• Indiana–Ohio State: Two top-five teams square off in a game that’ll likely determine a playoff spot and who faces Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game.
• Notre Dame–Army: The Fighting Irish and the Black Knights face off in Yankee Stadium in a game with huge playoff implications for each school.
• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all of our in-season fantasy tools, including weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer and more. Sign up now!
Estimated Reading Time: 23 minutes
With just two weeks remaining in the regular season, teams are beginning to finalize their resumes to the committee for spots in the inaugural 12-team playoff.
Week 13 will prove to be critical for what the final bracket will look like. There are three games between schools still in playoff contention with another few games where a contender is on upset alert.
Here are the storylines to know, matchups to watch and predictions for seven of the biggest games this weekend.
No. 5 Indiana Hoosiers at No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (12 PM EST on FOX)
Storyline to know: The winner essentially clinches a spot in both the Big Ten title game and in the College Football Playoff
Saturday’s matchup between the Hoosiers and Buckeyes has massive implications for both the Big Ten and the College Football Playoff. The winner essentially clinches a trip to Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship Game against Oregon as long as they win their regular season finale (Michigan for Ohio State and Purdue for Indiana).
The winner also nearly guarantees itself a spot in the College Football Playoff. Indiana would at worst finish 11-1 in the regular season and has a signature win over Ohio State. Ohio State would at worst be 10-2 with victories over Penn State and Indiana with just a one-point loss on the road against top-ranked Oregon. The loser would be lumped into the logjam of two-loss SEC schools fighting for the final spots into the field with no guarantee of entry into the playoff.
Matchup to watch when Ohio State has the ball (Dalton): Will Howard vs. Indiana’s pass defense
Much has been made of Indiana’s relatively soft schedule. Aside from the lack of strength of their opponents in general, the Hoosiers have yet to face a passing attack with as much talent as Ohio State’s. Aided by two potential first-round wide receivers, quarterback Will Howard is quietly having an elite season.
Howard currently owns the eighth-best passing grade in the nation at 87.8. His 24 passing touchdowns lead the Big Ten. Most importantly, he’s shown improvement as a true dropback passer with an 82.7 non-play action passing grade after hovering around 60 during his four years at Kansas State.
Two factors come into play when Howard faces Indiana’s stout defense this week. First, Indiana has developed a dynamic pass rush unit, led by Mikail Kamara, that ranks fourth in the FBS in pass rush grade. Kamara leads the FBS with 53 pressures while seven other Hoosiers have racked up at least 10 pressures.
Ohio State’s pass protection has been compromised recently. Since Week 7, when starting left tackle Josh Simmons suffered a season-ending injury, the Buckeyes rank 115th in the FBS in pass blocking grade. After losing Simmons and his backup, Zen Michalski, they slid left guard Donovan Jackson out to left tackle. Jackson has adjusted well over the past two weeks, albeit against Purdue and Northwestern. Kamara should be expected to line up against him often.
Indiana’s coverage schemes are also unique because it rotates its safeties more than any team in the country. The goal of this is to force quarterbacks to see these rotations post-snap and delay their decision-making. That can create late throws from the quarterback as well as more time for the pass rush to disrupt the pocket. Howard has shown some weakness with a 58.0 passing grade this season when defenses have rotated their coverage.
Matchup to watch when Indiana has the ball (Max): Indiana’s passing attack against Ohio State’s elite defense
Indiana’s aerial attack has been deadly this season. The Hoosiers have the best offensive grade in the Power Four (92.4), the best receiving grade in the FBS (90.8) and Kurtis Rourke leads the nation in passing grade (92.4). They’re also tied for ninth in the Power Four in pass-blocking grade and only Ole Miss averages more EPA per play on passing plays this year.
They’ll face their toughest test yet in Ohio State, whose 94.2 defensive grade is the best in America. The Buckeyes are seventh in the country in coverage grade (91.6) and all five starters should be drafted into the NFL either this year or next year. All four defensive linemen should also be drafted within the first four rounds in 2025 and the Buckeyes are 12th among FBS schools in pressure rate (37.5%).
