• Ohio State–Penn State: Two top-five teams meet in one of the biggest games of the season.
• Pittsburgh–SMU: These top-20 teams meet with the winner becoming the biggest challenger to Miami and Clemson in the ACC.
• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all of our in-season fantasy tools, including weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer and more. Sign up now!
Estimated Reading Time: 31 minutes
We're entering November, the final month of the college football regular season. It’s the final few weeks for schools to prove that they belong in the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff.
Ahead of a pivotal Week 10, here are the storylines to know, matchups to watch and predictions for nine of the biggest games this weekend.
No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes at No. 3 Penn State Nittany Lions (12 PM ET on FOX)
Storyline to know: Drew Allar's health
The Nittany Lions enter their biggest game of the season with a question mark on who will be under center for them. Star quarterback Drew Allar injured his left knee in the win over Wisconsin this past Saturday and didn’t return to the game. Head coach James Franklin said that he expects Allar to be a game-time decision on Saturday.
If the junior is unable to go, Beau Pribula will start for Penn State. The redshirt sophomore turned in an inspiring performance in relief of Allar on Saturday, posting an 87.9 passing grade while completing 84.6% of his attempts. Still, the Nittany Lions’ chances of beating the Buckeyes likely hinges on Allar’s availability for Saturday.
Matchup to watch when Penn State has the ball (Dalton): How long will it take Penn State to find a rhythm?
Under the leadership of new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, Penn State has had a resurgence with a creative offense that has maximized its personnel. The Nittany Lions rank seventh in the FBS in offensive grade, but there has been one pitfall that has put the team in danger this season.
The Nittany Lions have gotten off to some slow starts this season. They rank 30th in the nation in offensive grade in the first quarter of games while they rank 50th in EPA per play. That’s in reasonably stark contrast to the rest of the game when they rank seventh in offensive grade and fifth in EPA per play. The team has scored just 24 points in seven first quarters this season, including just three points in their last three games.
Meanwhile, Ohio State has an elite defense that generally gets off to excellent starts. The Buckeyes possess the nation’s highest-graded defense in the first half of games this season. The interesting part is that they rank just 46th in that same category after halftime. They have played in some blowouts this season, which likely tilts the numbers toward the backups who have played in those moments, but it’s noteworthy considering this matchup.
It seems that Penn State uses a somewhat conservative approach early in games in order for Kotelnicki to figure out the adjustments he needs to make. While they have been throwing more often in recent games early on, the Nittany Lions’ average depth of target in the first quarter sits at just 6.2 yards compared to 10.1 for the rest of the game. That’s the 12th-lowest mark in the nation while they have also attempted just one deep pass in the first quarter as well.
Penn State may be well served to get a little more aggressive in order to avoid their slow-starting tendencies.
Matchup to watch when Ohio State has the ball (Max): Can a rebuilt offensive line hold up?
Ohio State’s offensive line suffered a devastating blow in the loss to Oregon when left tackle and projected top-50 pick Josh Simmons suffered a season-ending knee injury. His replacement, Zen Michalski, struggled mightily in relief of him. His 15.6 pass-blocking grade across the last two games is the seventh-worst among FBS tackles. Then, Michalski was carted off in the win over Nebraska, putting his availability in doubt for Saturday. The Buckeyes responded by moving left guard Donovan Jackson to left tackle and inserting sophomore Luke Montgomery at left guard.
If Jackson remains at left tackle, it’ll be interesting to see how he’ll handle two speedy edge defenders in Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton, the latter of whom is also questionable for Saturday with his own injury. Penn State’s defense is ninth in pass-rush win rate (47%) and is among the 15 best in America in pass-rush grade (80.4) and pressure rate (38.3%).
Making matters worse for the Buckeyes is the fact that Will Howard owns the nation’s sixth-worst passing grade under pressure (28.4). The Nittany Lions are also 17th in run-defense grade and are facing an Ohio State backfield that’s coming off its worst two performances of the season.
Penn State’s chances of pulling off the upset likely depend on its defensive line to dominate the Buckeyes’ beat-up offensive line.
Predictions
Dalton: Ohio State 19, Penn State 16
Ohio State’s defense makes the difference in a physical game as Allar’s health remains in question. Whichever team runs the ball more effectively is likely to come away victorious.
Max: Penn State 24, Ohio State 23
My prediction hinges on Drew Allar’s health. If he’s out or not close to 100 percent, Ohio State will win. If he’s good to go, Penn State could win in a close one thanks to its defensive front dominating.
Duke Blue Devils at No. 5 Miami (FL) Hurricanes (12 PM ET on ABC)
Storyline to know: Miami’s most difficult game the rest of the season
The Hurricanes are 8-0 and ranked inside the top five for the first time in seven years. That perfect record hasn’t come without some close calls though. Miami’s games against Virginia Tech, California and Louisville all went down to the wire and were decided by one possession.
