• Ohio State–Oregon: The Buckeyes and Ducks meet in the first matchup between top-three teams this season.
• Texas–Oklahoma: The first SEC version of the Red River Rivalry marks Quinn Ewers’ return from injury.
• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all of our in-season fantasy tools, including weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer and more. Sign up now!
Estimated Reading Time: 29 minutes
While Week 6 featured a light slate on paper, it still produced madness. Five of the top-11 teams lost, four to unranked opponents. We don’t have to worry about a “weak” slate in Week 7. In fact, the schedule is so good that we’re previewing eight games for the first time all season.
Here are the storylines to know, matchups to watch and predictions for eight of the biggest games this weekend.
No. 16 Utah Utes at Arizona State Sun Devils (Friday, 10:30 PM EST on ESPN)
Storyline to know: Cameron Rising's health
The story of Utah’s 2024 season is mirroring what it was in 2023: not knowing whether quarterback Cameron Rising will be available. Last year, the sixth-year senior was “50-50” to play Week 1 according to head coach Kyle Whittingham due to a torn ACL, MCL, MPFL and meniscus suffered in January of the prior season. He ended up sitting out the entire season.
This year, a dislocated finger on his throwing hand has kept him out of the last three contests. That’s even though he’s continuously entered each week with a questionable designation and even dressed/warmed up pregame. With the Utes coming off a bye week, there’s some optimism he’ll be ready for this game. But with Utah being so tight-lipped about his availability these last two years, it’s hard to believe anything until you see Rising on the field.
Matchup to watch when Utah has the ball (Dalton): Micah Bernard vs. Arizona State’s run defense
This game is bound to be physical and that’s the way both teams like it. Utah’s Micah Bernard has been carrying the team through its quarterback uncertainty by bulldozing opposing defenses. He ranks inside the top 15 running backs in the nation in yards after contact and forced missed tackles.
The Sun Devils, meanwhile, have greatly improved their run defense across the board.
| Metric | 2023 | 2024 |
| Run-Defense Grade | 68.4 | 84.8 |
| EPA/Rush Allowed | -0.022 | -0.115 |
| Yards per carry allowed | 5.1 | 3.8 |
| Yards after contact per attempt | 3.2 | 2.4 |
Arizona State doesn’t run many complex schemes. The Sun Devils play fast, hit hard, swarm to the football, have done a better job of disallowing yards after contact this season and have gotten contributions from every level of their defense.
Slot cornerback Shamari Simmons leads the team with an 86.9 run-defense grade. Defensive tackle C.J. Fite has the most run stops with 10. Linebacker Keyshaun Elliott excels at shedding blocks and flies to the football at all times.
Arizona defeated Utah by holding Bernard to his fewest yards after contact since Week 1 and did not allow him a single 15-plus yard run. Arizona State hasn’t allowed more than two such runs in a game this season. If the Sun Devils' upward trends in run defense continue, especially if Isaac Wilson is Utah’s quarterback in this game, they will prove a difficult challenge for the Utes’ offense.
Matchup to watch when Arizona State has the ball (Max): Can Cameron Skattebo carry the Sun Devils to victory?
Skattebo is the engine of Arizona State’s offense. His 616 rushing yards are the sixth-most in America so far while his 43 rushing first downs/touchdowns lead the nation. His 209 receiving yards are also the third-most among FBS running backs. He’s doing all of this on an offense that is just 81st in run-blocking grade and owns the Power Four’s worst receiving grade as a team.
Utah’s run defense has been pretty average this season, placing 60th in yards per attempt allowed (4.6) and 102nd in rate of 10-plus yard runs allowed (17.5%). The Utes have a top-25 run-defense grade against zone runs but are just 107th against a gap scheme. Skattebo currently leads all Power Four backs with an 87.6 rushing grade on gap runs, so he could present some major issues for Utah.
Predictions
Dalton: Arizona State 20, Utah 17
The Sun Devils can match Utah’s physicality. The margin of error is small, but they have the best defense that Utah has played this season. They pull off an ugly upset at home.