In a battle between the unstoppable force and the immovable object, it could prove wise to see what went wrong in each side’s worst performance of the season. The only time Indiana didn’t score at least 31 points this year was in its 20-15 victory over Michigan two weeks ago. The Hoosiers’ offensive line struggled immensely in that matchup against Michigan’s outstanding defensive line, allowing a 43.8% pressure rate on its way to a 40.6 pass-blocking grade. While the Buckeyes' front hasn’t been as dominant as the Wolverines’, it’s still pretty easily the next-best that Indiana’s faced this year.
The only time Ohio State allowed more than 17 points this year was in its 32-31 loss to Oregon a month ago. In that game, the Ducks attacked the perimeter of the Buckeyes’ defense, avoiding the elite safety duo of Caleb Downs and Lathan Ransom. Of Dillon Gabriel’s 36 completions, only five came from inside the hashes. Cornerback Denzel Burke had arguably the worst game of his career in the loss, allowing all eight of his targets to be caught for 179 yards and two touchdowns. Rourke is the highest-graded quarterback in the nation on throws (93.5) but is only 95th in attempts (82), as Indiana’s offense is more predicated on winning over the middle of the field. He should target the sidelines more on Saturday, where Ohio State has had some issues.
Predictions
Dalton: Ohio State 31, Indiana 24
Indiana has been on fire all year offensively, but Ohio State has arguably the best defense in the nation. If the Hoosiers win, it will be because Kurtis Rourke turns in a Heisman-worthy performance. The Buckeyes are still stacked, and they should win a competitive game, but the Hoosiers will prove they deserve to stand with the final 12 teams in the playoff.
Max: Ohio State 34, Indiana 21
The Buckeyes’ defense stifles the Hoosiers’ passing attack just enough while Indiana struggles to contain Ohio State’s elite stable of weapons. The Hoosiers suffer their first loss of the season, which could prove to be a fatal blow to their College Football Playoff hopes.
No. 9 Ole Miss Rebels at Florida Gators (12 PM EST on ABC)
Storyline to know: Ole Miss looking to solidify a playoff spot
With only two weeks remaining in the regular season, Ole Miss is clinging to a playoff spot at No. 9 in the playoff committee’s latest ranking. With a win over Georgia already under its belt, the Rebels should be in a good position to make the 12-team field as long as they win their final two games of the season against Florida and Mississippi State.
The Gators are far more likely to play the role of spoiler than the Bulldogs, as Mississippi State is likely to finish with a 2-10 record. Florida is having a far better year at 5-5 and has beaten both Kentucky and LSU by a combined 39 points, the two schools that took down Ole Miss this season. With this game occurring in the Swamp, the Rebels need to bring their best this week.
Matchup to watch when Ole Miss has the ball (Dalton): Ole Miss’ play action vs. Florida’s secondary
Prior to last week, Florida had struggled to defend the play-action pass, ranking 99th in the nation with a 55.5 coverage grade. In their victory over LSU, the Gators earned an outstanding 85.1 coverage grade in those situations while forcing two turnover-worthy plays from Garrett Nussmeier.
However, LSU’s play-action attack doesn’t produce at nearly the level of Jaxson Dart and Ole Miss. Dart’s 93.6 play-action passing grade leads the nation. In fact, Ole Miss trails only Indiana in team offense grade when using play action. After a lull in the middle of the season where they used it less, the Rebels have gotten back to these concepts that are foundational to their offense.
The Rebels also found their groove in the absence of their leading receiver, Tre Harris, who missed the last three games due to injury. New weapons such as Cayden Lee, Jordan Watkins, and Dae-Quan Wright emerged in his absence, which potentially makes the Rebels’ offense more dangerous than ever.
The Gators will have a lot to contend with in the passing game, starting with containing explosive plays that arise from play-action fakes.
Matchup to watch when Florida has the ball (Max): Can Ole Miss limit the deep ball from DJ Lagway?
