• Alabama–LSU: Two top-15 SEC teams square off with the loser effectively eliminated from College Football Playoff contention.
• Georgia–Ole Miss: The Rebels try to keep their playoff hopes alive with a win over the Bulldogs.
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Estimated Reading Time: 31 minutes
The College Football Playoff race is starting to really take shape with just a few weeks left. Many schools are cementing their cases to be included in the first ever 12-team field while others are hoping to simply keep their hopes alive this week.
Here are the storylines to know, matchups to watch and predictions for seven of the biggest games this weekend.
No. 4 Miami (FL) Hurricanes at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (12 PM ET on ESPN)
Storyline to know: Haynes King's status
Georgia Tech lost its last two games to Notre Dame and Virginia Tech. It’s no coincidence that quarterback Haynes King was out due to an injury to his throwing shoulder in those two defeats.
Georgia Tech head coach Brent Key said that the redshirt junior is day-to-day. He is hopeful that King will return this week against Miami but can’t say that he is probable to do so. The Yellow Jackets’ chances of pulling off the upset likely hinge on his availability. After all, King threw the game-winning touchdown last year when Miami blew the game to Georgia Tech.
Matchup to watch when Georgia Tech has the ball (Dalton): Can Georgia Tech expose Miami’s vulnerable secondary?
Let’s start with the obvious — Georgia Tech can not win this game unless Haynes King starts. Backup Zach Pyron owns a 48.4 passing grade in his career and a 47.0 passing grade in his two starts this season in King’s stead.
If King returns, then Georgia Tech will regain the ability to attack downfield with their dynamic receivers, Eric Singleton Jr. and Malik Rutherford. King has earned a 90.7 passing grade on throws 10-plus yards downfield, which would be the second-best mark from a quarterback Miami has faced this season, behind Louisville’s Tyler Shough. It’s worth noting that Louisville scored 45 points in their game against Miami.
The Hurricanes’ secondary is the one obvious weakness on the team. Since Week 4, it ranks 98th in coverage grade and 93rd in EPA per pass allowed. Miami‘s keys to victory will be staying disciplined against Georgia Tech’s explosive play-action attack and disallowing their screen game to pick up first downs in the open field.
Matchup to watch when Miami has the ball (Max): Can Georgia Tech do anything to speed up Cam Ward?
Ward, the current betting favorite to win the Heisman Trophy, is perhaps the most poised and comfortable quarterback in college football. It’s incredibly difficult for defenses to rattle him, as it seems he almost nonchalantly throws for 350 yards per game. That’s especially true if defenses don’t do anything to speed him up, as he’ll simply take his time in the pocket if he’s given the opportunity. When defenses force him to get rid of the ball quickly, he’s still very good but not nearly as elite.
Cam Ward’s passing grades by situation:
| Situation | Passing grade (FBS rank) |
| Time to throw under 2.5 seconds | 82.4 (22nd) |
| Time to throw over 2.5 seconds | 90.9 (3rd) |
| Pressured | 60.1 (31st) |
| Not pressured | 92.6 (4th) |
| Blitzed | 79.1 (15th) |
| Not blitzed | 91.0 (4th) |
The problem for Georgia Tech is that it currently holds the eighth-worst pass-rush grade in all of college football (60.2) and blitzes at the 78th-highest rate in the country (33.6%). The Yellow Jackets have generated a pressure on just 28.3% of opposing dropbacks, the 99th best in America. Georgia Tech’s 3-3-5 scheme certainly doesn’t help with its pass rush, as there are only three defensive linemen on most plays. They’re also just 94th in coverage grade, so its defense is in a world of trouble if it doesn’t find some sort of pass rush.
Predictions
Dalton: Miami 45, Georgia Tech 28
If King plays, Georgia Tech at least stands a chance in a shootout. Even then, the Yellow Jackets likely don’t have an answer for Cam Ward and Miami’s arsenal of weapons.
Max: Miami 40, Georgia Tech 21
With a struggling secondary and almost a nonexistent pass rush, Cam Ward picks Georgia Tech apart. And with Haynes King’s status in question, the Yellow Jackets probably don’t have the ability to win in a shootout.
