• Tennessee–Georgia: The Bulldogs put their season on the line against the Volunteers in the biggest game of Week 12.
• Utah–Colorado: The Buffaloes will try to continue controlling their own destiny against the Utes, who just took BYU down to the wire.
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Estimated Reading Time: 23 minutes
With only three weeks remaining in the college football regular season, it’s turning into do-or-die time for many College Football Playoff contenders.
Ahead of a crucial Week 12, here are the storylines to know, matchups to watch and predictions for seven of the biggest games this weekend.
No. 20 Clemson Tigers at Pittsburgh Panthers (12 PM ET on ESPN)
Storyline to know: Who stays alive in the ACC championship race?
While neither Clemson nor Pittsburgh control their destinies in the ACC, they’re each still alive for a berth in the conference title game.
The Tigers wrap up their conference schedule with this trip to the Steel City. If Clemson wins, it puts the pressure on Miami (FL) to avoid slipping up again or else the Tigers will pass the Hurricanes in the standings. The Panthers still have three conference games remaining including this contest, so they need to win out and the Hurricanes to lose at least once to force a tiebreaker scenario.
Matchup to watch when Clemson has the ball (Dalton): How long can Clemson ride Phil Mafah to success?
Clemson has had success throwing the ball downfield this season against lesser opponents, but its most consistent offensive player is running back Phil Mafah.
Mafah isn’t the most explosive runner, but he averages over 6.0 yards per carry and has picked up the 14th-most first downs of any running back in the nation. He’ll be facing a solid Pittsburgh unit that ranks 38th in the nation in run defense grade and 14th in that same category since Week 4. The Panthers have allowed just three 100-yard rushers this season — SMU’s Brashard Smith, Cincinnati’s Corey Kiner, and North Carolina’s Omarion Hampton.
Teams that have successfully run the ball against Pittsburgh are the ones who have given them the most trouble. The Panthers lost to SMU and Virginia over the past two weeks, each of whom rushed for at least 180 yards. Cincinnati and West Virginia also had fine days on the ground, and the Panthers needed big fourth-quarter comebacks to beat those two teams.
When Pittsburgh has struggled to defend the run, it has struggled to stop teams between the tackles. Clemson averages the eighth-most yards per carry between the tackles this season with 6.5 on average. The Tigers should ride its run game for as long as possible in this matchup.
Matchup to watch when Pittsburgh has the ball (Max): Will Pittsburgh run the ball more against a beat-up Clemson defensive line?
Pitt throws the ball more often than almost every team in the country. The Panthers have called a passing play on 66.7% of their snaps this season, fifth in America and only behind Colorado and Syracuse in the Power Four. Despite the high volume, Pittsburgh has had a lot of issues with its passing game, placing 111th in the FBS with a 63.5 grade on pass plays. That’s without even taking into account that both starting quarterback Eli Holstein and top receiver Konata Mumpfield were injured in the loss to Virginia this past weekend, leaving their respective statuses for Saturday in question.
It gets even bleaker for the Panthers’ aerial attack when considering that the best part of Clemson’s defense has been its secondary. The Tigers have a top-30 coverage grade in all of college football with sophomore corner Avieon Terrell looking like a potential first-round pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Clemson has far more issues up front, placing 62nd in run-defense grade and 80th in pass-rush grade. Two of the Tigers’ best defensive linemen, Peter Woods and DeMonte Capehart, missed last week’s game against Virginia Tech with injuries.
Pittsburgh has found success when it does run the ball this year, placing 16th in the country with six yards per attempt. Having a successful ground game will also open up the passing game more for the Panthers, who run play action at the third-highest rate in the Power Four (43.2%).
Predictions
Dalton: Clemson 31, Pittsburgh 17
Pittsburgh’s quarterback situation is extremely worrisome. Clemson proves that it is the better team on the road.
Max: Clemson 33, Pittsburgh 20
Pittsburgh struggles to get much going offensively and suffers its third-straight loss after starting the year 7-0. Clemson, meanwhile, wraps up its conference slate with a win and puts the pressure on SMU and Miami for the rest of the season.