While Lagway’s had a bit of a rollercoaster season, the true freshman has also shown off the ridiculous arm talent that made him the top-ranked quarterback recruit from the 2024 cycle. In fact, Lagway’s 99.4 passing grade on deep throws is the highest among all signal-callers in the nation by 3.6 points. He’s tossed 13 big-time throws on such plays with no turnover-worthy plays. Shedeur Sanders is the only other quarterback in the country who has that many big-time throws on deep passes with zero turnover-worthy plays.
Conversely, Lagway is the Power Four’s lowest-graded quarterback on short and intermediate throws, posting a 47.9 passing grade. He’s struggled with accuracy on those throws, putting up the worst adjusted completion rate in the Power Four (64.4%).
Ole Miss’ defense is the fourth-highest-graded in America this season with the eighth-best defensive grade on short and intermediate throws (82.9). That figure drops to 81st on deep throws (49.6) and they’re 104th in EPA per play. The Rebels have had some issues allowing deep throws outside the numbers, an area where Lagway is excelling.
Perhaps the best way for Ole Miss to limit Lagway’s deep ball is to not allow him to throw it in the first place. To do that, the Rebels’ defensive front needs to be as dominant as it’s been all season. Ole Miss is second to only Michigan in team pass-rushing grade (90.3) this season while their 216 pressures are tied for the most in America. Florida’s pass protection has been strong though, placing 14th in pass-blocking grade (80.3). Forcing Lagway to get rid of the football as quickly as possible is Ole Miss’ best chance of shutting down Florida’s passing attack.
Predictions
Dalton: Ole Miss 38, Florida 20
Florida played very well in its victory over LSU, but Ole Miss is a different animal. As long as their offensive line holds up, the Rebels should pick up a convincing victory on their way to the playoff.
Ole Miss’ pass rush helps limit the downfield ability from Lagway while Florida’s secondary should have a lot of issues containing Jaxson Dart and Ole Miss’ passing game.
No. 14 BYU Cougars at No. 21 Arizona State Sun Devils (3:30 PM EST on ESPN)
Storyline to know: Winner puts themselves in a great position for the Big 12 title race
Just like Indiana–Ohio State, Saturday’s game between BYU and Arizona State will likely determine who plays on conference championship weekend. The Cougars suffered the first loss of their season this past week to Kansas but still control their own destiny in the conference race. As long as BYU wins its final two games, it’s in the Big 12 Championship Game.
The Sun Devils aren’t in complete control of their own destiny, but they’ll be in an excellent position to make it to Dallas if they hand the Cougars their second-straight defeat.
Matchup to watch when Arizona State has the ball (Dalton): Will Sam Leavitt maintain his hot streak?
The Sun Devils have won five of their last six games due to the improvement of their quarterback, Sam Leavitt. The only loss in that stretch was a game that Leavitt missed due to injury.
Since Week 6, Leavitt has produced some of the best passing numbers in college football.
Sam Leavitt since Week 6
| Passing Grade | 90.0 (3rd) |
| Passing TDs | 14 (T-4th) |
| Turnover Worthy Play % | 1.2% (T-5th) |
| Passing Grade under pressure | 74.5 (2nd) |
Leavitt has been sensational on just about every front lately as a passer. While he doesn’t have the highest big-time throw rate, he has made very few mistakes, especially when under pressure. He has developed a tremendous chemistry with star receiver Jordyn Tyson, which has given the Sun Devils a balanced approach on offense.
Between Leavitt, Tyson and running back Cameron Skattebo, the Sun Devils possess multiple matchup problems for opposing defenses. Leavitt is getting better at honing his dual-threat abilities. Tyson has hit a new level of production with a recent spike in being aligned outside. Skattebo is a 1,000-yard rusher who also has gained the third most receiving yards among running backs.
BYU will have its hands full containing this trifecta of weapons.
Matchup to watch when BYU has the ball (Max): Can Arizona State get after Jake Retzlaff?
