of the game.

The Broncos did a terrific job of mixing coverages and rotating defenders in White’s direction. If the Rebels can’t consistently get him going in this matchup, they could struggle in a similar manner as they did in last year’s game.

Matchup to watch when Boise State has the ball (Max): Ashton Jeanty… that’s it

Every time Ashton Jeanty touches the football, all of America holds their breath. College football’s version of Michael Myers has been murdering opposing defenses this season on his way to one of the greatest statistical seasons in running back history. It’s led to him being the current betting favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. If the junior takes home the stiff-arm trophy, he’d become the first non-quarterback from a non-power conference to win the award since 1960. 

Ashton Jeanty’s historic first six games:

*Since PFF began charting college football in 2014

UNLV’s run defense has been below average this year. The Rebels are currently tied for 76th in run-defense grade and are 113th in yards after contact allowed per attempt (3.5). For a running back as elusive as Jeanty, that could spell trouble for UNLV. 

Predictions

Dalton: Boise State 41, UNLV 38

This games the makings of a classic. Jeanty and a Boise State pass rush that leads the FBS in sacks makes the difference in a game that should come down to the wire.

Max: UNLV 34, Boise State 31

This game could turn into a shootout. I’ll give UNLV the slight advantage since it’s at home and has the better defense and the better quarterback. The Rebels win in a close one and become the new favorite in the Mountain West.

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No. 12 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. No. 24 Navy Midshipmen (12 PM ET on ABC)

Storyline to know: How legit are these military academies?

Both Navy and Army have become legitimate Group of Five playoff contenders, as they’re both undefeated through the first half of the season. It’s the first time since 1960 that both the Midshipmen and the Black Knights are ranked in the same AP poll. 

While the two have proven to be among the Group of Five’s elite, it’s time to see how they stack up against a top-15 team like the Fighting Irish. Navy will be the first to take on Notre Dame at MetLife Stadium before Army faces the Fighting Irish on November 23rd at Yankee Stadium. Notre Dame likely can’t afford another loss if it wants to make the College Football Playoff after losing to Northern Illinois in Week 2.

Matchup to watch when Navy has the ball (Dalton): Navy’s surprising passing attack vs. Notre Dame’s elite coverage unit

As an academy school, Navy is famous for its traditional use of the triple option-based offense. Most years, the Midshipmen would line up in a double-wing set on most of their plays and run through opposing defenses until they simply could not anymore.

However, what has made the Midshipmen offense produce at an elite level this season has been an effective passing attack that has rarely been seen in the school’s history. They excel at using motion and deception to create deep opportunities through the air. They’ve even tinkered with their formations since Brian Newberry started his head coaching tenure in 2023. Navy has run over 44% of its plays from the shotgun since the start of last season.

Quarterback Blake Horvath is having an excellent season. He leads all quarterbacks with a 92.9 rushing grade and has earned a solid 78.3 passing grade that sits in a neighborhood with players like Miller Moss and Will Howard. He has already thrown 10 touchdowns this season. The program record is 13, which he will easily break at his current pace. 

Logically, Horvath has been one of the best play-action passers in the nation, posting an elite 91.2 play-action passing grade. Because of this, opponents have cumulatively racked up a 37.3 coverage grade against Navy. Notre Dame is no normal opponent in coverage, though, as the Fighting Irish currently rank fourth in the FBS in coverage grade. However, the Fighting Irish rank just 41st in coverage grade against play action, so there could be an opportunity for Navy to succeed.

Lastly, we have to highlight Navy’s primary receiving threat, Eli Heidenreich. He’s traditionally a wingback, but he moves all over the formation and his versatility as a blocker, option back, and receiver is arguably the most dangerous part of this offense.

Heidenreich currently trails only Harold Fannin Jr. with an unreal 97.0 receiving grade. He’s been a big play machine and since the start of last season, he’s earned a 99.2 receiving grade on 10-plus yard targets.

Notre Dame’s focus will primarily be on the run game, but Navy’s combination of talent and scheme make them a serious threat through the air.

Matchup to watch when Notre Dame has the ball (Max): Can Navy force Riley Leonard to beat them through the air?