No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs at No. 16 Ole Miss Rebels (3:30 PM ET on ABC)
Storyline to know: Do or die for Ole Miss
In all likelihood, this game will determine whether or not Ole Miss makes the College Football Playoff. At 7-2, the Rebels cannot afford another loss if they want to make the 12-team field.
But if Ole Miss beats Georgia, it has a pretty clear path to a 10-2 record with just Florida and Mississippi State remaining on the schedule. The Gators (4-4) might have to start walk-on Aidan Warner at quarterback in that game with Graham Mertz out for the season and DJ Lagway dealing with a hamstring injury. The Bulldogs (2-7) are the second-worst Power Four team according to PFF’s power rankings and are also on a backup quarterback since starter Blake Shapen suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in September.
A 10-2 SEC team with a win over the Bulldogs is likely enough to make the playoff, making this the biggest game for the Rebels in years.
Matchup to watch when Ole Miss has the ball (Dalton): Will the Rebels’ new personnel combination continue to fuel their offense?
Coming into the season, it was thought that Ole Miss’ primary receiving weapons would be Tre Harris, Antwane Wells Jr. and Caden Prieskorn. While Harris certainly held up his end of the bargain with Biletnikoff-worthy numbers before his recent injury, the Rebels were dealing with a lack of productive options on the outside.
As they’ve dealt with Harris being out for the past two weeks, the focus has shifted to giving opportunities to other players. Wide receivers Jordan Watkins and Cayden Lee lead the team in receiving yards during that stretch while tight end Dae’Quan Wright is tied with Watkins for the team lead in targets and receptions.
These personnel changes have given the Rebels’ passing game the flexibility it needs to succeed. During their stretch of offensive struggles in Weeks 5 through 7, they became too reliant on Harris winning deep downfield. Over the past two weeks, they’ve seen an uptick in production when throwing intermediate passes that set up those downfield shots.
That shift in thinking better suits their quarterback, Jaxson Dart, who leads the nation with a 94.6 passing grade on intermediate throws. Sticking to that game plan would give them a better chance at bothering a Georgia defense that ranks just 70th in the FBS in coverage grade when facing intermediate throws.
The Bulldogs are notorious for disallowing deep shots downfield with their excellent secondary. Ole Miss needs to continue to prove it is not solely reliant on those types of plays.
Matchup to watch when Georgia has the ball (Max): Georgia’s offensive line against Ole Miss’ defensive line
This promises to be a heavyweight bout in the trenches. Georgia’s pass protection has been the only thing going right in its passing game lately. The Bulldogs have allowed a pressure at the sixth-lowest rate in the country (21.3%) and are eighth in pass-blocking grade (84.7). There’s also a stark difference between Carson Beck’s passing grades when kept clean versus when he’s under pressure. In a clean pocket, Beck’s 89.2 passing grade is 25th in the nation. When under duress, the redshirt senior’s passing grade nosedives to a 33.2 mark, 117th among FBS quarterbacks.
Meanwhile, Ole Miss has the second-highest-graded defensive line in college football (91.1). The Rebels lead the Power Four with 45 sacks while their 220 pressures are the most in the country. As good as Ole Miss is at getting after the quarterback, it’s arguably even better at defending the run. The Rebels lead the FBS with a 95.6 team run-defense grade, allowing 3.6 yards per attempt (3rd) and 0.7 yards before contact per attempt (1st).
That’s important as Georgia wants to establish the run to limit obvious passing situations. The Bulldogs are seventh in rushing grade (90.7) but only 67th in run-blocking grade (63.2). Beck’s 89.0 passing grade off of play action is over 20 points higher than when he’s in standard dropbacks (67.7).
If Ole Miss’ defensive line can take away the run and get after the quarterback like it’s done all season, the Rebels have an excellent chance at emerging victorious.