Jake Retzlaff has been one of the most improved quarterbacks in America this season, raising his PFF grade to an 82.8 mark compared to a 48.3 grade in 2023. However, there’s been a clear line of demarcation between his splits when defenses don’t speed him up against when they do.
Jake Retzlaff’s passing grades by situation
| Situation | Passing grade (FBS rank) |
| Kept Clean | 90.9 (14th) |
| Not Blitzed | 90.7 (4th) |
| Under Pressure | 43.5 (86th) |
| Blitzed | 56.3 (117th) |
In an exclusive interview with PFF, Retzlaff mentioned how he prefers when defenses don’t blitz because it’s much easier to identify what coverage they’re in, whereas blitzes often coincide with disguised coverages.
Fortunately for him, Arizona State has really struggled to get after the quarterback this season. The Sun Devils have the second-worst pass-rushing grade in all of college football (56.9) with the third-worst pass-rush win rate (21.3%). ASU has only pressured opposing quarterbacks on 23.7% of its dropbacks this season, the third-worst rate in the Power Four. Arizona State also doesn’t blitz much either, placing 110th in blitz rate (27.2%).
The Sun Devils should blitz far more often to help their struggling pass rush, or else they risk Retzlaff picking them apart.
Predictions
Dalton: Arizona State 31, BYU 27
BYU had been playing with fire and finally got burnt last week against Kansas. Arizona State stays hot in what should be a game filled with tension on both sides.
Max: BYU 27, Arizona State 24
With mostly clean pockets to work from, Retzlaff is able to find a lot of success against Arizona State’s defense. The Cougars win and keep their Big 12 title and playoff hopes alive.
No. 4 Penn State Nittany Lions at Minnesota Golden Gophers (3:30 PM EST on CBS)
Storyline to know: No room for error for Penn State
With a 9-1 record and a top-five ranking, it might seem like the Nittany Lions are very safe in the College Football Playoff race with just two weeks remaining in the regular season. However, Penn State would be in serious trouble if it drops either of its final two contests. The Nittany Lions’ best win came over Illinois, currently the No. 25 team in the country.
A loss in either of their final two games to Minnesota and Maryland would likely be a fatal blow to Penn State’s playoff hopes. Of those two, the Golden Gophers are far more likely to pull off the upset as it comes on the road and Minnesota is the far better team (42nd in PFF’s power rankings while Maryland is 87th).
Matchup to watch when Penn State has the ball (Dalton): Tyler Warren vs. Minnesota’s secondary
Tight end Tyler Warren has established himself as Penn State’s most explosive player on offense. He leads all Power Four tight ends with 808 receiving yards and a 91.8 receiving grade. His ability to win over the middle, run the football, or even step in as a wildcat quarterback has made him one of the most dynamic weapons in college football.
This week, Warren and the Nittany Lions face a good Minnesota defense that ranks 11th in total defense and 12th in points allowed per game, which also has allowed just a 50.7 passer rating when its opponents target tight ends, which is the fifth-best mark in the FBS. The Gophers' 82.6 coverage grade in those situations is the ninth-best as well.
One of the trademarks of that production is the Golden Gophers’ ability to limit yards after the catch. They have missed just one tackle on a tight end this season and allowed just 111 yards after the catch to them all season. Warren also happens to lead all Power Four tight ends in yards after catch. Their ability to take him down before he can create explosive plays will be paramount to their success.
Matchup to watch when Minnesota has the ball (Max): Minnesota’s pass protection against Penn State’s pass rush
Max Brosmer has had a very good year in his first season as Minnesota’s quarterback. The New Hampshire transfer’s 86.5 passing grade is 11th among all signal-callers in America so far this year. Brosmer’s especially good when allowed to operate from a clean pocket, placing sixth among FBS quarterbacks with a 92.2 passing grade. His ranking drops to 93rd when under pressure, posting just a 40.9 mark. The Golden Gophers have been just average in pass protection, allowing a pressure on 22.9% of dropbacks (70th).