Max: Utah 24, Arizona State 21
If Isaac Wilson is still starting for Utah, the Sun Devils have an excellent chance at winning this game. I’ll ride with Utah in a close one since Rising’s status is still up in the air.
No. 1 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 18 Oklahoma Sooners (3:30 PM EST on ABC)
Storyline to know: How does Texas handle Quinn Ewers' return?
Texas star quarterback Quinn Ewers should be back this week after suffering an abdominal strain against UTSA a month ago. His backup, Arch Manning, performed at an elite level in his absence and is currently seventh among FBS signal-callers with a 90.4 grade this season.
Ewers is almost assuredly the starter when healthy, but Manning’s performance had many wondering if there could be a quick hook for the redshirt junior if he doesn’t perform well against a very good Oklahoma defense.
Matchup to watch when Oklahoma has the ball (Dalton): Michael Hawkins Jr. vs. the nation’s leading coverage unit
Oklahoma ranks inside the bottom 20 in the Power Five in passing grade, pass blocking grade, and receiving grade. Only six teams in the Power Five are throwing for fewer yards per game.
During their game versus Tennessee, the Sooners turned to freshman Michael Hawkins Jr. at quarterback. While he adds more of a punch on the ground than former starter Jackson Arnold, Oklahoma hasn’t gained much traction through the air. Hawkins threw just 15 passes two weeks ago against Auburn, and seven of them were screens.
Meanwhile, Texas is leading the country in coverage grade and only Minnesota is allowing fewer passing yards per game. The Longhorns' secondary was their Achilles heel last season, but it has vastly improved with the development of incumbent players like Jahdae Barron and Michael Taaffe. Clemson transfer Andrew Mukuba has done a terrific job holding the unit together at safety.
Texas has specifically improved when defending vertical throws. Last season, the Longhorns ranked ninth-worst in coverage grade against 10-plus yard throws. This year, they own the seventh-best grade in that same metric. Oklahoma has completed just 20 passes this season that have traveled at least 10 air yards, which is the 10th-fewest in the Power Five.
The Sooners are going to need substantial improvement in the passing game to challenge a Texas secondary that has remedied its issues from a year ago.
Matchup to watch when Texas has the ball (Max): Can Oklahoma consistently generate pressure?
Whether it’s Ewers or Manning under center for the Longhorns, the Sooners need to speed them up. Oklahoma’s front seven is easily the strength of its defense, placing seventh in the nation in grade as a unit. The Sooners are currently seventh in pass-rushing grade and 11th in run-defense grade this season. However, Oklahoma is just average in the secondary, placing 66th in coverage grade this year.
That’s an issue against a Texas team with not one, but two elite passers with one of the best receiving corps in college football. So far this year, the Longhorns are seventh in receiving grade (82.1). If Ewers has time in the pocket, he’s going to find players like Isaiah Bond and Ryan Wingo down the field.
Oklahoma is going to need to get after Ewers to have a chance at pulling off the upset. The problem is that Texas leads the country with a 92.4 pass-blocking grade. The Longhorns’ two tackles, Kelvin Banks Jr. and Cameron Williams, are top-20 prospects on PFF’s 2025 NFL Draft big board. Another issue for the Sooners is that Ewers is third in America with an 86.4 passing grade under pressure this year. Statistics under pressure are very volatile though, so Oklahoma still needs to be aggressive.
Predictions
Texas is currently the top-ranked team in the country for good reason. They have enough misdirection in their offense to bother a good Oklahoma defense. Oklahoma has struggled all year to score. The Longhorns take care of business.
The difference in this game is the passing games. Texas has one of the best aerial attacks in the country while Oklahoma’s has really struggled. With the Longhorns’ pass defense also playing lights out, the Sooners’ only chance is to make this as low-scoring as possible.
No. 4 Penn State Nittany Lions at USC Trojans (3:30 PM EST on CBS)
Storyline to know: Will a cross-country road trip hurt Penn State like it has for others?