Predictions
Dalton: Georgia 24, Ole Miss 20
Ole Miss certainly has the talent to play with and beat a vulnerable Georgia team with a struggling quarterback. They need to get over the mental hurdle of doing it, though, and they may find little success in the trenches.
Georgia’s offensive line is able to protect Beck just enough while Kirby Smart’s defense creates significant problems up front for Ole Miss. The Rebels’ playoff hopes die in a game that should come down to the final seconds.
Michigan Wolverines at No. 8 Indiana Hoosiers (3:30 PM ET on CBS)
Storyline to know: Potential playoff-clincher for Indiana
That’s right. The Indiana Hoosiers can all but clinch a spot in the College Football Playoff with a win over Michigan on Saturday. If the Hoosiers beat the defending national champs, they’ll move to 10-0 on the season with games against Ohio State and Purdue remaining. Even if Indiana loses to the Buckeyes, an 11-1 record is most likely enough for the Hoosiers to get an at-large spot in the playoff.
It’s an incredible turnaround for head coach Curt Cignetti in just his first year with the program. Last year, Indiana finished with a 3-9 record. The Hoosiers also have never started 9-0 until this season and haven’t won 10 games in any season in program history.
Matchup to watch when Michigan has the ball (Dalton): Will Michigan’s run game find any breathing room against Indiana’s stout defensive line?
Across 2022 and 2023, Curt Cignetti’s James Madison defenses ranked tied for the eighth-best team run defense grade in the FBS at 93.7. Cignetti has continued that tradition this season as the Hoosiers currently rank sixth in the nation in run-defense grade.
Their defensive line, in particular, has been a stout unit that has frustrated opponents all season. Headlined by James Madison transfer Mikail Kamara and Kent State transfer CJ West, the Hoosiers have a stout unit up front that ranks among the nation’s elite in run defense. This defensive line gets penetration often up front, which has led to Indiana ranking third in the nation with a 3.41-yard average depth of tackle in run defense.
That defensive front will be of concern to Michigan, who is so reliant on running the ball and slowing games down. The Wolverines' run blocking has been spotty, though, and has often determined the outcome of their games.
In Michigan’s five wins this season, they have earned a 70.1 run-blocking grade. In the Wolverines' four losses, that figure drops to 60.2 with poor performances against Texas, Illinois and Oregon standing out the most. If the Wolverines can’t find a way to control Indiana’s defensive line in the run game, the Wolverines don’t have many other answers on offense.
Matchup to watch when Indiana has the ball (Max): Can Michigan hold up in coverage?
While Michigan’s defensive line has been the best in America, the same cannot be said for the second and third levels of its defense. As a unit, the Wolverines’ linebackers and defensive backs are 66th in PFF grade as a unit while their 74.6 team coverage grade is 90th. Outside of cornerback Will Johnson (who’s missed the last two games), Michigan lacks true difference-makers in the back seven of its defense.
Indiana’s offense has put opposing back-sevens in absolute blenders this season. Linebackers, corners and safeties have just a 48.8 combined coverage grade against the Hoosiers and a 58.2 overall grade.
It’s not even like Michigan’s defensive line dominating will guarantee defensive success either. Kurtis Rourke is the only signal-caller in America with 90-plus passing grades when kept clean, under pressure, when blitzed and when not blitzed. The Wolverines need their back seven to step up against an offense that’s executing at one of the highest levels in the country.
Predictions
Dalton: Indiana 31, Michigan 17
The Wolverines have a very narrow path to victory, and there is a clear blueprint to beating them. Indiana takes care of business and sets up a massive showdown with Ohio State.
The Hoosiers win 10 games for the first time in program history and all but secure a spot in the College Football Playoff, cementing themselves as one of the great comeback stories in recent memory.
No. 20 Colorado Buffaloes at Texas Tech Red Raiders (4 PM ET on FOX)
Storyline to know: Can Colorado continue to put pressure on BYU and Iowa State?
Even though they had a bye week last week, the Buffaloes were one of the biggest winners of Week 10. That’s because two of the three teams ahead of Colorado in the Big 12 standings, Iowa State and Kansas State, suffered conference losses. The Buffaloes subsequently leapfrogged the Wildcats in the Big 12 while the Cyclones now have the same conference record as Colorado.