No. 3 Texas Longhorns at Arkansas Razorbacks (12 PM ET on ABC)
Storyline to know: Texas might not be as safe as you’d think in the Playoff race
There’s a logjam in the SEC right now. There are still six teams with a conceivable path to at least an at-large spot in the College Football Playoff, as four of those schools sport two losses on the season.
While Texas only has one loss, its resume isn’t nearly as strong as you’d think. The Longhorns haven’t beaten any school that’s currently ranked in the top 25 and lost convincingly to Georgia a month ago. If Texas suffers a second loss, a 10-2 record with its resume might not be enough on Selection Sunday.
Matchup to watch when Texas has the ball (Dalton): Quinn Ewers vs. Arkansas’ struggling secondary
Quinn Ewers seems to have found his rhythm in his past two games after struggling against Oklahoma and Georgia after returning from injury. He’s thrown eight touchdowns to just two interceptions in his past two games. The two interceptions arose from passes that were batted at the line of scrimmage. Those performances have created a 74.6 passing grade that better represents Ewers’ total production this season.
Arkansas, meanwhile, has struggled to defend the pass all season. Its 47.3 team coverage grade is currently the sixth-worst in the FBS, and its Week 10 performance against Ole Miss was its worst of the season so far.
One of the keys for Arkansas will be disallowing the Longhorns from gaining significant yardage after the catch. Texas has gained the fifth-most yards after the catch in the FBS while the Razorbacks have allowed the ninth-most. Steve Sarkisian’s diverse screen package and RPO concepts could be a major issue for an already struggling secondary.
Matchup to watch when Arkansas has the ball (Max): Taylen Green against one of the best defenses in America
Arkansas is 23rd in EPA per play this year after finishing 103rd in 2023. The biggest reason for that massive jump is Taylen Green. The Boise State transfer is tied for 12th among FBS quarterbacks in passing grade (84.0) and is fifth among Power Four quarterbacks in rushing yards (550). The redshirt junior is a freak athlete with a big arm, tying for 15th in the country in passing grade on 10-plus yard throws (92.1).
His issue is that he’s going up against the highest-graded defense in college football. The Longhorns also lead the nation in coverage grade while allowing the lowest passer rating on 10-plus yard throws (24.3). Texas also hasn’t allowed a quarterback to rush for 70 yards on its defense yet this season.
Green’s been a mixed bag against strong defenses this season. He earned sub-55 grades in losses to Texas A&M and Ole Miss while posting an 85.1 mark in the upset win over Tennessee. It should be noted that Green is dealing with a knee sprain suffered in the loss to Ole Miss a couple of weeks ago but will likely be ready for Saturday. The Razorbacks will need not only a healthy Taylen Green but an elite one if they want to pull off the upset.
Predictions
Texas has had its share of adversity, but it still has the nation’s highest-graded defense and Arkansas has struggled to cover. The Longhorns take care of business.
Taylen Green is kept in check by Texas’ defense while Quinn Ewers has success against a very vulnerable Arkansas secondary. The Longhorns move one step closer to securing a College Football Playoff spot.
Utah Utes at No. 17 Colorado Buffaloes (12 PM ET on FOX)
Storyline to know: Can Colorado continue to control its own destiny?
Two years ago, Colorado tied for the worst record in college football (1-11). Now, the Buffaloes are 7-2 and control their own destiny for the Big 12 championship and by extension, a spot in the College Football Playoff.
First, Colorado must win its remaining three games. That starts on Saturday against Utah, who just took No. 6-ranked BYU down to the wire last weekend in a 22-21 loss.
Matchup to watch when Colorado has the ball (Dalton): Will Colorado’s new offensive line rotation stay hot?
Colorado’s pass protection has been under the microscope for nearly two seasons, and rightfully so. The Buffaloes finished 2023 ranked 69th in pass blocking grade while Shedeur Sanders was the second-most sacked quarterback in the country. Over the first several weeks of the season, it seemed that trend would continue as the team ranked 85th in pass blocking grade through Week 5.