Realignment has made conferences span the entire country instead of specific regions like it was before. As such, some schools are being forced to travel three time zones just for conference games.
We’ve seen this affect top teams, as recently as this weekend. Then-No. 10 Michigan lost to unranked Washington after traveling more than 2,300 miles to Seattle. One of the teams in this game, then-No. 11 USC, lost to Minnesota after traveling more than 1,900 miles to Minneapolis. No. 8 Miami (FL) traveled more than 3,000 miles to California and needed a 25-point comeback to escape an upset from the Golden Bears.
Penn State is traveling across three time zones and nearly 2,600 miles to Los Angeles to take on USC in arguably its most difficult game outside of when it hosts Ohio State on November 2nd.
Matchup to watch when Penn State has the ball (Dalton): Can USC find a way to disrupt Drew Allar’s rhythm?
Though he may not be the highest-volume passer in college football, Drew Allar has had an excellent season in his first year running Andy Kotelnicki’s offense. He’s been more accurate with his passes, displayed an improved deep ball and looks more comfortable under duress.
That last part could be the greatest variable for USC’s defense in this game. The Trojans defense is much improved from last season, but their pass rush has continued to be a weakness. They’ve racked up just six sacks this season and rank 92nd in pass-rush grade. Only four teams own a lower pressure rate in the Power Five despite USC blitzing more than almost any team in the nation.
Allar has been one of the best rhythm passers in the country. When in rhythm, Allar has recorded a 91.6 passing grade, the 12th-best mark in the nation. He also owns a top-five completion percentage in such situations at 74.7%.
Even if USC does manage to pressure Allar, he’s handled it well so far. He currently ranks second in the nation with an 81.7 overall grade under pressure. He’s shown improved confidence in his pocket movement and has occasionally been willing to scramble for yardage when needed. The Trojans will not only need to find pressure to succeed on defense, they need to find a way to disturb Allar in the process. So far this season, Allar has been unfazed.
Matchup to watch when USC has the ball (Max): USC’s offensive line against Penn State’s defensive line
USC’s front five has struggled mightily this year. Among Power Four offensive lines, the Trojans have the third-worst overall grade (56.4). USC also owns the second-worst pass-blocking grade and fifth-worst run-blocking grade in the Power Four. While the interior is below-average, the Trojans’ have really struggled at offensive tackle with Mason Murphy and Elijah Paige. As a group, USC’s tackles are the lowest-graded in the Power Four with the worst pass-blocking grade. They’ve allowed a sack/hit on 7.2% of their pass-blocking snaps, also the worst mark in the Power Four.
That could present major problems for the Trojans as Penn State’s front seven is the best part of its team. The Nittany Lions are one of five teams in the nation that possess top-10 grades both in run defense (seventh) and pass rush (fifth). Even worse for USC, Penn State has a couple future draft picks along the edge in Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton. Carter is a projected top-15 pick and has a 23.2% pressure rate in the last two games.
Miller Moss is likely going to need to get the ball out at lightning speed to even have a chance at being effective.
Predictions
Dalton: Penn State 27, USC 17
USC needs to protect the passer and the football far better than it has recently if it is going to win this game. Penn State’s defensive line should be the dominant unit in this game. The Nittany Lions get a big road win.
Max: Penn State 28, USC 21
Penn State’s defensive line dominates and hands USC its third loss in four games, effectively ending the Trojans’ hopes of making the playoff.
Arizona Wildcats at No. 14 BYU Cougars (4 PM EST on FOX)
Storyline to know: Can BYU continue its incredible ascension?
BYU has the best resume in college football through six weeks, an improbable sentence when considering the Cougars’ expectations entering the year. BYU has already surpassed its preseason win total of 4.5 as it sports a perfect 5-0 record. The Cougars beat the current No. 18 team in the country, Kansas State, by 29 points and also took down SMU, who’s now No. 25 in the AP poll. BYU is the only team in the nation that’s beaten two teams who are currently in the top 25.