The Buffaloes must now face the team that took down Iowa State in Week 10, Texas Tech. If Colorado can win this game and its three remaining, it has a great chance at being one of the two teams in the Big 12 championship with a playoff spot on the line.
Matchup to watch when Colorado has the ball (Dalton): Shedeur Sanders vs. Texas Tech’s porous secondary
Texas Tech held Rocco Becht and Iowa State to just 22 points last week, but that was primarily due to the Cyclones’ mistakes and inability to finish drives. The Red Raiders face an entirely different task in Shedeur Sanders and the Colorado offense this week.
The contrast could not be more stark, as Sanders continues to play at an elite level while the Red Raiders currently rank 126th in coverage grade and allow over 34 points per game. Texas Tech has allowed the most 15-plus yard completions in the nation this season.
That doesn’t bode well for Texas Tech, as Shedeur Sanders currently leads the FBS with a 95.5 passing grade on 10-plus yards throws. Of course, Travis Hunter is the primary recipient of those passes, as he has caught the seventh-most 10-plus yard passes among FBS wide receivers and ranks sixth in receiving grade on those targets.
Matchup to watch when Texas Tech has the ball (Max): Can Colorado get after Behren Morton?
While running back Tahj Brooks is the star of Texas Tech’s offense, it may surprise many to find out that the Red Raiders are only 105th in run rate this season (41.5%). Quarterback Behren Morton is relied on for nearly 60% of their plays, and he is a vastly better passer when operating from a clean pocket. His 86.3 passing grade when kept clean is over 50 points higher than when he’s under pressure (35.9). Luckily for him, Texas Tech has been very good at ensuring he’s not under duress often. The Red Raiders are ninth in pressure rate allowed (22.4%) and 13th in team pass-blocking grade (82.8).
The biggest weakness of Colorado’s defense this season has been its pass rush, placing just 88th in pass rush grade and 56th in pressure rate (32.3%). The Buffaloes try to make up for their below-average pass rush by blitzing at a top-25 rate in the country (42.9%), but Morton’s passing grade against the blitz (76.6) is actually higher than against a standard rush (72.1).
While Colorado’s secondary is more talented than Texas Tech’s group of weapons, the Buffaloes can only cover them for so long before somebody inevitably becomes open.
Predictions
Dalton: Colorado 38, Texas Tech 31
These two teams play in a lot of shootouts. Colorado may struggle to tackle Tahj Brooks, but the Red Raiders don’t have the versatile run schemes like Kansas State to bother the Buffaloes as much. Sanders and Hunter dominate en route to a win.
Max: Colorado 34, Texas Tech 28
Shedeur Sanders picks apart a very vulnerable Red Raider pass defense and the Buffaloes continue to put the pressure on the other top contenders for the Big 12 title race.
No. 11 Alabama Crimson Tide at No. 15 LSU Tigers (7:30 PM ET on ABC)
Storyline to know: Playoff elimination game
Simply put, the loser of this game is effectively eliminated from College Football Playoff contention. Both Alabama and LSU sport a 6-2 record and a third loss would likely be a death knell for their playoff hopes.
The Crimson Tide and the Tigers don’t play another currently-ranked team for the rest of the season. Therefore, it’d be very difficult for the loser of this game to claw its way back into the final 12.
Matchup to watch when LSU has the ball (Dalton): Can LSU find any production in their run game?
Garrett Nussmeier has had an excellent season in which he and his receivers have carried the Tigers offense to this point. However, LSU can be far too reliant on Nussmeier as its rushing attack has taken a major step back from last season. This isn’t surprising given the departure of Heisman winner Jayden Daniels, but the lack of production has made things much more difficult for the team’s offense.
LSU currently ranks 104th in the FBS in rushing grade and, perhaps more shockingly, places just 82nd in run-blocking grade. Outside of a dominant performance over South Alabama and a spark that Caden Durham gave them against South Carolina, the Tigers have struggled to put together an efficient ground game.