They’ve suddenly bucked that trend over the last four games with an interesting twist on how they are getting it done.
Colorado Pass Blocking since Week 7 (Power Four Ranks):
| Pass Blocking Grade | 5th |
| Pressure % | 3rd |
| Knockdown % | 9th |
| Sacks | T-16th |
Colorado’s pass blocking has been superb during their last four games. In fact, Shedeur Sanders has been held responsible for a lot of the pressure he's endured this season. The prevailing assumption could be that they have found the right combination of five players up front who have benefited from weekly continuity.
However, that’s actually not the case with the Buffaloes’ unit. Jordan Seaton and Phillip Houston have remained locked in at the tackle spots, but the team has now begun to use a rotation of players on the interior over the past three games.
Tyler Brown, Justin Mayers, Kahlil Benson, and Kareem Harden have all seen significant action at the two guard spots. During that time, they’ve all earned pass-blocking grades above 80, except Benson, who still posted a solid 68.7 mark. That group has combined to allow just one pressure in the last three games.
This past week, they even turned to walk-on true freshman Cash Cleveland, a high school teammate of Seaton’s, to take the majority of the work at center, and he earned a very respectable 72.1 overall grade.
If Colorado is going to continue that level of pass protection, it will be incredibly difficult to stop. This week, the Buffaloes face a Utah defense that ranks just 70th in pass-rush grade. The Utes are known to blitz at a high rate, though, which presents a major challenge if the Buffaloes aren’t in sync up front.
Matchup to watch when Utah has the ball (Max): Utah’s run game against Colorado’s run defense
While it looked slightly better against BYU last week with Brandon Rose at quarterback, it’s no secret that Utah’s had immense struggles throwing the football this season. In fact, the Utes have the worst passing grade in the Power Four this year (48.5). Two of their top three pass-catchers, Brant Kuithe and Money Parks, are out for the remainder of the season due to injuries. Instead, Utah’s had to rely on running back Micah Bernard and a dominant offensive line for any offensive production it can find.
The Utes are sixth in the Power Four this season with a 77.0 run-blocking grade. Sophomore right tackle Spencer Fano leads all Power Four offensive linemen with a 91.6 run-blocking grade himself. While Bernard has had the pleasure of running through some gaping holes, he’s also done a great job of creating on his own. His 603 yards after contact stand 11th among Power Four tailbacks.
While a strong run game like that would’ve spelled big trouble for Colorado in past years, the Buffaloes’ additions in the transfer portal have really shored up their run defense. Colorado is 39th in run-defense grade this year after placing 122nd in 2023. And with an even better coverage unit (23rd in coverage grade), Robert Livingston can afford to stack the box on Utah and dare the Utes to beat them through the air with their third-string quarterback and a depleted group of weapons.
Predictions
Colorado rides a familiar formula as the team with the better quarterback and a solid run defense while Utah has struggled lately in coverage.
Utah fails to ever get in a rhythm offensively while Shedeur Sanders and his stable of weapons are too much for nearly any defense to handle, let alone one with an average pass-rush and secondary.
No. 25 Tulane Green Wave at Navy Midshipmen (12 PM ET on ESPN2)
Storyline to know: A massive game for the Group of Five playoff race
While Boise State and Army are pretty clearly the top-two contenders for the Group of Five playoff spot, this game between Tulane and Navy shouldn’t go unnoticed.
The Green Wave would clinch a spot in the AAC Championship Game against Army with a win over the Midshipmen, while Navy would just need to beat East Carolina next week if it wins this game. If either of them beat Army in that title game, all it would likely take is one Boise State loss for Tulane/Navy to be selected for the College Football Playoff.
Matchup to watch when Tulane has the ball (Dalton): Makhi Hughes and Tulane’s power run game vs. Navy’s run defense
Running back Makhi Hughes is Tulane’s offensive engine. He’s in the midst of a second excellent season in New Orleans, as he ranks fourth in the nation in rushing yards and rushing grade.
