College Football Week 6 Preview: Storylines, matchups and predictions for the five biggest games

• Missouri–Texas A&M: The Tigers and Aggies meet in the only game between ranked teams of Week 6.

• Michigan–Washington: The Wolverines and Huskies square off in a rematch of last year’s national championship game.

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Estimated Reading Time: 29 minutes

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Week 5 of college football brought major shakeups to the sport. Three top-10 teams went down, two of which came to unranked opponents. While Week 6 isn’t as loaded, there are still plenty of enticing matchups to get excited about. In fact, two top-10 teams enter this weekend as road underdogs. 

Here are the storylines to know, matchups to watch and predictions for six of the biggest games this weekend.

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No. 9 Missouri Tigers at No. 25 Texas A&M Aggies (12 PM EST on ABC)

Storyline to know: Missouri’s toughest game yet

Missouri’s four games this year can be split into two distinct halves. The Tigers took care of business against Murray State and Buffalo in the first two contests, beating them by a combined score of 89-0. The following two weeks against Boston College and Vanderbilt, Missouri won by a combined nine points and was taken to overtime by the Commodores.

What those first four games all share in common is that they were all played in Columbia, Missouri. The Tigers will hit the road for the first time this year against No. 25 Texas A&M in the only matchup between ranked teams in Week 6.

Matchup to watch when Missouri has the ball (Dalton): Can Missouri still create explosive plays down the field?

Last season, Missouri featured one of the most explosive offenses in college football. Led by Brady Cook and a stacked group of wide receivers, they had a multitude of ways that they could make big plays. All of those players returned for a potential playoff run this year, but so far, they haven’t been able to recreate their 2023 magic.

Missouri, 10-plus-yard targets:

Missouri’s execution, as it relates to their vertical passing game, has been nowhere near as good as last year. Cook is missing throws. The receivers aren’t getting open as often as they see a very high rate of zone coverage.

Luckily, Missouri’s run game and defense have played well enough to get the team through its first four games, but the foundation of their success was supposed to be an explosive passing game. 

They have a chance to get right this week against an Aggies squad that currently ranks 94th in the nation in coverage grade. They rank a nearly identical 96th when defending 10-plus yard targets. Their rate of explosive completions allowed is pretty low, but that’s at least in part due to subpar play from the quarterbacks they’ve faced.

This will be the week that we find out if Missouri’s passing attack can find its 2023 form.

Matchup to watch when Texas A&M has the ball (Max): Who will quarterback the Aggies?

Conner Weigman entered 2024 with a ton of hype as PFF’s top quarterback prospect in the 2025 NFL Draft. After a poor performance in the Week 1 loss to Notre Dame, he injured his throwing shoulder in Week 2 against McNeese State and hasn’t played since. While the season-opener was rough, Weigman has shown high-level play before as a passer. He posted a 90.9 passing grade last year in four games and earned an 85.9 mark against McNeese State before going down.

Redshirt freshman Marcel Reed has led the team in his stead and now has a 3-0 record as a starter this season. He’s still relatively unrefined as a passer in terms of his accuracy and footwork. Reed’s 59.2% adjusted completion rate is the lowest among any Power Four quarterback this season. What he does add though is game-breaking ability as a runner. Since becoming the starter in Week 3, Reed’s 211 rushing yards are ninth among all signal-callers in the nation.

Missouri’s two one-possession games this year came against schools that feature mobile quarterbacks in Boston College’s Thomas Castellanos and Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia. The Tigers did a nice job bottling up Castellanos, as he only finished with 32 rushing yards in that game. Pavia was more successful with 96 yards on the ground. Castellanos had more designed rushing attempts, whereas Pavia made his damage as a scrambler While Reed’s rushing ability is on par with them, both Castellanos and Pavia have passing grades above an 85 so Missouri still had to respect them as passers. Reed currently sits at a 59.5 mark. 

These two quarterbacks have very different playstyles, making Missouri’s life tougher on defense as they need to prepare for both. With the Tigers’ run-defense being the strength of their defense right now (25th in run-defense grade), Weigman probably presents more of a threat as the more refined passer, even if you sacrifice some mobility.