The bread-and-butter of Notre Dame’s offense is its run game. The Fighting Irish are seventh in EPA per run, 10th in rushing grade and 26th in run-blocking grade. As a team, Notre Dame is third in the FBS in yards after contact per attempt (4.3). Jeremiyah Love has the second-best forced missed tackle rate in the FBS (45%) while Riley Leonard is third among Power Four quarterbacks in rushing yards (474).

While Leonard is very effective with his legs, he’s not nearly as efficient with his arm. The Duke transfer is 99th in passing grade (64.3) and currently has more turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws. Leonard isn’t the only thing wrong with the Fighting Irish’s passing game either. Notre Dame is currently 93rd in the FBS in pass-blocking grade and 64th in receiving grade. 

Navy’s run defense has been just average this year, placing 67th in yards per attempt allowed (4.8) and 61st in EPA per run allowed. If the Midshipmen want to have a chance at an upset, they can’t be run over by the Fighting Irish. 

Predictions

Dalton: Notre Dame 24, Navy 20

Notre Dame needs to establish its physical dominance early in the game. Navy has legitimate talent and will give the Fighting Irish a fight until the very end.

Max: Notre Dame 31, Navy 21

Both teams could have issues stopping the run in this game, but Notre Dame’s defense will figure it out down the stretch to pull off the victory.

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No. 20 Illinois Fighting Illini at No. 1 Oregon Ducks (3:30 PM ET on CBS)

Storyline to know: The only currently-ranked team Oregon has left on the schedule

The Ducks have the best chance of any FBS team to finish the regular season with an undefeated record. Oregon has a projected win total of 11.3 according to PFF’s power rankings, the highest of any team in the nation. 

This week against Illinois is currently the only top 25 team that the Ducks have remaining. While the remaining schedule isn’t a cakewalk by any means, it’s still unlikely that Oregon will face another ranked team until the Big Ten Championship Game.

Matchup to watch when Illinois has the ball (Dalton): Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin vs. Oregon’s cornerbacks

Illinois has improved across the board offensively this season. The Fighting Illini's offensive line has been in the spotlight early in the season, but they also managed to replace their top two receivers from last season with two players performing even better.

Pat Bryant, who was the team’s third-leading receiver last season, leads the team with 484 yards, seven touchdowns and a 79.1 receiving grade. Standing at 6-foot-3, Bryant has become one of the nation’s premier vertical threats, as he’s earned an outstanding 98.3 deep receiving grade this season.

Ole Miss transfer Zakhari Franklin has been excellent this season as well after an injury-marred 2023. Franklin is a smooth route runner who excels at moving the chains. His 97.4 intermediate receiving grade is currently the fifth-best among qualified FBS wide receivers.

Together, Bryant and Franklin are the core of the team’s passing game. Their ability to win on the perimeter has Illinois tied for 13th in the nation in receiving grade from their outside receivers. That creates an interesting matchup with Oregon’s group of outside cornerbacks, including star transfer Jabbar Muhammad, who ranks 12th in the nation in coverage grade.

Matchup to watch when Oregon has the ball (Max): Can Illinois get after Dillon Gabriel?

Dillon Gabriel has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the country, especially when he has time to work from the pocket. He’s far less effective when defenses try to speed him up though. He’s fourth among all FBS signal-callers in passing grade when he isn’t blitzed (91.8), while placing just 70th in passing grade when he is blitzed (67.6).

Illinois blitzes on 42.1% of passing plays, the 33rd-highest rate in the country. The Fighting Illini must get home on Gabriel to take some of the pressure off its secondary. They have played man coverage on the sixth-most snaps in the FBS, which leaves their defensive backs on an island against Oregon’s uber-talented pass-catchers. Gabriel’s 139.2 passer rating against man coverage is the third-best in the nation as well. 

Predictions

Dalton: Oregon 34, Illinois 24

Illinois is much improved and its blitzes have a chance to rattle Dillon Gabriel, but the Fighting Illini aren’t ready to win a road game of this caliber.

Max: Oregon 38, Illinois 17

Dillon Gabriel and Jordan James light up Illinois’ defense while Luke Altmyer struggles to get much going against Oregon’s defense. The Ducks look like the No. 1 team in the country with a convincing victory over a top-20 team.