Those are three of the four teams the Hurricanes have played that rank inside the top-45 of PFF’s power rankings. Duke is 30th in that same ranking, easily the highest-ranked team Miami has left on its regular season schedule. The Blue Devils are 6-2 for the first time in nine years.
Matchup to watch when Miami has the ball (Dalton): Can Manny Diaz force Cam Ward into turnovers?
Head coach Manny Diaz has brought his brand of hyper-aggressive defense to the Blue Devils and so far, it has paid off with a surprisingly good season. One of the keys to staying in a game against this Miami team is forcing Cam Ward into mistakes.
On the surface, Ward has done a better job avoiding those mistakes as he’s currently running a career-low 2.6% turnover-worthy play rate. However, if we just look at his games against Power Five opponents, that number jumps to 3.3%, which is nearly identical to what he has posted in his other four college seasons.
Duke currently owns the fourth-best coverage grade in the country while leading the Power Five in takeaways. The Blue Devils have forced opponents into 21 turnover-worthy plays in their eight games. Part of what makes Diaz’s defense so difficult to deal with is his high rate of blitzes. Only 11 Power Five teams run a higher pass blitz rate than Duke. Opposing quarterbacks have earned a 50.6 passing grade with one big-time throw and nine turnover-worthy plays against Duke blitzes.
Perhaps this approach can at least keep them in this game as Cam Ward has been otherworldly against standard rushes, but more human when facing blitzes. His average depth of target and time to throw fall significantly when he faces a blitz. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing for Ward as he has improved at finding hot routes and beating the blitz with his arm. However, that has also resulted in a far lower big-time throw rate.
Duke has run the second-most zone blitzes in the country behind Pittsburgh. If the Blue Devils can execute in coverage behind those blitzes as they have all season, they may give themselves a chance to keep Ward in check.
Matchup to watch when Duke has the ball (Max): Can Duke protect Maalik Murphy?
While Duke’s had its fair share of offensive struggles this year, it has been able to rely on its offensive line to protect the quarterback. The Blue Devils have only allowed a sack/hit on 3.4% of their pass-blocking snaps, the ninth-lowest rate in college football. Their 16% pressure rate allowed is 12th in the nation as well. Maalik Murphy isn’t a very mobile quarterback so he performs far better in a clean pocket (83.4 PFF grade) than when he’s under pressure (45.9 grade).
The issue for Duke is that Miami leads the nation in pressure rate (43%) and is second in pass rush win rate (52.1%). The Hurricanes have future NFL players all along their defensive line like Tyler Baron, Reuben Bain Jr. and Simeon Barrow Jr.. Miami has shown some vulnerabilities in their secondary in recent weeks, so Murphy will have opportunities to win downfield as long as his offensive line gives him time.
It should be noted that Murphy’s 2.20-second average time to throw is the fastest in the nation this year, which takes a lot of the pressure off of the offensive line. Still, this matchup is critical for the Blue Devils to create explosives down the field like other offenses have been able to against Miami.
Predictions
Duke needs Maalik Murphy to play as well as he did last week, if not better. If he doesn’t give the Blue Devils his best game of the year against a vulnerable Miami secondary, the Hurricanes will likely pull away.
The Blue Devils’ defense keeps it interesting early but it’s impossible for Duke to hold Cam Ward down for too long if its offense doesn’t perform.
No. 19 Ole Miss Rebels at Arkansas Razorbacks (12 PM ET on ESPN)
Storyline to know: Ole Miss with its back against the wall
Ole Miss entered the year as the No. 6 team in the country and was viewed as a top contender to win the SEC, let alone make a 12-team College Football Playoff. A couple of months into the season, the Rebels are 6-2 and need to win out to make the playoff.
While next week’s game against Georgia is the ultimate test, Ole Miss cannot overlook this road game at Arkansas. The Razorbacks just missed out on being in my top-25 this week and beat current-No. 7 Tennessee at home just a few weeks ago.
Matchup to watch when Ole Miss has the ball (Dalton): Ole Miss’ offensive line vs. Arkansas’ defensive line
Since conference play started in Week 5, the Rebels’ offense simply hasn’t played as well as they did against their non-conference opponents. The explosive plays have been missing through the air and they haven’t been able to open holes on the ground.
The team’s offensive line was projected as its biggest weakness in the preseason, but over their last four games, it has not been able to dominate in any fashion.
Ole Miss Offensive line since Week 5:
| Overall Grade | 127th |
| Pass Blocking Grade | 109th |
| Pressure % | 128th |
| Run Blocking Grade | 125th |
| Impact Run Block % | 128th |
Ole Miss’ offensive line is not producing in any facet of the game right now. It was better in pass protection last week against Oklahoma but still could not open any holes in the run game. Since Week 5, the Rebels have allowed the seventh-highest rate of pressure in pass protection. They also own the seventh-lowest impact run block percentage, which is the rate of positively graded run blocks compared to their total run snap.