Predictions

Dalton: Missouri 34, Texas A&M 20

Missouri is more talented than Texas A&M. If the Tigers used the bye week to improve their execution on the field, they should take care of business.

Max: Missouri 27, Texas A&M 23

The Tigers take advantage of a vulnerable Texas A&M secondary and win their first road game of the season.

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SMU Mustangs at No. 22 Louisville Cardinals (12 PM EST on ESPN)

Storyline to know: Winner becomes the leader of the second tier of ACC teams

There’s a pretty clear delineation between the top-two teams in the ACC — there's Miami (FL) and Clemson, and everyone else. They’re two of the top-15 teams in the AP poll, and Louisville (No. 22) is the only other one in the top 25. 

SMU was one of two other ACC schools who even received votes (Boston College being the other), so the winner of this matchup will establish themselves as the new top challenger to the Hurricanes and Tigers.

Matchup to watch when Louisville has the ball (Dalton): Louisville’s play action vs. SMU’s secondary

Louisville currently ranks inside the top ten among FBS teams in offensive grade and EPA per play when using play action. Aside from a dominant performance against FCS-level Houston Christian, SMU has struggled to defend play action. Those two factors should enable the Cardinals to stay in the wheelhouse on offense.

Tyler Shough's Play-Action Metric (with FBS Rank):

Tyler Shough has been excellent so far when using play-action to attack defenses downfield. He owns one of the highest average depth of target figures in the country, yet still places just outside the top ten in passing grade.

The other dangerous aspect of Louisville’s passing game is its ability to attack the outer parts of the field. Even against Notre Dame, who is traditionally excellent at preventing outside completions, Shough and the Cardinals found success throwing to those areas.

SMU’s cornerbacks currently rank 118th in the nation in coverage grade. They will be tested in this game by Shough in addition to wide receivers Ja’Corey Brooks and Chris Bell. That matchup could determine the outcome of this game.

Matchup to watch when SMU has the ball (Max): Can Kevin Jennings continue his hot start?

Heading into the season, most expected Preston Stone to be SMU’s starting quarterback. For good reason too, his 91.0 passing grade in 2023 trailed only Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels among FBS signal-callers. So it was safe to say that Kevin Jennings being named the starter a few weeks ago was a surprise. 

The redshirt sophomore has done very well recently though. His 91.5 passing grade over the last two weeks trails only Jalen Milroe among FBS quarterbacks. Jennings is currently ninth among all signal-callers in the nation with an 88.9 passing grade without play action and is 13th in passing grade under pressure (73.8). 

Both those aspects will be critical against Louisville. The Cardinals are fourth in the nation in team run-defense grade (93.3), allowing just 3.6 yards per attempt. Louisville has also generated a pressure on 41.9% of opposing teams’ dropbacks this year, the sixth-highest rate in the country. 

Predictions

Dalton: Louisville 35, SMU 27

Louisville made a ton of mistakes last week and still played a tight game at Notre Dame. The Cardinals clean up their execution and earn a big conference win.

Max: Louisville 34, SMU 24

The Cardinals bounce back from their Notre Dame loss with a convincing win over the Mustangs.

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Iowa Hawkeyes at No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes (3:30 PM EST on CBS)

Storyline to know: Ohio State’s first test

Despite being the third-ranked team in the country, this is the first time we’ve previewed an Ohio State game. According to PFF’s power rankings, the Buckeyes’ toughest opponent has been Michigan State, who ranks just 75th. 

Iowa’s about a top-30 team in college football, so it’ll present Ohio State its first major trial before the Buckeyes take on Oregon in Eugene next week.

Matchup to watch when Iowa has the ball (Dalton): Kaleb Johnson vs. Ohio State’s run defense

Iowa has scored at least 30 points in three of its four games so far after doing so just once in 2023. Led by a healthy Cade McNamara and the Power Five’s leading rusher, Kaleb Johnson, the Hawkeyes have found a formula that works for them on offense.