That could prove to be a major issue against Penn State, who’s currently third in the nation with a 51.3% pass-rush win rate as a team and eighth with an 84.8 pass-rushing grade.
For those who follow the NFL Draft, the matchup to watch will be Minnesota left tackle Aireontae Ersery against Penn State edge defender Abdul Carter as each is a top-20 prospect on PFF’s 2025 NFL Draft big board.
Predictions
Dalton: Penn State 23, Minnesota 20
This should be a hard-fought defensive game. If Minnesota can contain Warren and force Penn State to beat them with somebody else, the Nittany Lions could have issues scoring. Penn State’s pass rush and Drew Allar’s ball security make the difference in a close win.
Max: Penn State 30, Minnesota 17
Penn State’s pass rush dominates and the Nittany Lions move to one win away from clinching a playoff spot.
No. 16 Colorado Buffaloes at Kansas Jayhawks (3:30 PM EST on FOX)
Storyline to know: Can Kansas play spoiler for the third straight week?
While its 4-6 record might not show it, Kansas is a very dangerous team. Only one of its six losses came by more than six points and the Jayhawks are currently a top-40 team in PFF’s power rankings.
Over the last two weeks, Kansas took down two Big 12 title contenders in Iowa State and BYU. It’ll look to make it three in a row against Colorado, who currently controls its own destiny both in the conference and in the playoff race.
Matchup to watch when Kansas has the ball (Dalton): Which Jalon Daniels shows up for Kansas?
Jalon Daniels has posted at least a 79.0 passing grade in four games this season. The Jayhawks have won all four of those games. He’s also earned under a 69.0 passing grade in six games this year. Kansas has lost all six of those games.
There are plenty of factors that Colorado will need to be aware of from Kansas’ offense, but the fact is that the Jayhawks’ offense will go as Daniels does. Last week against BYU, Kansas ran for a season-low 78 yards. That alone should’ve buried the Jayhawks, but Daniels made enough throws early in the game to give them a lead, and he made just one big mistake in the fourth quarter.
Daniels’ success this season has been correlated with two things — deep completions and avoiding mistakes under pressure. Daniels has made 18 big-time throws this year on deep passes. Ten of those have come in the team’s four wins.
Among 131 passers with at least 100 attempts thrown under 20 yards, Daniels ranks 111th with a 67.5 passing grade. He has been extremely reliant on hitting home runs downfield. The Buffaloes own the 11th-best coverage grade against 20-plus yard passes this season
Daniels has also immensely struggled under pressure. His 32.0 passing grade under pressure ranks among the worst in the country. Meanwhile, Colorado’s pass rush has emerged as a legitimate force lately. Edge rushers Arden Walker and B.J. Green II have led this unit to the sixth-best pass rush grade in the FBS since Week 8. Those two rank third and 11th, respectively, in pass rush grade among edge rushers during that timeframe.
Colorado can certainly help itself by creating pressure and preventing deep shots, but this game, just as every other Kansas game this season, is about the highs and lows of Jalon Daniels.
Matchup to watch when Colorado has the ball (Max): Can Kansas consistently pressure Shedeur Sanders against
If Shedeur Sanders isn’t the best quarterback in college football, he’s certainly on the shortlist. His best attribute is his processing ability, as he diagnoses coverages to find the open receiver at an NFL level already. That’s only possible if he has time in the pocket though, which is why there’s such a big split between his PFF grades when kept clean versus under pressure (93.9 when kept clean, 57.9 when under pressure). That’s why one of the biggest reasons for Colorado’s immense success recently has been the play of its offensive line. Since Week 7, the Buffaloes are fifth in the Power Four with an 84.3 pass-blocking grade.
Kansas has done a solid job of getting after the quarterback this season, placing 33rd in pressure rate and 29th in knockdown rate. The Jayhawks are able to do that while only blitzing 31.6% of the time (93rd in FBS). With a talented secondary behind the front seven, Kansas might be able to afford to send a blitz more than that to increase the pressure on Sanders.