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No. 21 Missouri Tigers at No. 15 Alabama Crimson Tide (3:30 PM ET on ABC)

Storyline to know: The loser of this game sees its playoff hopes evaporate

Just like Boise State–UNLV, this matchup also serves as a pseudo-elimination game for the College Football Playoff. 

Alabama was served its second loss in three games this past weekend against Tennessee. Since it’s highly unlikely that a three-loss team can get into the 12-team field, the Crimson Tide cannot afford to lose another game the rest of the season. While Missouri only has one loss, the Tigers were blown out by Texas A&M and needed an 11-point comeback to beat Auburn this past week, who’s currently 2-5. Alabama will likely be the only top-25 team Missouri plays the rest of the year, so the Tigers need to take advantage of this opportunity to impress the committee. 

Matchup to watch when Alabama has the ball (Dalton): Will Jalen Milroe find deep passing success after struggling over the past two weeks?

We’ve seen enough of Jalen Milroe now that the formula to beat him is clear — prevent him from completing deep passes by any means necessary. 

Several opponents over the past season and a half have blitzed Milroe in an effort to force him to throw short passes. Some teams sit back in coverage with spies on Milroe so that he must take short throws the defense gives him. Either way, Milroe’s dependence on the deep ball is the top concern for opposing defenses.

After struggling against two elite defenses in South Carolina and Tennessee, Milroe has a chance to bounce back against a Missouri team that hasn’t excelled in coverage lately. This season, Missouri ranks 84th in coverage grade against 20-plus yard throws. That number drops to 120th if we exclude their first two games against Murray State and Buffalo. The Tigers haven’t seen a high volume of deep passes in their direction, but they have shown some mental lapses of late that resulted in game-changing plays.

Prior to the South Carolina game, Milroe had posted a 91.7 passing grade on deep passes. Against South Carolina and Tennessee, he completed just one of his eight deep passes while earning a 46.9 passing grade on those throws. 

Matchup to watch when Missouri has the ball (Max): Will a hobbled Brady Cook be able to make plays on Alabama’s defense?

Cook was heroic in Missouri’s comeback win over Auburn this past weekend. He injured his ankle in the first quarter against the Tigers and needed to go to the hospital to get an MRI. He amazingly returned in the third quarter to lead Mizzou on a comeback victory. 

Even when healthy, Cook and Missouri’s passing game has taken an unexpected step back. The Tigers are just 53rd in EPA per pass after placing 10th last season, despite returning Cook and their top-five receivers. The fifth-year senior is just 86th among FBS quarterbacks with a 70.0 passing grade while Missouri is just 91st in team receiving grade. 

Alabama’s defense has been vulnerable at times to opposing passing attacks, placing 42nd in EPA per pass and 46th in coverage grade (86.2). The Crimson Tide’s two worst games in coverage have come in their two losses to Vanderbilt and Tennessee, pointing to this as an area Missouri must exploit to pull off the upset. 

Predictions

Dalton: Alabama 28, Missouri 20

This is a matchup between two teams that have not executed particularly well this season. There has to be more trust in Jalen Milroe than in Brady Cook despite Milroe’s recent struggles. The Crimson Tide gets a home win while Missouri is effectively eliminated from playoff contention.

Max: Alabama 34, Missouri 21

Milroe is able to bounce back after an uninspiring last two games and leads the Crimson Tide to victory.

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No. 5 Texas Longhorns at No. 25 Vanderbilt Commodores (4:15 PM ET on SEC Network)

Storyline to know: Vanderbilt’s first game as a top-25 team in over a decade

While most of the attention in this game will be on Texas and how it responds to its loss against Georgia, it’s important to recognize the special season Vanderbilt is currently having. 

The Commodores are in the top 25 for the first time in 11 years, back when James Franklin was coaching them. Vandy’s 5-2 start is its best since the 2008 season. For a program whose preseason win total was set at just 2.5, it’s safe to say that Vanderbilt has been one of the biggest surprises in college football. After upsetting No. 1 Alabama at home three weeks ago, the Commodores will try to do the same this week against the fifth-ranked Longhorns.

Matchup to watch when Vanderbilt has the ball (Dalton): Can Vanderbilt control the clock against the nation’s top-graded defense?