Johnson is sure to be the focus of Ohio State’s stout defense as he’s off to an incredible start to this season.

Kaleb Johnson's rushing stats (with FBS ranks):

Johnson has become the catalyst for Iowa’s run game under new offensive coordinator Tim Lester. He’s a tremendous athlete with great speed and a perfect fit in Lester’s outside zone scheme.

The Buckeyes counter with some of the best run defenders in the nation. Edge defender Jack Sawyer is one of the best run defenders in the nation. Defensive tackle Tyleik Williams is expected to return from injury this week. Safety Lathan Ransom leads all defensive players who have played at least 40 run defense snaps with a 93.7 run defense grade.

All of that adds up to the Buckeyes currently ranking fifth in the nation in run defense grade, albeit against a light early season schedule. Each team faces their toughest test so far in 2024. If Iowa can succeed on the ground, they can control possession and give themselves a chance to win. 

Matchup to watch when Ohio State has the ball (Max): Ohio State’s weapons against Iowa’s secondary

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Ohio State has star receivers. The Buckeyes are one of two schools in the nation with multiple wideouts who are among the top 15 in receiving grade this year in Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith. Egbuka is the veteran of the group as a senior and is ninth in the nation with an 85.1 receiving grade. His 240 yards after the catch are sixth in the country as well. Smith is a phenom and leads all true freshmen with an 84.1 receiving grade. The former No. 1 recruit’s 17 receiving first downs/touchdowns are eight more than any other true freshman.

They might not be able to run wild against Iowa, who entered the season with my No. 2 secondary in the country. The Hawkeyes have done nothing to change my thoughts on them, as they’re currently sixth in team coverage grade (91.5) this year. In particular, Jermari Harris leads all FBS cornerbacks in coverage grade (90.5). So far this season, he has eight combined pass breakups and interceptions with only five catches allowed. 

Predictions

Dalton: Ohio State 24, Iowa 16

Iowa still has a terrific defense and Will Howard isn’t playing elite football. Ohio State’s talent wins the day, but not without a scare.

Max: Ohio State 33, Iowa 13

Iowa’s defense is able to make it interesting early, but the Hawkeyes can’t score enough to have a chance at upsetting the Buckeyes.

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No. 12 Ole Miss Rebels at South Carolina Gamecocks (3:30 PM EST on ESPN)

Storyline to know: How does Ole Miss respond?

The Rebels were on the wrong side of one of the biggest upsets in Week 5. Despite being 15.5-point favorites, then-No. 6 Ole Miss lost at home to Kentucky by a 20-17 final score. 

The Rebels must bounce back quickly as they now travel to a South Carolina team that sports a 3-1 record, with the one loss coming to No. 13 LSU in a game where the Gamecocks missed the potential game-tying field goal with no time left. South Carolina is also coming off its bye week, so it’s had two weeks to prepare for Ole Miss. 

Matchup to watch when Ole Miss has the ball (Dalton): Is Ole Miss willing to manufacture offense instead of relying on deep shots?

Two things plagued Ole Miss’ offense in its loss last week to Kentucky — overreliance on deep passes and a lack of a run game.

Against a good Kentucky defense, Jaxson Dart completed just one of his seven passes thrown over 20 air yards. The lone completion came via a miraculous scramble drill catch by Caden Prieskorn late in the game. Dart’s average depth of target in the first half was an incredibly high 16.6 yards. Their passing game, aside from Tre Harris, was stagnant for the majority of the game.

The Rebels also called only five designed run plays in the first half of the game. They increased that total in the third quarter but had a mostly ineffective day on the ground totaling just 74 yards on 20 designed carries. 

These trends appear to be a continuation of what we saw in their two losses last season to Alabama and Georgia. Dart completed just one deep ball across those two games and the team averaged 4.0 yards per designed carry. They have an elite pass rush and have only

South Carolina may not be as talented as those two teams, but its defense is arguably better than Kentucky, whom they beat 31-6. They boast an elite pass rush, headlined by freshman superstar Dylan Stewart, and they’ve allowed just 10.4% of their opponent's pass plays to gain at least 15 yards.