Several of the team’s offensive linemen, including star tackles Will Campbell and Emery Jones Jr., have seen declines in their run-blocking effectiveness. Opponents facing their rushing attack are far less stressed with Nussmeier at quarterback compared to Daniels.
This is likely to be the case for Alabama, as the Crimson Tide have played well against the run aside from the Tennessee game. The Crimson Tide rank seventh in the nation in run-defense grade and are allowing just 4.1 yards per designed carry on the season. In this same matchup last season, Daniels tore them to shreds on the ground, but LSU running backs gained just 43 yards on 13 carries.
Nussmeier is very good, but LSU asks a ton of him and his passing grade has dropped in each of the last four games. The Tigers
Matchup to watch when Alabama has the ball (Max): Can LSU force Jalen Milroe to be methodical?
Milroe is a big play waiting to happen thanks to his elite arm strength and mobility. He leads all Power Four quarterbacks with 12 rushing touchdowns while his 90.6 passing grade on 10-plus yard throws is 35th among all quarterbacks in America. On throws under 10 air yards, that figure drops to 84th (67.9 passing grade).
LSU has had issues with mobile quarterbacks in the past. South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers and Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed combined for five rushing touchdowns against LSU while Sellers ran for 107 yards total. The Tigers have also been prone to giving up big plays in coverage, placing 99th in explosive pass rate allowed (15.9%).
LSU will need to clean both areas up as Milroe has the ability to expose their defense more than any other quarterback it’s faced this season.
Predictions
LSU’s lack of balance on offense and inconsistency on defense allows the Crimson Tide to get a huge win on their way to the playoff. They need to find some semblance of balance to give their offense a chance to succeed.
Milroe has a big day against the Tigers and keeps the playoff hopes alive for the Crimson Tide while simultaneously killing LSU’s.
Washington Huskies at No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions (8 PM ET on Peacock)
Storyline to know: How does Penn State respond?
Penn State suffered a heartbreaking, yet predictable loss to Ohio State this past weekend by a 20-13 final score. It was the Nittany Lions’ eighth-straight loss to the Buckeyes and second straight in which it scored fewer than 14 points.
In past years, the loss to Ohio State all but killed Penn State’s hopes of making a four-team College Football Playoff. With the playoff tripling in size, it’s very possible that the Nittany Lions can still host a first-round game. That’s only if they can put this crushing defeat in the rearview mirror and win their final four games, starting with Washington this weekend. The Huskies have proven to be a dangerous team before and most recently beat USC, a team that took Penn State to overtime a month ago.
Matchup to watch when Washington has the ball (Dalton): Penn State’s coverage unit vs. Will Rogers’ quick release and wide receivers
The obvious matchup here would be to put Washington’s struggling offensive line against Penn State’s ferocious pass rush. However, Will Rogers’ 2.48-second average time to throw, the seventh-lowest in the Power Four, and their dynamic receivers give the Huskies a chance to succeed offensively. It’s a formula that has worked at times, notably in the victory over Michigan and their terrific pass rush.
The Huskies will need to use that same strategy to avoid Penn State’s pressure up front. Not only has Rogers been quick to release the football, but he has also been very effective in doing so. Rogers’ 84.1 passing grade when releasing the ball in under 2.5 seconds is the eighth-best mark in the Power Four this season. Penn State ranks 15th in coverage grade for the year but just 54th when facing throws released that quickly.
If Rogers is able to make his reads and throws quickly enough, he has a group of dynamic receivers to work with. Washington possesses the sixth-best receiving grade in the country. That production is led by their main outside threat Denzel Boston and slot receiver Giles Jackson. Those two have combined to catch 108 passes totaling 1,279 yards and 11 touchdowns.
Penn State will need to stay tight in coverage early in plays and tackle well in space in order to slow down the Huskies through the air.
Matchup to watch when Penn State has the ball (Max): Can Penn State’s receivers consistently get open?