Slowing down Hughes will be the primary focus for a Navy defense that ranks 31st in the nation in run-defense grade but has allowed over 200 yards rushing on four different occasions.
Aside from Hughes, what makes Tulane’s run game so unique is their usage of personnel and scheme. The Green Wave use 12 personnel — one back and two tight ends — at the eighth-highest rate in the nation, and they are the highest-graded offense in the country in that grouping.
Another twist is that they also run power run plays at the fifth-highest rate in the country. No player in the nation has gained more yards in power run schemes this season than Hughes.
Through this combination of personnel and scheme, Tulane does an excellent job of creating leverage and numerical advantages upfront. At times, the Green Wave use motion to further exacerbate these advantages. If an opponent does find a way to get a free tackler to Hughes, they still have a hard time tackling him. If they send extra defenders to the box, then quarterback Darian Mensah takes advantage of opportunities on play-action shots down the field.
Stopping Tulane’s run game is incredibly difficult because of their talent and scheme. This will be the top priority for Navy’s traditionally smaller defense.
Matchup to watch when Navy has the ball (Max): Can Tulane handle Navy’s rushing attack?
As is the case with all of the service academies, Navy’s run game is the lifeblood of its offense. The Midshipmen have run the ball on 73.2% of their plays this year, third to only Army and Air Force in the FBS. Navy runs a hybrid version of the Wing-T formation in its triple-option offense, which confuses defenses to great effect. The Midshipmen average 2.7 yards yards before contact per attempt, fifth in the FBS. While Navy’s run-blocking is very good (15th in FBS), most of that is due to defenders having to hesitate to simply figure out who has the football.
While Tulane’s pass defense has been very strong, the same cannot be said for its run defense. The Green Wave allow 5.4 yards per carry, just 104th among FBS schools. A total of 1.9 of those yards come before contact, which stands 96th in that same group. Tulane will need to be very disciplined in its approach to Navy’s triple-option attack this week or it could end up being a long day for the Green Wave.
Predictions
Tulane has been on fire for seven games while Blake Horvath has significantly cooled down for the Midshipmen. Tulane sets up a date with Army in the AAC title game.
While Tulane might have some issues with Navy’s rushing attack, it’ll ultimately come up with enough stops to clinch a spot in the AAC Championship Game and stay alive in the Group of Five playoff hunt.
Arizona State Sun Devils at No. 16 Kansas State Wildcats (7 PM ET on ESPN)
Storyline to know: Two schools looking to stay alive in the Big 12 title hunt
Neither Kansas State nor Arizona State control their destinies in the Big 12 championship race, but they’re not out of it either.
If the Wildcats win, they’ll need to win out and a Colorado loss to pass the Buffaloes in the standings. If the Sun Devils win, they’ll need to win out and BYU to lose to either Kansas/Houston or Colorado to lose two of its final three games.
Matchup to watch when Arizona State has the ball (Dalton): Can Sam Leavitt continue to improve against a vulnerable pass defense?
Sam Leavitt is coming off arguably his two best performances of the season in wins over Oklahoma State and UCF. Those are two vulnerable defenses, and he should have an opportunity to continue that trend against a Kansas State defense that ranks outside the top 80 in pass rush grade and coverage grade.
Last week was particularly important for Leavitt because he was without star running back Cameron Skattebo. That could be the case again this week, but Leavitt earned a career-high 88.7 passing grade last week without Skattebo dominating the run game. His traditional numbers would’ve looked much better had two of his three big time throws not fallen incomplete.
Leavitt’s improvement on late downs will be the key to his success moving forward. The biggest question for the Sun Devils’ offense coming into the season was how they would perform if they got into obvious passing situations.
Through his first six starts, Leavitt completed less than half of his passes on third and fourth down while posting a 75.4 passing grade. Over the last two weeks, he’s completed 9 of his 14 passes and earned an outstanding 89.7 passing grade in those situations. Leavitt’s ability to extend drives with his arm, with or without Skattebo, will be key to Arizona State’s success in a game where both teams want to control the ball.
Matchup to watch when Kansas State has the ball (Max): Can Arizona State force Avery Johnson into obvious passing situations?