Two things stick out when examining Vanderbilt’s offense this season — they control the clock at an elite level, and Diego Pavia is really good in late-down situations.

Vanderbilt has won all five games where it won the time of possession battle. The Commodores have lost the two games where they haven’t. So far this season, they have the 11th-highest average time of possession in the country. Pavia’s ability to extend drives by any means necessary has become the hallmark of their offense.

Diego Pavia on third/fourth down:

Pavia has been spectacular when his team needs him the most. He extends drives with his arm and his legs. Similar splits to the team’s time of possession numbers occur, though, as it relates to Pavia’s late down performance. In the team’s five wins, Pavia earned a 92.4 overall grade on third and fourth down. In their two losses, that figure plummets to 61.0.

Texas should be up for the challenge. In addition to being the highest-graded defense in the country, the Longhorns own the third-highest defensive grade on late downs, trailing only Notre Dame in EPA per play allowed on third and fourth down.

Matchup to watch when Texas has the ball (Max): How short is Quinn Ewers’ leash?

Quinn Ewers has looked like a shell of himself since returning from his abdominal strain two weeks ago. He posted a 54.9 grade in the win over Oklahoma, his worst since Week 3 of last season. He followed that up with a career-low 40.2 grade in the loss to Georgia. The redshirt junior’s six turnover-worthy plays in that game were tied for the most by a Power Four quarterback over the last four seasons. His 44.0 PFF grade over the last couple weeks is the ninth-worst among all FBS signal-callers.

What’s increasing the pressure on Ewers is the fact that Texas has the best backup in the country breathing down his neck. Arch Manning’s 88.7 grade this year is a top-20 mark in the country and nearly 25 points higher than Ewers’ 63.9 mark this season. Head coach Steve Sarkisian even benched Ewers in the second quarter of that Georgia game to give Manning a shot before re-inserting Ewers in the second half, showing he’s not afraid of pulling Ewers if he struggles.

Sarkisian said this week that Ewers is still their starting quarterback. There’s an opportunity for Ewers to bounce back this week as Vanderbilt’s 70.9 defensive grade on passing plays is just 88th in the nation. If he still comes out sluggish against the Commodores though, it’d be almost impossible to leave Manning on the sidelines. 

Predictions

Dalton: Texas 30, Vanderbilt 24

Playing at Vanderbilt is a tough assignment nowadays. The Commodores give the Longhorns issues early, but the Longhorns defense makes the difference. This could tilt in the Commodores’ direction, though, if Ewers continues to struggle.

Max: Texas 38, Vanderbilt 17

Ewers staves off Manning for at least another week with a strong performance against Vanderbilt while Diego Pavia struggles to get much going against Texas’ suffocating pass defense. Unfortunately for the Commodores, their time as a ranked team ends after just one game.

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No. 8 LSU Tigers at No. 14 Texas A&M Aggies (7:30 PM ET on ABC)

Storyline to know: The winner of this game has an inside track to the SEC Championship Game

While LSU and Texas A&M are the fourth-and-fifth-highest-ranked teams in the SEC, this game is still massive in determining who could be playing in Atlanta for the conference championship. 

The Tigers and Aggies are the only teams in the SEC with undefeated records in conference play, making the winner of this matchup take sole possession of first place in the conference with five weeks remaining. 

Matchup to watch when LSU has the ball (Dalton): LSU’s offensive line vs. Texas A&M’s defensive line

Star units collide as Will Campbell and LSU’s excellent offensive line battle with Nic Scourton and Texas A&M’s formidable defensive line.

LSU has been excellent in pass protection this year, as the Tigers were in 2023. Garrett Nussmeier is a true pocket quarterback who has been able to excel because he has only been under pressure on 22.6% of his dropbacks, the 17th-lowest mark among qualified quarterbacks.

Texas A&M’s defensive line has had a terrific season as well, ranking 16th in the nation in overall grade. However, the Aggies have excelled more in the run game than as pass-rushers. As a unit, it ranks fourth in run-defense grade and just 50th in pass-rush grade, though it has started to generate a bit more pressure in the team’s last three games. They also rank just 63rd in pass rush win rate.

If LSU wins the battle in pass protection, Nussmeier will have the requisite time to work within the pocket, which is dangerous considering his prowess in throwing down the middle of the field where the Aggies struggle to defend. Disrupting Nussmeier’s rhythm will be paramount to Texas A&M’s success.