Predictions
Dalton: Colorado 38, Kansas 31
Kansas can score with Colorado, but they own the 7th-worst team defense grade in the Power Four since they started Big 12 play. Shedeur Sanders rides another big game to another big victory.
Colorado’s offensive line seems to have figured it out over the last couple of months. As long as Shedeur Sanders is upright, he’ll put up at least 30 on most defenses. The Buffaloes survive and advance.
No. 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. No. 19 Army Black Knights (7 PM EST on NBC)
Storyline to know: A game with enormous playoff consequences for both teams
Saturday’s game between Notre Dame and Army in Yankee Stadium is critical for each school’s chances of making the College Football Playoff.
At 9-1 without a conference title game to partake in, another loss would likely kill Notre Dame’s hopes of making the playoff. While the win on the road over Texas A&M in Week 1 was impressive, it’s basically negated by a bad loss at home to Northern Illinois the very next week. And outside of that win over the Aggies, the Fighting Irish’s next best win is over a Louisville team that’s now 6-4 on the season.
With a perfect 9-0 record, Army is one of three undefeated teams left in America alongside Oregon and Indiana. A win over Notre Dame would likely have the Black Knights jump Boise State as the highest-ranked Group of Five team. Then, Army would just need to beat UTSA and Tulane in the AAC Championship Game to secure a playoff spot. A loss for the Black Knights on Saturday would force them to root for a Boise State loss in order to get into the playoff.
Matchup to watch when Army has the ball (Dalton): Notre Dame’s improved run defense faces another tough test
Notre Dame’s run defense got off to an uncharacteristically slow start this season. Since its bye in week 6, it has improved several of its key contributors that have led to elite production against the run.
Notre Dame Run Defense since Week 7:
| Run Defense Grade | 90.6 (7th) |
| Yards per carry allowed | 4.5 (38th) |
| YBC before contact allowed | 1.1 (21st) |
| Explosive run % allowed | 10.7% (13th) |
Prior to Week 7, the Fighting Irish ranked 75th in run defense grade. Since that point, they have seen elite production from their run defense even as they’ve faced tough rushing attacks like Georgia Tech and Navy.
That latter matchup will surely be a key, as Army creates a plan of attack for Notre Dame’s defense. Army doesn’t throw nearly as much as Navy, so it will be riding an offensive line that leads the nation in run blocking grade as well as quarterback Bryson Daily, who ranks second among quarterbacks with 1,063 rushing yards and second among all players with 21 touchdowns.
If Notre Dame continues to see improvement from interior players like Jack Kiser and Howard Cross III, the Fighting Irish should feel good about their chances of slowing Army down.
Matchup to watch when Notre Dame has the ball (Max): Can the Fighting Irish impose their will in the run game?
The last time Notre Dame faced off against a military academy, it was able to ride its run game to victory. Against Navy in Week 9, the Fighting Irish ran for 270 yards and four touchdowns, averaging 6.9 yards per carry and three yards before contact per attempt. Three different players had at least 50 yards rushing and a touchdown against the Midshipmen in running backs Jeremiyah Love, Kedren Young and quarterback Riley Leonard.
Notre Dame has been dominant on the ground all season, placing second in the Power Four in EPA per run (0.226), yards per carry (6.3) and rushing grade (92.5). The Fighting Irish’s offensive line has also done a very good job of moving people in the run game, placing eighth in that same group in run-blocking grade (72.3).
Army’s done a great job of limiting opposing rushing attacks this year, allowing just four yards per carry (11th in FBS). Just 2.6 of those yards come after contact, the fourth-fewest in America. The Black Knights will need that stellar run defense to carry over in what’s easily their toughest test of the season.
Predictions
Dalton: Notre Dame 35, Army 13
The Black Knights being unable to score more than 14 points in their last game against North Texas is concerning. Notre Dame has hit its stride on both sides of the ball, and Army hasn’t seen anything close to its talent level.