South Carolina currently ranks 69th in the nation in run defense grade, though, and allowed 4.7 yards per designed rush across their games against Kentucky and LSU. Ole Miss would be wise to take a more conservative approach to its offensive game plan rather than forcing vertical passes into a good secondary.

Matchup to watch when South Carolina has the ball (Max): South Carolina’s offensive line against Ole Miss’ defensive line

The good news for the Gamecocks is that quarterback LaNorris Sellers is set to make his return after spraining his ankle against LSU three weeks ago. The bad news is that he’ll have one of the best defensive lines in the country breathing down his neck. Ole Miss’ defensive line currently leads the nation in PFF grade as a unit (91.9) while the Rebels are first in team run-defense grade (95.9) and are tied for second in pass-rushing grade (86.0), ironically with South Carolina. Ole Miss leads the FBS in yards per attempt allowed (2.5) and is second in the country with 113 total pressures this year. Four Rebels’ defensive linemen have earned 80-plus PFF grades this year: Jared Ivey, Princely Umanmielen, Walter Nolen and Suntarine Perkins. 

That could present a major issue for the Gamecocks, whose offensive line struggles from 2023 have carried over into this season. South Carolina’s front five has earned just a 60.9 grade as a unit, which places them 99th among 134 FBS offensive lines. The Gamecocks will likely struggle to generate any push in the run game and protect Sellers, which could only be compounded if his ankle injury continues to affect his mobility.

Predictions

Dalton: Ole Miss 31, South Carolina 24

We’ll learn a lot about the Rebels early in this game. As long as they adjust from a rough game plan last week, they should keep their season afloat with a win.

Max: Ole Miss 35, South Carolina 20

Ole Miss’ defensive line steals the show and the Rebels get back on track after last week’s upset. 

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No. 10 Michigan Wolverines at Washington Huskies (7:30 PM EST on NBC)

Storyline to know: National championship rematch

Saturday night’s clash between Michigan and Washington in Seattle is a rematch of last season’s national title game, where the Wolverines won soundly by a 34-13 final score.

Both teams look drastically different from last year, starting on the sidelines. Both Jim Harbaugh (Los Angeles Chargers) and Kalen DeBoer (Alabama) left for other jobs, leading to Sherrone Moore and Jedd Fisch to fill their shoes. It’s been a mixed bag for the two, as Michigan suffered its first regular season loss in three years to Texas but made its way back into the top-10 by beating then-No. 11 USC a couple weeks ago. Washington is off to just a 3-2 start to its season with losses to Washington State and Rutgers so far. Even so, the Huskies are still favored at home against the Wolverines. 

Matchup to watch when Washington has the ball (Dalton): Washington’s offensive line vs. Michigan’s defensive line

After their scintillating national championship run, Washington experienced a complete overhaul of their offensive personnel. That includes an offensive line with five new starters. They’ve done a serviceable job so far, but they still rank just 89th in the nation with a 63.4 overall grade.

Even that number is inflated a bit by two games against non-Power Five competition. If we narrow the scope to their last three games, they rank 102nd overall and 120th in run-blocking grade. As a result, they’ve scored 24 or fewer points in three straight games.

While they’ve faced solid defenses in that stretch, they have yet to see anything close to Michigan’s unit, especially their elite defensive line.

Michigan's Defensive line ranks:

There may not be a better front four in the country than Mason Graham, Kenneth Grant, Josaiah Stewart and Derrick Moore. Michigan’s defensive line is the constant that holds the team together. The Wolverines' defensive line boast elite marks in just about every metric we have.

Jonah Coleman has been running extremely well for the Huskies despite subpar run blocking. Will Rogers’ swift average time to throw, 2.48 seconds, allows him to beat opposing pass-rushers to the punch. Those skills will be of great importance with Washington being at a severe disadvantage in the trenches.

Matchup to watch when Michigan has the ball (Max): Can Washington make Alex Orji win as a passer?

