College Football Week 13 Preview: Storylines, matchups and predictions for the six biggest games

• Ohio State-Michigan: The Buckeyes and Wolverines meet in what will be the biggest game of the year.

• Oregon State-Oregon: The Beavers and Ducks square off for the final time in a historic rivalry.

• UTSA-Tulane: The Roadrunners and Green Wave square off for a spot in the AAC Championship Game.

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We’ve made it to the final weekend of the 2023 college football regular season, and there’s still so much up in the air. Who are the legitimate playoff contenders? Who will win the Heisman Trophy? Heck, who even is playing in the conference title games next weekend?

This week’s games will answer at least that final question while giving a clearer picture of the others. Here are the storylines to know, matchups to watch and predictions for the five biggest games of Week 13.

(The ranking next to the teams is their AP poll ranking since this article comes before the College Football Playoff committee’s top-25.)

UTSA ROADRUNNERS AT NO. 18 TULANE GREEN WAVE (FRIDAY, 3:30 P.M. EST ON ABC)

Storyline to know: A spot in the AAC Championship is on the line

The Black Friday game between UTSA and Tulane has massive implications not only for the American Athletic Conference but for the Group of Five as well.

The winner clinches a spot in the AAC Championship Game next week while the loser needs Navy to upset SMU in order to still get in. The Green Wave also need a win to remain the favorite to represent the Group of Five in a New Year’s Six Bowl. If the Roadrunners win, it opens the door for schools like Liberty or Toledo. 

Matchup to watch: Which quarterback handles pressure better?

Tulane and UTSA are remarkably similar in a number of ways. Each offense features a great receiving corps as both are among the 20 best FBS teams in receiving grade. The lone weakness of each of their passing games comes along the offensive line. The Green Wave place just 95th in the nation in pass-blocking grade while the Roadrunners are even worse at 113th.

That could be a problem against these defenses. UTSA’s 42 sacks this season are tied for fourth among all teams in the country while Tulane’s 45.8% pass-rush win-rate is 11th. They’ll need to consistently get home though as both defenses are also outside of the top 75 in terms of coverage grade. 

However, even if they create constant pressure, each quarterback is more than adept at handling it. UTSA’s Frank Harris is tied for third among FBS signal-callers in passing grade under pressure (78.7) while Tulane’s Michael Pratt is seventh (71.6).

Prediction: Tulane 28, UTSA 24

Tulane punches its ticket to the AAC Championship Game and moves one step closer to its second-straight New Year’s Six appearance.

NO. 15 OREGON STATE BEAVERS AT NO. 6 OREGON DUCKS (FRIDAY, 8:30 P.M. EST ON FOX)

Storyline to know: The last game in a storied rivalry

Oregon and Oregon State, located 40 miles apart, make up one of college football’s most historic rivalries. Friday’s game will be the 127th meeting between the two, tied for fourth in the FBS.

Most played FBS rivalries

The Ducks and Beavers have met every season since 1945, but that’ll end after this year. Oregon is leaving the Pac-12 for the Big Ten following this season and doesn’t have a current opening on its non-conference schedule until at least 2029. Oregon State has an opportunity to deal one final blow to its biggest rival before it heads out the door, as a loss all but eliminates the Ducks from playoff contention. 

Matchup to watch: Oregon State’s run game vs. Oregon’s run defense

The Beavers face an uphill battle in trying to keep up with the Ducks’ high-powered offense. Only LSU has a more efficient offense than Oregon in terms of expected points added per play. In order for Oregon State to keep pace, it’ll need to slow the game down through its rushing attack.

The Beavers lead the nation with an 84.2 run-blocking grade this year and are sixth in EPA per run. Oregon’s run defense has been just average this season, placing 55th in the FBS with 4.8 yards per attempt allowed. 

Prediction: Oregon 38, Oregon State 24

Oregon wins the final game of a storied rivalry and sets up a de-facto playoff game in the Pac-12 championship against Washington.

NO. 2 OHIO STATE BUCKEYES AT NO. 3 MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (12 P.M. EST ON FOX)

Storyline to know: The biggest game of the year

There’s simply no other way to put it.