Matchup to watch when Texas A&M has the ball (Max): LSU’s improved pass defense against the most perplexing quarterback in college football

LSU had the best offense in college football last season with first-round picks like Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. leading the way. The reason why the Tigers lost three games instead of competing for a national title was because of their putrid defense. LSU was 114th in EPA per pass allowed and gave up 28 points per game on average. 

While still below average, the Tigers are now 74th in EPA per pass allowed and give up 20.6 points per game. One of the biggest reasons for the improvement is how dominant LSU’s pass rush has been, even without star Harold Perkins. The Tigers have generated a pressure on 40.8% of opposing dropbacks, the seventh-best rate in the country. 

In most cases, increasing the pressure on a quarterback decreases their performance. Instead of having time in the pocket to scan the field, find an open receiver and deliver a throw from a stable platform, the signal-caller has to rush his progressions and throw off-platform or tuck and run for his life. Texas A&M’s Conner Weigman is apparently most comfortable in uncomfortable situations, and vice versa. His 81.0 PFF grade under pressure this year is fourth among FBS quarterbacks this year. When he’s kept clean, that figure falls to a 56.3 mark, the third-worst in America and worst in the Power Four. 

It’s incredibly rare for a quarterback’s grade under pressure to be higher than when he’s kept clean, let alone 25 points higher.

Predictions

Dalton: LSU 27, Texas A&M 24

LSU’s defense has been better lately, and it’s easier to trust Garrett Nussmeier rather than Conner Weigman in a big spot right now. Tigers escape Kyle Field with a win.

Max: LSU 28, Texas A&M 27

In a game that comes down to the wire, Garrett Nussmeier makes enough big throws to give the Tigers first place in the SEC.

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No. 3 Penn State Nittany Lions at Wisconsin Badgers (7:30 PM ET on NBC)

Storyline to know: Will Wisconsin catch Penn State looking ahead?

The Nittany Lions are currently the No. 3 team in the country, their highest ranking in seven years. Their toughest test of the entire season comes next week against fourth-ranked Ohio State in what’s easily the biggest game of the weekend. 

Penn State first must take care of business on the road against Wisconsin, who’s won three in a row and is arguably a top-30 team in the country.

Matchup to watch when Wisconsin has the ball (Dalton): Wisconsin’s offensive line vs. Penn State’s pass rush

As is fitting for Wisconsin football, the Badgers offensive line has been their greatest asset this season. Their ability to protect sophomore quarterback Braedyn Locke has given the Badgers a chance to succeed, especially during their three-game winning streak. 

Wisconsin currently ranks sixth in the nation in pass-blocking grade and has allowed the ninth-lowest pressure percentage. That’s not been the product of a soft schedule either, as the Badgers have faced three teams inside the current top 30 in pass rush grade — Alabama, Northwestern and Rutgers. Their offensive line has been charged with just two sacks during their three-game winning streak.

The Badgers’ excellent pass protection matters for two reasons in this game. The first is that Locke has been solid in a clean pocket, earning a 79.4 passing grade. Under pressure, though, he has crumbled. His 27.5 passing grade when pressured is the fourth-worst among 158 qualified quarterbacks. He’s committed five turnover-worthy plays without a big-time throw under pressure.

The second reason pass protection is so crucial is that Penn State possesses an elite pass rush unit, led by edge defender Abdul Carter and defensive tackle Zayne Durant. The Nittany Lions currently rank inside the top seven in the FBS in pass-rush grade, pressure percentage and pass-rush win rate.

Wisconsin already has enough trouble creating big plays through the air, but it'll find that task impossible if it can’t hold up against Penn State’s lethal pass rush.

Matchup to watch when Penn State has the ball (Max): Can Wisconsin’s secondary take away Tyler Warren?

Tyler Warren has been easily the best tight end in the Power Four this season. He leads them all in receiving grade (91.6), receiving yards (513), yards per route run (3.38) and is tied for first in receiving touchdowns (four). As if that’s not enough, he also has a rushing touchdown and a passing touchdown this season. Outside of Warren, Penn State’s receiving corps has been just above average, placing 41st in receiving grade by wide receivers (71.2). 