Max: Notre Dame 31, Army 14
Army’s offense has struggled in its last couple of games, averaging just 17 points against North Texas and Air Force. Those are two well below-average defenses at the Group of Five level, making it unlikely they’ll get back on track against one of the nation’s 10 best defenses in Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish win convincingly in Yankee Stadium and must only beat USC to get into the playoff.
No. 15 Texas A&M Aggies at Auburn Tigers (7:30 PM EST on ESPN)
Storyline to know: Potential trap game for Texas A&M?
Many in College Station are anxiously awaiting next week’s regular-season finale against Texas, and for good reason too. Not only is it the first time in 13 years that these longtime rivals are squaring off, but it also essentially serves as a playoff elimination game with the winner moving on to their first SEC Championship Game.
The latter is only possible if both take care of business this week. And of the two, the Aggies seem to be more on upset alert. They’re favored by just 2.5 points over Auburn, a school that must win its final two games to qualify for a bowl game. With it being a night game at Jordan-Hare Stadium, a rabid environment should be expected. Texas A&M can’t be caught looking ahead to next week or else it risks losing out on its conference title and playoff hopes before even facing the Longhorns.
Matchup to watch when Auburn has the ball (Dalton): Auburn’s run game vs. Texas A&M’s run defense
The Tigers would prefer to avoid relying on quarterback Payton Thorne for as long as they can. Against Power Four teams this season, he owns a 71.0 passing grade with nine touchdowns and seven interceptions. Auburn’s best course of action is to ride star running back Jarquez Hunter in order to shorten the game.
Hunter has been outstanding this season as he’s already racked up over 1,000 yards and earned an 84.7 rushing grade. He’s also forced 47 missed tackles. Hunter has amassed more than half of his rushing yards, though, in games against New Mexico, Kentucky, and Louisiana-Monroe.
That level of inconsistency is due in part to the struggles of Auburn’s offensive line. That unit has earned just a 64.5 run blocking grade against Power Four opponents with the Kentucky game standing out above the rest. Hunter ran for 278 yards in that matchup against the Wildcats, so we have seen the full capabilities of this run game when they execute.
The issue is that Texas A&M ranks 14th in the nation in run defense grade, led by star defensive linemen Shemar Stewart and Nic Scourton. The Aggies’ defensive line ranks third in the nation in run defense grade, so the Tigers will need their best effort up front in order to score points in this game.
Matchup to watch when Texas A&M has the ball (Max): Can Auburn force Marcel Reed to win with his arm?
Ever since Texas A&M made the switch at quarterback to Marcel Reed, the Aggies’ offense has been centered around its rushing attack. Texas A&M has run the ball on 51.4% of his plays during his five starts, the 14th-highest rate among Power Four schools. Reed’s 321 rushing yards during those five games stand third among Power Four quarterbacks.
Reed has had his fair share of struggles as a passer, posting a 58.9 passing grade (124th in FBS) with just a 65% adjusted completion rate (125th). With star running back Le’Veon Moss out for the season, Reed’s legs will be more valuable than ever as the Aggies continue to try to win off their ground game.
Auburn’s been one of the best in America at defending the run this season. The Tigers are eighth among FBS schools in run-defense grade (92.3) and allow just 3.9 yards per carry, the seventh-fewest in the nation. Just 0.9 of those yards come before contact, second to only Ole Miss among FBS schools. Auburn has had some issues with mobile quarterbacks before though, allowing a combined 182 rushing yards from Arkansas’ Taylen Green and Oklahoma’s Michael Hawkins Jr. during losses in September.
If Auburn can force Texas A&M’s offense to rely on Marcel Reed’s arm, it has a great chance of pulling off the upset.
Predictions
Dalton: Texas A&M 23, Auburn 16
In a battle of two good defenses, the Aggies survive because they are the better team in the trenches.
This game has the potential to get really ugly with how good both defenses are and how much both passing attacks have struggled this year. I wouldn’t be surprised if Auburn pulls off the upset, but I’ll pick Texas A&M to survive and set up a colossal showdown with Texas next week.
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