As was the case for the last couple of seasons, this year’s Ohio State and Michigan game is the year's biggest regular season contest. For starters, it’s arguably college football’s most contentious rivalry. Secondly, these are two 11-0 teams in the regular season finale, meaning the winner wins the Big Ten East and heads to the Big Ten Championship Game to take on Iowa. With the Hawkeyes being a weaker team compared to these two, “The Game” essentially serves as the Big Ten Championship itself and will likely send the winner to the College Football Playoff.

Making matters even juicier is the fact that the Wolverines’ head coach, Jim Harbaugh, won’t be patrolling the sidelines as he serves his suspension for the sign-stealing allegations. Offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore will serve as the interim coach.

Matchup to watch: Will either quarterback step up?

The winner of this game might come down to which signal-caller rises to the occasion. 

Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy was seen as a top Heisman candidate early in the season but that hype has all but died recently. He didn’t throw a single pass in the second half against Penn State as the Wolverines were able to rely on a dominant run game. McCarthy then posted a season-low 47.3 grade in a close win over Maryland with a career-high four turnover-worthy plays.

Ohio State’s Kyle McCord was never really in discussions to win the coveted stiff-arm trophy as his 79.2 grade stands 37th among FBS quarterbacks. However, he did earn a career-best 91.6 grade and four big-time throws against Michigan State a couple of weeks ago.

It’ll be tough sledding for both as well. The Wolverines and Buckeyes are among the top three defenses in the nation in overall grade, coverage grade and expected points allowed per play.

Prediction: Michigan 27, Ohio State 21

Even without Jim Harbaugh, the Wolverines beat the Buckeyes for the third straight year to advance to the Big Ten Championship Game against Iowa.

KENTUCKY WILDCATS AT NO. 9 LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (12 P.M. EST ON ABC)

Storyline to know: Louisville’s Cinderella run isn’t a fairy tale anymore

Louisville has been the biggest surprise in college football this season. The Cardinals entered the season unranked in Jeff Brohm’s first year as head coach with a preseason win total of eight games. They’ve already passed that with a 9-1 record and are now a top-10 team in the nation.

The College Football Playoff isn’t so far-fetched for Louisville either. It’ll face Kentucky this week before taking on Florida State in the ACC Championship Game, who’s now without star quarterback Jordan Travis. If the Cardinals go 12-1, they may only need a Texas loss in the next two weeks to sneak into the final four.

Matchup to watch: Can the Cardinals stop Ray Davis?

The key to shutting down Kentucky’s offense is by taking away its dominant run game. The Wildcats are third in the FBS in team rushing grade (93.0), behind only LSU and Oregon. The main reason for that is Ray Davis, whose 627 yards after contact this season are a top-15 mark among Power Five running backs. Louisville’s defense meanwhile is top-20 in the country with just 4.2 rushing yards allowed per attempt and is 32nd in team run-defense grade (85.3).

Prediction: Louisville 30, Kentucky 21

Louisville keeps its playoff dreams alive.

NO. 5 FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES AT FLORIDA GATORS (7 P.M. EST ON ESPN)

Storyline to know: How do the Seminoles respond to Jordan Travis going down?

Florida State suffered a devastating blow this past Saturday when star quarterback Jordan Travis suffered a gruesome leg injury in the win over North Alabama. His 92.0 grade over the past two seasons is tied for fifth among FBS signal-callers. 

The Seminoles must now go into “The Swamp” at night without its leader. A loss in either this game or the ACC Championship might eliminate them from playoff contention.

Matchup to watch: Backups on both sides

Tate Rodemaker will start in Travis’ absence. The redshirt junior has looked impressive this year with an 82.7 passing grade on 84 snaps this season. 

Rodemaker isn’t the only backup in this game who was thrust into the starting lineup. Florida quarterback Graham Mertz suffered a fractured collarbone in the loss to Missouri this past Saturday. Redshirt freshman Max Brown took over in his absence and has posted a 73.3 grade on 49 snaps this season.

Prediction: Florida State 31, Florida 23

The Seminoles survive their first test without Jordan Travis and move on to the ACC Championship Game with an undefeated record.