The bread and butter of Kansas State’s offense is its rushing attack. The Wildcats average 6.2 yards per carry on the year, tied for fourth in the Power Four. DJ Giddens is sixth in that same group with 690 rushing yards while Avery Johnson is eighth among Power Four quarterbacks with 460 yards on the ground.
While the latter is incredibly dangerous on the ground, the sophomore is still figuring things out as a passer. Johnson is 75th among FBS quarterbacks in passing grade (70.7) and has more turnover-worthy plays (11) than big-time throws (9). To be fair to him, he hasn’t gotten much help from Kansas State’s weapons. The Wildcats have the sixth-worst receiving grade in the Power Four this year.
Arizona State’s run defense has been solid this year, allowing 4.4 yards per attempt (31st in FBS). The Sun Devils have yet to allow a quarterback to run for 50 yards on them this season and only four running backs have rushed for 100 yards on them. It’s fair to say that they’ll be tested more than ever before this week against Kansas State’s backfield. If Arizona State can hold its ground in run defense, it has a great chance of winning this game.
Predictions
Dalton: Kansas State 31, Arizona State 26
Arizona State can win this game if it continues to force turnovers in big spots. However, the Sun Devils defensive line has struggled lately, which is a serious problem against the Wildcats.
Max: Kansas State 27, Arizona State 24
If Cameron Skattebo plays, I’d probably pick Arizona State to win this game. With his status up in the air, I’ll roll with Kansas State to win and put the pressure on Colorado in the Big 12 championship race.
No. 7 Tennessee Volunteers at No. 12 Georgia Bulldogs (7:30 PM ET on ABC)
Storyline to know: Elimination game for Georgia
That’s right. The Georgia Bulldogs are likely one loss away from missing the 12-team College Football Playoff. For a school that started the season ranked No. 1, won two of the last three national titles and finished inside the top-10 in each of the last seven seasons, that’d be considered nothing less than a colossal failure.
Georgia puts its season on the line this week against Tennessee, who’s looking to establish itself as the team to beat in the SEC and essentially clinch a playoff spot on Saturday.
Matchup to watch when Tennessee has the ball (Dalton): Dylan Sampson vs. Georgia’s run defense
Despite Tennessee owning the second-worst run-blocking grade in the Power Four, running back Dylan Sampson has had an outstanding season. His 1,126 rushing yards rank seventh in the nation while he trails only Ashton Jeanty with 20 rushing touchdowns.
While the Volunteers rank second in the Power Four in rushing yards per game, they haven’t actually been that efficient when on a per-carry basis. When facing Power Four defenses this season, they average just 1.6 yards before contact per attempt, a relatively average figure. They also own just a 12.6% explosive run rate against Power Four defense, which puts them in the same realm as teams like Colorado and UCLA.
Meanwhile, Georgia’s run defense has been the most consistent part of its team this season. The Bulldogs have earned at least a 70.0 run-defense grade in every game this season and topped out at 87.3 last week against Ole Miss. There are several reasons they lost that game last week, but they still allowed less than three yards per designed carry to the Rebels.
Georgia has several excellent run defenders that it can rely on, most notably defensive linemen Chaz Chambliss, Nazir Stackhouse, and Mykel Williams. If there were a game where Georgia’s defensive line could dominate and lead the team to a win, it's this one.
Matchup to watch when Georgia has the ball (Max): Georgia’s offensive line against Tennessee’s defensive line
For most of this season, Georgia’s offensive line has been about the only thing going right for its passing game. The Bulldogs are 15th in pass-blocking grade this year while placing 21st in pressure rate allowed (17.7%).
That all came apart against Ole Miss’ elite defensive line this past weekend. Georgia’s 49.9 pass-blocking grade in the loss was a new season low as the Bulldogs allowed five sacks and a 33.3% pressure rate.