Wisconsin’s secondary has been the clear strength of the defense, placing eighth among FBS teams in coverage grade (91.5). The Badgers are also 20th in coverage grade when tight ends are targeted, earning a 76.4 mark in that department. They haven’t allowed a tight end to even post 50 receiving yards in any game this season. It’s fair to say that Wisconsin hasn’t faced a tight end who’s the caliber of Warren though, so players like linebacker Jaheim Thomas and safety Hunter Wohler need to step up.

Predictions

Dalton: Penn State 24, Wisconsin 13

Wisconsin’s defense can keep the Badgers in this game, especially if Penn State gets off to another slow start. Penn State’s pass rush and offensive balance make the difference in a physical matchup.

Max: Penn State 33, Wisconsin 17

The Nittany Lions take care of business on the road and set up a colossal matchup against Ohio State next week.

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No. 22 SMU Mustangs at Duke Blue Devils (8 PM ET on ACC Network)

Storyline to know: An important bar to clear for SMU to keep its hopes of an ACC Championship Game alive

SMU is one of four teams in the ACC with a perfect conference record this season, joining Clemson, Miami (FL) and Pittsburgh. Since the Tigers and the Hurricanes are top-10 teams and don’t face each other in the regular season, it’s more than possible that those two finish with an undefeated record in the ACC.

The next two weeks are critical for the Mustangs to keep up with them and possibly force the conference championship participants to come down to tiebreakers. SMU travels to Duke this week before taking on No. 19 Pittsburgh at home next weekend. The Blue Devils have their first 6-1 start in nine years and have their sights set on competing for a conference title, although their chances are less likely since they still must take on Miami next week.

Matchup to watch when SMU has the ball (Dalton): Kevin Jennings vs. Manny Diaz/Jonathan Patke

There was some controversy surrounding SMU’s quarterback situation early this season after Preston Stone had such a brilliant 2023 before suffering a season-ending injury. Kevin Jennings won a conference title in his stead, setting up a competition for the starting job this year.

Throughout the team’s first three games, including their lone loss to BYU, the Mustangs rotated Stone and Jennings, but that was disrupting the rhythm of their offense, in part because they are two vastly different players. After the loss to BYU, they committed to Jennings as the starter and the payoff has been tremendous.

Kevin Jennings' passing grades since Week 4:

Like Stone last year, Jennings has suddenly emerged as one of the best quarterbacks in the country. He’s been on fire as a passer, yet his athleticism is making the biggest difference for the Mustangs. Opposing defenses have had trouble getting to Jennings. He is a tremendous dual threat when he breaks the pocket.

Duke likely stands a better chance if it can find a way to make Jennings beat its pass defense from the pocket. The interesting part is whether head coach Manny Diaz and defensive coordinator Jonathan Patke choose to stick with their aggressive nature. The Blue Devils blitz opposing passers at the ninth-highest rate in the Power Five.

There will also be serious challenges stopping a potent rushing attack that uses the threat of Jennings’ legs well. He is currently averaging 5.7 yards per designed carry. Defenses have to be constantly aware of him as a read-option threat as well as a passing threat in SMU’s bootleg packages.

Any offense is almost always built around the ability of its quarterback. SMU’s commitment to Jennings' dual-threat abilities has made the Mustangs an ACC contender. Duke will need to find an answer that the Mustangs’ previous opponents couldn’t.

Matchup to watch when Duke has the ball (Max): SMU’s pass rush against Duke’s offensive line

This promises to be a heavyweight battle in the trenches. Duke’s offensive line has been outstanding at protecting Maalik Murphy this season, allowing the lowest pressure rate in college football (16.9%). The Blue Devils have only surrendered nine knockdowns all year (sacks/hits), trailing only Army in the FBS who runs the ball 90% of the time. Meanwhile, SMU is fourth in the FBS with a 42.3% pressure rate and is 21st in pass-rushing grade (78.1).

This matchup becomes even more critical when considering how poorly Maalik Murphy has performed on the rare occasions when he has been under pressure this season. The Texas transfer is 99th among the nation’s quarterbacks with a 40.8 PFF grade under pressure, while his grade nearly doubles when kept clean (79.8). He often struggles with accuracy which is amplified even more when defenders are breathing down his neck.