Ever since Michigan switched to Alex Orji a couple of weeks ago, the Wolverines have been completely reliant on their run game. Michigan has run the ball on 65.5% of its plays over the last two weeks, the second-highest rate in the Power Four. While Donovan Edwards graces the cover of EA College Football 25, it’s actually Kalel Mullings who’s been the lead back for the Wolverines. He’s currently eighth among FBS running backs in rushing yards (540) and ninth in yards after contact (363).

Washington currently leads the Power Four with an 82.3 tackling grade but has been pretty average in run defense overall, placing 67th in the FBS in EPA per run and 57th with 4.5 yards allowed per attempt. 

If Michigan can stay ahead of the chains, it should be able to score enough to win. If Orji is forced into obvious passing situations, that opens the door for the Huskies as he owns the fifth-worst passing grade in the Power Four (53.4).

Predictions

Dalton: Michigan 24, Washington 13

Michigan has had its issues, but their defense is a constant. This game will be played at their speed, and they’ll take full advantage.

Max: Michigan 28, Washington 14

Just like last year’s national championship game, Michigan’s run game and defense prove to be too much for Washington to handle.

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No. 8 Miami (FL) Hurricanes at California Golden Bears (10:30 PM EST on ESPN)

Storyline to know: All eyes on Berkeley

The Golden Bears are hosting ESPN’s College GameDay for the first time in program history, leaving just six Power Four programs who’ve never hosted the show. Even after its loss last week to Florida State, California is still off to a solid 3-1 start to its season and is a top-45 team in PFF’s power rankings.

A team below them in that ranking, Virginia Tech, nearly upset Miami last weekend but had its completed Hail Mary overturned on the final play of the game. The Hurricanes will try to shake that off this week and preserve their undefeated season as they travel across the country to California.

Matchup to watch when Miami (FL) has the ball (Dalton): Cam Ward vs. Cal’s secondary

If the Golden Bears are going to slow down Cam Ward and Miami’s dynamic offense, they will rely on their secondary that has played at a high level through their first four games.

Cal is currently tied for 16th in the FBS with a 90.1 team coverage grade. They lead the nation with 10 interceptions, including a combined 6 by their outstanding cornerback duo, Marcus Harris and Nohl Williams. It’s a well-rounded coverage unit as well with six different players who have played at least 100 coverage snaps earning a coverage grade above 73.

Forcing turnovers will be key against Ward, who has a long history of putting the ball in danger. Coming into this season, Ward generated 71 big-time throws and 79 turnover-worthy plays. He’s greatly improved upon that ratio this year, but turned the ball over three times last week, which was a primary reason the Hurricanes were in a tight game with Virginia Tech.

It’s certainly a step up in competition for the Golden Bears. Their first four opponents have earned a combined 75.5 passing grade. Ward currently ranks second in the FBS in passing grade and yards while throwing the most touchdowns. If the Golden Bears can force him into mistakes, though, they stand a chance.

Matchup to watch when California has the ball (Max): California’s offensive line against Miami’s defensive line

The Golden Bears’ offensive line has really struggled this season. Cal’s front five is currently the seventh-lowest graded unit in the Power Four (59.3) and has allowed a sack/hit at the ninth-highest rate in the country (18.8%). Luckily for the Golden Bears, quarterback Fernando Mendoza has the 27th-best grade under pressure this year (67.2).

They’ll likely need him to continue performing admirably under duress this weekend. Miami entered the season with my No. 3 defensive line in college football and is currently second in the nation in defensive line grade (89.8). The Hurricanes lead the nation this year in pressure rate (45.8%). Perhaps most impressively, the Hurricanes’ best defensive lineman, edge defender Rueben Bain Jr., has only played three snaps this year due to injury. Head coach Mario Cristobal confirmed this week that the star sophomore will return this weekend against California, making blocking Miami even more of a daunting task for Cal. 

Predictions

Dalton: Miami 42, California 24

Miami bounces back after a tight first ACC game last week. Cam Ward and their play in the trenches prove too much for Cal to handle.

Max: Miami 35, California 21

Miami’s defensive line feasts on California’s struggling offensive line while Cam Ward adds to his Heisman campaign with a strong performance.