The Cougars look to continue climbing the rankings against an Arizona squad that’s a top-35 team in PFF’s power rankings.
Matchup to watch when Arizona has the ball (Dalton): Can Arizona find success on first down?
Arizona’s offense does not have the rhythm that it did last season. Their run game isn’t as dynamic. Noah Fifita’s average time to throw and average depth of target are way up. Tetairoa McMillan is the Wildcats' only consistently explosive playmaker. As the season progresses, though, these factors are most notable when looking at Arizona’s decreasing success on first-down plays.
Since Week 3, when Arizona started playing games against Power Four teams, the Wildcats rank 44th in the Power Four in offensive grade on first down. They also rank 59th in that span in first down EPA per play.
BYU has generally done a nice job of stifling opponents on first down. The Cougars rank 27th in the Power Four in defensive grade on first down. They’ve allowed the 15th-lowest EPA per play on first down among that same group. Perhaps most interesting is that the Cougars rank second in the nation in coverage grade on first down. Lately, Arizona has been throwing more on first down, but that may play into BYU’s hands.
Matchup to watch when BYU has the ball (Max): Can the run game take some of the pressure off of Jake Retzlaff?
One of the biggest reasons for BYU’s surprise season is the improvement by quarterback Jake Retzlaff. The redshirt junior has increased his PFF grade by more than 30 points, going from a 48.3 mark in 2023 to 79.8 this year. While he’s been much better, the Cougars have continued to struggle on the ground. BYU averages just 4.4 yards per attempt, the sixth-fewest in the Power Four.
Luckily for the Cougars, Arizona has had struggles defending the run this year. The Wildcats have given up an explosive run on 18.7% of attempts, just 114th in the country. Since Week 3, Arizona’s 58.0 run-defense grade is the worst mark in the Power Four. Most of their struggles have come against teams with an elite running back (Tahj Brooks) or quarterbacks with great mobility (Avery Johnson and Devon Dampier), something BYU doesn’t have.
Predictions
Fifita and McMillan are always a threat, but BYU has the better team. In a raucous environment, their defense carries them to a win.
The Wildcats have the better quarterback and BYU’s run game isn’t good enough to expose Arizona like others have this season. The Wildcats win in a close one and end BYU’s undefeated campaign.
No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes at No. 3 Oregon Ducks (7:30 PM EST on NBC)
Storyline to know: The biggest game of the year so far
With all due respect to Alabama–Georgia, Saturday night’s game between Ohio State and Oregon is the biggest of the first half of the 2024 season. That’s because it’s the first time that two top-three teams are squaring off, with the winner almost assuredly taking the top spot from Texas in next week’s ranking.
The winner of this matchup takes pole position for a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game while the loser has to battle teams like Penn State and Indiana for a spot by the end of the year.
Matchup to watch when Ohio State has the ball (Dalton): Ohio State’s run game vs. Oregon’s defensive line
If Oregon is going to win this game, the Ducks are going to have to find a way to slow down the nation’s best pair of running backs, Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson.
In typical Chip Kelly fashion, Ohio State has bludgeoned teams between the tackles with a heavy dose of zone runs. The Buckeyes currently possess the second-best offensive grade in the Power Four when rushing between the tackles. Their production isn’t solely a case of their elite runnings carrying them either.
The Buckeyes sit 13th in the FBS in run-blocking grade, and they lead the Power Four with 3.5 yards before contact per attempt. Their interior in particular — Donovan Jackson, Seth McLaughlin, and Tegra Tshabola — have been spectacular.
Oregon is currently tied for 8th in overall defensive grade, but the Ducks rank 58th in run-defense grade. Their defensive line has been the soft spot, as they currently rank 95th in the nation in run-defense grade. None of their defensive linemen currently hold a grade higher than 72.0 in run defense.
Players like Derrick Harmon and Jordan Burch have excelled when rushing the passer, but if they can’t keep Ohio State out of advantageous situations, then the Buckeyes will continue to run the ball as they have all season.