The Nittany Lions’ loss against Ohio State exposed the biggest problem with their roster: their lack of talent at wide receiver. The Buckeyes focused on taking away superstar tight end Tyler Warren by playing a lot of two-high looks and dared Penn State to beat them on the perimeter with their wideouts facing one-on-one coverage down the sidelines. Their plan worked beautifully, as Nittany Lion wideouts combined for three catches for 49 yards. On the season, Penn State’s wide receivers have the 53rd-best receiving grade in the country.
Washington’s 91.6 coverage grade is ninth in the nation, one spot ahead of Ohio State. The Huskies also lead the Power Four in coverage grade when tight ends are targeted (90.6), placing even more pressure on Penn State’s wideouts to succeed. While Washington’s secondary has excelled, it doesn’t nearly have the superstars back there that the Buckeyes have, so it’ll be interesting to see if Penn State’s weapons can perform better this week.
Predictions
Dalton: Penn State 27, Washington 19
Penn State gets a good opportunity to bounce back against a Washington offense that doesn’t have much room for error.
Max: Penn State 31, Washington 17
Penn State’s defense excels in its Whiteout game and gets its season back on track.
No. 9 BYU Cougars at Utah Utes (10:15 PM ET on ESPN)
Storyline to know: Reigniting the Holy War
While conference realignment killed many historic rivalries, it also rebirthed some previously extinct ones.
For the first time since 2010, BYU and Utah are members of the same conference which means the Holy War will once again become an annual rivalry. The two have only played nine times over the last 13 years since they both left the Mountain West, despite being each other’s archrival. At 8-0, the Cougars are trying to further establish themselves as the favorite in the Big 12 while the Utes (4-4) need to win two of their final four games to make a bowl game.
Matchup to watch when BYU has the ball (Dalton): Jake Retzlaff vs. Utah’s man coverage
Jake Retzlaff has so far been the nation’s most improved quarterback. His production has skyrocketed across the board, and he has specialized in tearing apart zone coverages, especially down the middle of the field.
He faces a new challenge, though, from rival Utah, one of the most prolific teams in terms of its usage of man coverage. The Utes are notorious for their high usage of Cover 1. Beating man coverage such as this is an area where Retzlaff has played with a bit less consistency this season.
Retzlaff has earned a mediocre 63.8 passing versus man coverage this season. He has also run the ball reasonably well in these situations as the Cougars are suitable for a mobile quarterback. Utah hasn’t been great when it has utilized man coverage, though, ranking just 87th in the FBS in coverage grade for the season.
If Retzlaff and wide receivers Chase Roberts and Darius Lassiter can win those one-on-one battles against Utah’s talented cornerback group, the Cougars could run away with this game.
Matchup to watch when Utah has the ball (Max): Micah Bernard and Utah’s offensive line against BYU’s run defense
The Utes own the worst passing grade in the Power Four (47.0) and they benched true freshman Isaac Wilson for sophomore Brandon Rose in the loss to Houston a couple of weeks ago. Head coach Kyle Whittingham said he’s decided who will start this week against BYU, but won’t announce it until game time. Regardless of who’s under center for Utah, they’ll have to rely on running back Micah Bernard to carry the offensive load. His 786 rushing yards are a top-25 mark in the FBS while tying for 17th in forced missed tackle rate (34%). It also helps that Utah’s 79.7 run-blocking grade is fourth in the Power Four while right tackle Spencer Fano’s 91.5 run-blocking grade is the highest among any offensive lineman in the country.
BYU’s run defense has been about average this year, placing 37th in team run-defense grade but just 89th in yards per attempt allowed (5.9). The Cougars have allowed a 100-yard rusher in back-to-back games in Oklahoma State’s Ollie Gordon II and UCF’s RJ Harvey. Without much of a passing game to worry about though, BYU should stack the box and focus on forcing either Isaac Wilson or Brandon Rose to win with his arm.
Predictions
BYU’s advantage at quarterback and its physical defense carry the team to a massive road win.
The Cougars win the Holy War and continue their undefeated campaign thanks to a suffocating pass defense.
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