The Bulldogs will need to bounce back quickly against this Tennessee defensive front that’s sixth in pressure rate (38.7%) and 11th in pass-rushing grade (82.8). James Pearce Jr.’s 25.1% pressure rate is the highest among all FBS defenders by about six points. Omarr Norman-Lott leads all FBS defensive tackles with a 22.8% pressure rate and 21% pass-rush win rate (minimum 90 pass-rushing snaps).
Georgia simply doesn’t have the weapons (82nd in receiving grade) and Carson Beck isn’t poised enough under pressure (28.7 passing grade, sixth worst in the FBS) to overcome another poor performance from the offensive line, making this matchup pivotal to determining the winner.
Predictions
Dalton: Georgia 16, Tennessee 13
This is an ugly game between two very similar teams. Georgia’s defense finds a way to grind out a tough road win with their season potentially on the line.
Georgia’s defense is able to slow down Dylan Sampson enough to make this a very low-scoring game. The Bulldogs pull it out and keep their season alive.
Kansas Jayhawks at No. 6 BYU Cougars (10:15 PM ET on ESPN)
Storyline to know: Can BYU keep the magic alive?
While Indiana’s been the biggest Cinderella story in college football this season, BYU is a close second. The Cougars have already doubled their preseason win total of 4.5 with a perfect 9-0 record. BYU pulled off its second miraculous comeback in three games, recently doing so in the Holy War against Utah. Down two with under two minutes left on its own nine-yard line, Jake Retzlaff led BYU on a 65-yard drive with the game-winning field goal at the buzzer.
The Cougars look to continue their undefeated season this week against Kansas. While their 3-6 record doesn’t look good on paper, the Jayhawks are not a team you should overlook. They most recently beat then-No. 17 Iowa State and in their six losses, they’ve lost by an average of five points.
Matchup to watch when Kansas has the ball (Dalton): Can Jalon Daniels avoid big mistakes?
For the most part, Kansas’ offense has played very well this season. It has scored at least 27 points in each of the team's last six games. The Jayhawks are actually tied with Boise State with the eighth-highest team offense grade in the nation. Their offensive line has played well. Devin Neal and Daniel Hishaw Jr. form an underrated running back tandem. The Jayhawks possess plenty of talent to scare opposing defenses.
What has hurt the team more than anything this season is turnovers from quarterback Jalon Daniels. His nine interceptions are the eighth-most in the Power Four. He’s also fumbled eight times this season, including two costly ones late in the team’s matchup with Kansas State.
Daniels has thrown just one interception in his last four games, but he’s come out of that stretch a bit lucky as he’s committed six turnover-worthy plays. His 5.5% turnover-worthy play rate is the third-highest this season among Power Four quarterbacks.
The Jayhawks’ offense can score on anybody, including BYU, when it doesn’t turn the ball over. BYU’s defense has a nose for the football as they are tied with Alabama for fifth in the FBS with 21 takeaways. The formula is simple. If Daniels protects the football, Kansas can win
Matchup to watch when BYU has the ball (Max): Can Kansas get after Jake Retzlaff?
Jake Retzlaff’s individual improvement has been one of the biggest catalysts for BYU’s massive jump as a team. After posting a 46.7 passing grade in 2023 (145th), he’s improved that to an 80.3 mark this season (26th). Retzlaff’s been especially effective when defenses don’t do anything to get after him, placing 12th in passing grade when kept clean (90.9) and sixth when there isn’t a blitz (90.5). In an exclusive interview with PFF, Retzlaff mentioned how he prefers when defenses don’t blitz because it’s much easier to identify what coverage they’re in.
His numbers do take a noticeable dip when defenses speed him up. Retzlaff’s 43.9 passing grade under pressure is 82nd in the FBS while his 57.6 passing grade against the blitz is 115th.
Kansas is 36th in pressure rate this year (34.6%) but only 94th in blitz rate (31.5%). The Jayhawks would be wise to blitz a lot more this week to throw Retzlaff off of his game.
Predictions
This game could go in any direction, but Kansas is better than its record indicates. If Jalon Daniels doesn’t turn the ball over, the Jayhawks match up well in this game.
Kansas has difficulty slowing down BYU’s offense and the Cougars continue their undefeated season.
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