Matchup to watch when Oregon has the ball (Max): Can Oregon’s offensive line keep up this level of play against Ohio State’s elite front?
Oregon’s offensive line entered the year as a top-five unit in my ranking this offseason. During the first couple games against Idaho and Boise State though, the front five really struggled. Oregon’s 59.8 offensive line grade in the first couple weeks was the seventh-worst in the Power Four. Since then though, the Ducks have really figured it out up front. Since Week 3, their 75.8 offensive line grade is eighth in the Power Four.
They’ll be tested more than ever before this week against Ohio State. The Buckeyes have generated a sack/hit on 25% of opposing dropbacks, which leads the country. Their 6.4% explosive run rate allowed also leads all defenses in the nation.
The weakness of the Ducks’ offensive line is on the interior, while both of Ohio State’s defensive tackles (Ty Hamilton and Tyleik Williams) have 80-plus grades this season. If those two can create havoc for Dillon Gabriel and Jordan James, the Buckeyes have a great chance at pulling off the road win.
Predictions
Dalton: Ohio State 31, Oregon 28
Oregon hasn’t played up to their usual offensive standard this year aside from the Oregon State game. They struggled to complete deep passes and finish drives. Ohio State’s run game and defense lead them to a win.
Max: Ohio State 28, Oregon 27
Quinshon Judkins has a big day against Oregon’s average run defense while Ohio State’s defensive line edges out the Oregon offensive line in a heavyweight bout. The Buckeyes win in a terrific game and become the new No. 1 team in college football.
No. 9 Ole Miss Rebels at No. 13 LSU Tigers (7:30 PM EST on ABC)
Storyline to know: A game with massive playoff implications
As two one-loss SEC teams, Ole Miss and LSU can probably afford only one more defeat if they want to keep their College Football Playoff aspirations alive. So, the winner of this matchup still has one loss in its back pocket while the loser will likely have to run the table, which will need to include at least one upset victory.
Outside of the Tigers, the Rebels currently have two more ranked teams on their schedule in No. 18 Oklahoma and fifth-ranked Georgia, both at home. LSU must still host the Sooners and No. 7 Alabama while also traveling to No. 15 Texas A&M.
Matchup to watch when Ole Miss has the ball (Dalton): Will Jaxson Dart’s deep ball return vs. a vulnerable LSU secondary
The Rebels’ offense heavily relies on creating deep shots down the field, especially outside the numbers and off of play-action. Over the past two weeks, that reliance has betrayed them as they completed just three of their 16 passes thrown beyond 20 yards. As a result, they’ve played in two relatively low-scoring games – a loss to Kentucky and a grinding win over South Carolina.
Despite the daunting environment, a trip to LSU gives them a chance to remedy those issues and return to their early season form. The Tigers currently rank 114th in the FBS with a 61.8 coverage grade. Only Mississippi State has a lower mark in the SEC. That problem has only been compounded by the fact that superstar linebacker Harold Perkins Jr. suffered a season-ending knee injury.
The deep ball has once again been a problem for the LSU defense. The Tigers rank 91st in the nation this year with a 41.4 coverage grade against deep passes despite not facing many credible passing attacks this season. Only three teams in the Power Four have allowed a higher rate of explosive plays than the Tigers.
LSU actually did a reasonably good job at limiting Dart’s deep opportunities last season, but he responded by shredding them underneath and the Tigers couldn’t get consistent pressure on him. In the end, they still allowed 55 points and couldn’t get the win. If Dart finds the explosive plays that have eluded him the past couple of weeks, it could be a long night for the Tigers’ defense.
Matchup to watch when LSU has the ball (Max): LSU’s offensive line against Ole Miss’ defensive line
LSU’s two offensive tackles, Will Campbell and Emery Jones Jr., are currently top 50 prospects on PFF’s 2025 NFL Draft big board. Campbell in particular is a top-10 prospect and is the top offensive lineman in that ranking. The Tigers are currently 11th in the nation in pass-blocking grade (82.2), allowing a pressure at the fourth-lowest rate in college football (18.2%). They also help generate 2.2 rushing yards before contact per attempt, a top-35 rate in the country. The issue is that LSU’s stable of running backs generates just 2.8 yards after contact per carry, the 101st-best rate in the nation which leads to an average rushing attack overall.