Predictions

Dalton: SMU 31, Duke 20

Kevin Jennings and Brashard Smith are too much to handle for a solid Blue Devils defense. Duke has made a habit of winning tight, low-scoring games, but that won’t be the case this week.

Max: SMU 27, Duke 23

Both defenses hold the opposing passing games in check for the most part, but Kevin Jennings is able to do just enough to lead the Mustangs to a major victory on the road.

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Cincinnati Bearcats at Colorado Buffaloes (10:15 PM EST on ESPN)

Storyline to know: Two Big 12 teams looking to stay alive in a wide-open conference

There are five teams in the Big 12 with at least a 7% chance of winning the conference according to PFF’s power rankings. Colorado and Cincinnati comprise two of them. The only other Power conference with that many teams with at least a 7% chance to win it is the SEC. 

The winner of this game stays in the thick of the Big 12 championship race, while the loser will likely have a lot of difficulty reaching the title game with two conference losses already. 

Matchup to watch when Colorado has the ball (Dalton): Can the Bearcats stick to their usual defensive plan against Colorado’s elite passing attack?

Cincinnati made a big change this past offseason when it hired Tyson Veidt as its defensive coordinator. As a disciple of Matt Campbell at Iowa State, Veidt has brought over an unorthodox defense that heavily prioritizes coverage over pass rush.

The foundation of that defense is a stout three-man defensive line that presses blockers between the tackles while eight athletic players behind them make tackles in space and limit big plays.

We know by now that in order to beat Shedeur Sanders and the Buffaloes, a productive pass rush is a necessity. Cincinnati currently ranks 63rd in the FBS in pass-rush grade with most of that production coming against FCS-level Towson and Group of Five opponent Miami (OH).

It’s not that their players aren’t talented so much as it is a choice that they make on defense. The Bearcats currently run the third-lowest pass blitz rate in the FBS and have run the most plays in the nation dropping eight players into coverage. Meanwhile, Sanders owns a 92.0 overall grade when not blitzed this season, the third-best mark in the country.

The matchup on this side of the ball comes down to a handful of things. First is Sanders’ ability to make intermediate throws in the 10-19 yard range where the Bearcats have struggled to defend. Second will be how Cincinnati will handle heavy exposure to dynamic slot weapons like LaJohntay Wester and Jimmy Horn Jr. Lastly, the Bearcats, in part due to their light pass rush tendencies, have had issues when opposing quarterbacks are able to break the pocket and improvise with so much time to work with.

Colorado lost a game already to a light-blitzing team in Kansas State, but Cincinnati brings pressure even less often. Giving Sanders a plethora of time to work with behind an often suspect offensive line could hurt the Bearcats’ chances for success.

Matchup to watch when Cincinnati has the ball (Max): Can Colorado’s pass rush keep this up?

Colorado’s pass rush has been the biggest weakness of the defense so far this season, placing just 104th in team pass-rushing grade (64.7). That all changed last week against Arizona, who entered the game with the 16th-best pass-blocking grade in the country. In that game, the Buffaloes sacked Noah Fifita seven times while pressuring him on 52.8% of his dropbacks. 

If Colorado can be that effective rushing the passer this week, it should have a lot of success against Cincinnati. Brendan Sorsby has performed well when he’s not under pressure, placing 22nd among FBS quarterbacks with a 90.2 passing grade when kept clean. He’s far worse under pressure, posting a 48.1 passer rating in those situations (80th).

The Bearcats have been pretty solid in protecting Sorsby this year, ranking 35th in pass-blocking grade as a team (75.8). If they’re able to give him time, he should be able to find Cincinnati’s talented stable of pass-catchers (17th best receiving grade in the country).

Predictions

Dalton: Colorado 31, Cincinnati 24

The Bearcats certainly stand a chance if they can lean on Corey Kiner to control the clock and find some way to disturb Shedeur Sanders in the pocket. Sanders is, by far, the best quarterback they’ve faced, though, and they’ve already lost games to Eli Holstein and Behren Morton. Sanders finds enough points in a Colorado victory.

Max: Colorado 33, Cincinnati 28

In what could end up being a high-scoring game, Shedeur Sanders leads the Buffaloes to victory.