Their opponent this week is college football’s highest-graded defensive line in Ole Miss, which has easily been the best part of what’s normally an offense-centric team under Lane Kiffin. The Rebels lead the nation with a 96.7 run-defense grade, placing second in yards before contact allowed per attempt and third in yards allowed after contact. No other defense is in the top 10 for both. Ole Miss is also fourth in pass-rushing grade and leads all defenses in America with 139 total pressures this season while its 27 sacks are tied for the most. This isn’t a one-man show either. All seven defensive linemen with at least 125 snaps have a 75-plus PFF grade this year, while four are above 80.
LSU already has one game under its belt against an elite defensive line in South Carolina, though the results weren’t particularly pretty. The Tigers had just a 58.2 pass-blocking grade against the Gamecocks, their worst mark since Week 6 of last season.
Predictions
LSU’s defense has been a problem since the start of last season. Ole Miss has a prime rebound opportunity after struggling to score the past two weeks.
The Rebels take advantage of a vulnerable Tigers’ secondary while Ole Miss’ defensive line shuts down LSU’s run game and makes Garrett Nussmeier uncomfortable enough to pull off the win.
No. 11 Iowa State Cyclones at West Virginia Mountaineers (8 PM EST on FOX)
Storyline to know: Can Iowa State prove itself as a top Big 12 contender in a tough road environment?
After entering the year with the sixth-most votes among Big 12 teams in the preseason AP poll, Iowa State is currently the highest-ranked team in the conference six weeks in. That’s due to a perfect 5-0 record for the Cyclones, their best start since 1980.
They’ll try to continue to prove themselves this week on the road against West Virginia. While the Mountaineers only sport a 3-2 record, both of their losses came to still-undefeated teams in Penn State and Pittsburgh. West Virginia is currently a top-30 team in PFF’s power ranking and is coming off a 24-point victory over Oklahoma State this past weekend.
Matchup to watch when Iowa State has the ball (Dalton): Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel vs. West Virginia’s secondary
Iowa State quietly has one of the best wide receiver duos in the country. Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel both rank inside the top five in the FBS in receiving grade. The Cyclones are one of just three teams, along with Washington and Ohio State, with a pair of 400-yard pass catchers.
They should have an environment to thrive in as they face a Mountaineers defense that’s posted the third-worst coverage grade in the Power Four. West Virginia would likely have at least one more win if it hadn’t allowed so many explosive passes in the early going.
No Power Four team has a lower coverage grade when facing 10-plus yard targets than West Virginia. Iowa State wide receivers rank fifth in the nation in receiving grade on 10-plus yard targets. West Virginia played a bit better in coverage last week against Oklahoma State, but given the totality of the sample we’ve seen so far, the Cyclones have reason to believe they can exploit the Mountaineers’ secondary.
Matchup to watch when West Virginia has the ball (Max): Can West Virginia’s offensive line dominate?
While Iowa State’s secondary has been outstanding (10th best team coverage grade in the nation), its front seven has left a lot to be desired. The Cyclones are just 95th in run-defense grade, 117th in tackling grade and 98th in pass-rushing grade. Iowa State allows five yards per carry on the season, with 1.9 coming before contact (96th). The Cyclones are also just 94th in pressure rate this year as well (28.6%).
While Garrett Greene and West Virginia’s receivers have been just average this year, the Mountaineers can fall back on a dangerous rushing attack with one of the nation’s best offensive lines up front. West Virginia’s front-five is the Power Four’s highest-graded unit so far (86.9) and is the only offensive line with 85-plus grades both in pass-blocking and run-blocking. In fact, no other offensive line even hits the 80 mark in both categories.
Led by the three-headed monster of CJ Donaldson, Jahiem White and Garrett Greene, West Virginia runs for 5.9 yards per carry and has forced a missed tackle on 31% of attempts, the third-best rate in the Power Four.
Predictions
Dalton: West Virginia 34, Iowa State 31
These teams’ contrast in style make this a tough game to predict. West Virginia is picking up steam, though, and they can control the pace of the game with their three-headed rushing attack.
Max: West Virginia 28, Iowa State 24
West Virginia’s offensive line mauls Iowa State which allows the Mountaineers to run wild and pull off the upset.
No. 18 Kansas State Wildcats at Colorado Buffaloes (10:15 PM EST on ESPN)
Storyline to know: Colorado’s opportunity for a major statement in the Big 12
Colorado had a ton of hype but not much substance last year, finishing with a 4-8 record. The Buffaloes already have as many wins as last season and seem to have significantly improved in the trenches, which is what ended up being their kryptonite last year.
With a more physical team to go along with one of the nation’s top quarterbacks (Shedeur Sanders) and top players (Travis Hunter), Colorado can actually compete for a conference title and a playoff spot in what’s a wide-open Big 12. This week’s matchup against Kansas State, the highest-ranked Big 12 team in PFF’s power rankings, will show just how real those hopes are for the Buffaloes.
Matchup to watch when Kansas State has the ball (Dalton):
Colorado’s run defense will be crucial against a Kansas State team with an elite rushing attack, featuring Avery Johnson, DJ Giddens and former Buffalo Dylan Edwards. It’s a similar diverse attack to what Colorado recently faced in UCF, and perhaps even better.
Colorado’s transfer portal additions in the front seven have spurred the Buffaloes to their current 13th-place ranking in run defense grade. They’re filling gaps and tackling extremely well. They suddenly have one of the best run-defending linebacker corps in the nation, headlined by Nikhai Hill-Green and LaVonta Bentley.
Playing well at the second level is key to slowing down an attack like Kansas State’s. Last week against UCF, though, Robert Livingston made an interesting schematic adjustment based on his newfound trust in his defensive front.
Prior to the UCF game, Colorado ran an extremely high rate of single-high defenses, specifically Cover 1, to support their run defense with extra players. Against UCF, the Buffaloes flipped the script and ran primarily Cover 2. Part of the reasoning is that they jumped out ahead of the Knights and were able to sit back with a lead. However, Colorado still did a solid job defending the run, and quarterback KJ Jefferson was the one who hurt the Buffaloes the most.
Robert Livingston is increasingly mixing things up with his schemes as his players have earned more of his trust. How he handles Kansas State’s run game, especially Avery Johnson, will be the Buffaloes’ success.
Matchup to watch when Colorado has the ball (Max): Can Colorado give Shedeur Sanders enough time to operate?
Colorado’s season will go as far as the offensive line allows them. The front seven has completely flipped from a major weakness to a massive strength while Sanders, the receiving corps and the secondary remain very strong.
The offensive line still has its issues as it’s the 84th highest-graded unit in the country. The Buffaloes allow a pressure on 35.6% of dropbacks (108th) and a sack on 8.1% of them (114th). Kansas State is 25th in pressure rate (38%) on the season while its 16 sacks are also a top-25 mark in the country. Many of those pressures came in unblocked or cleanup situations, as the Wildcats are just 91st in pass rush win rate as a team.
Kansas State doesn’t blitz or stunt all that much, so it’ll be on the offensive line to win their one-on-one assignments. If they do that just enough, there might not be a defense in America that can shut down Sanders and these weapons.
Predictions
Dalton: Colorado 35, Kansas State 28
Quarterback play and run defense are the most crucial aspects of winning in the Big 12 this year. Nobody in the conference is currently better at those two things than Colorado. If Kansas State doesn’t find a pass rush, they’re in for a long night.
Max: Colorado 30, Kansas State 27
The Buffaloes slow down Kansas State’s run game just enough while Sanders and Hunter continue to show why they’re two top-10 picks in the 2025 NFL Draft. Colorado is for real, folks.
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