The Razorbacks’ defensive line is the foundation of their defense. It’s a top 20 unit according to PFF’s overall grade and they own the ninth-best run-defense grade in the nation at 82.9. Players like edge defender Landon Jackson and defensive tackle Eric Gregory should see this as a favorable matchup for the Arkansas defense.
Matchup to watch when Arkansas has the ball (Max): Can Ole Miss’ front seven continue to dominate?
Ole Miss has had the best front-seven in college football this season. The Rebels’ defensive line/linebackers have a 92.6 grade as a unit, the highest in the FBS. Ole Miss leads the nation in run-defense grade (96.7), tackling grade (90.5) and is fifth in pass-rush grade (84.2). The Rebels are second in yards per carry allowed (3.3) and sixth in pressure rate (40%). Recently, linebacker Chris Paul Jr. and interior defender Walter Nolen were named to PFF’s midseason All-American team.
Arkansas’ rushing attack is dangerous. Running back Ja’Quinden Jackson is eighth among FBS tailbacks with a 90.1 rushing grade while quarterback Taylen Green is fourth among Power Four signal-callers with 511 yards on the ground. Green has also been excellent when under duress this year, placing sixth in the FBS with a 77.1 grade under pressure. It should be noted that Jackson is doubtful for Saturday’s contest after missing last week against Mississippi State with a re-aggravated ankle injury. Braylen Russell would start in his stead if he’s indeed out and has been impressive this year, averaging seven yards per carry on 43 attempts.
Ole Miss will need its elite front seven to continue performing at a high level to avoid an upset from the Razorbacks.
Predictions
Dalton: Arkansas 27, Ole Miss 24
The Rebels offense has underwhelmed for the entirety of SEC play. Arkansas is reasonably good at preventing deep shots despite its mediocre coverage grade. If Taylen Green can avoid turnovers, the Razorbacks can pull off the upset.
Jaxson Dart and Tre Harris thrive against a vulnerable Arkansas secondary while the front seven is able to keep the Razorbacks in check. Ole Miss keeps its playoff hopes alive, for one more week at least.
No. 1 Oregon Ducks at Michigan Wolverines (3:30 PM ET on CBS)
Storyline to know: The defending champs against the new No. 1
Saturday’s matchup between Oregon and Michigan pits the national champions from last season against a program with a great chance at winning its first national title.
While the Wolverines are the defending champs, they’ve looked like a shell of their prior selves. Michigan already has three losses after losing just three games in the previous three seasons combined. And two of those three losses came in the College Football Playoff.
Oregon meanwhile is ranked No. 1 for the first time since 2012, Chip Kelly’s final year as head coach. After a slow start to the season, the Ducks are clicking in all three phases and have beaten three currently-ranked teams in Ohio State, Boise State and Illinois.
Still, Oregon needs to be careful as Michigan still has an elite defense and the Big House is an incredibly difficult environment for visiting teams to play in.
Matchup to watch when Michigan has the ball (Dalton): Can Davis Warren keep the momentum going?
The Wolverines turned back to their opening-day starting quarterback, Davis Warren, against Michigan State last week and had arguably their most productive passing day of the season.
However, there is a caveat as it relates to the level of production. Warren and Alex Orji, who was used as a changeup in the run game, combined for an 87.3 overall grade last week. That is the highest by Michigan quarterbacks in a game this season. The passing is still underwhelming, though, as Warren threw just 20 passes totaling 120 yards and a touchdown. Running back Donovan Edwards also threw a touchdown on a trick play.
Warren made some nice plays on the move last week, but the offensive plan remains the same for Michigan: grind out first downs in the run game, find Colston Loveland through the air and use trick plays to change the momentum when needed. Michigan’s offense is what it is at this point in the season. The Wolverines will need to execute at a near-perfect level to beat Oregon.
Matchup to watch when Oregon has the ball (Max): Will Oregon’s offensive line hold up?
Oregon owns a top-25 passing, rushing and receiving grade in college football. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel is the current betting favorite to win the Heisman Trophy at (+260) according to DraftKings Sportsbook. By all accounts, the Ducks have elite players at the skill positions.
The one area offensively where Oregon’s had some issues is along the offensive line. The Ducks’ front five has been just average in the national landscape, placing 69th in offensive line grade (68.2). The biggest issue has been along the interior. Oregon’s tackle duo of Josh Conerly Jr. and Ajani Cornelius is 23rd in the FBS in PFF grade. The interior three of Marcus Harper II, Iapanai Laloulu and Nishad Strother is just 110th in that same metric.
That could be a huge issue against Michigan’s defensive line, in particular the defensive tackle duo of Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant. Each is currently a top-10 prospect on PFF’s 2025 NFL Draft big board and Graham leads all Power Four interior defenders with an 89.1 grade this season. Michigan’s defensive line as a whole is the highest-graded in college football (92.1), leading the nation in pass-rush grade (91.6) and tying for second in run-defense grade (90.3).
If Oregon’s offensive line does its job, Dillon Gabriel and his stable of weapons could tee off on Michigan’s depleted secondary. The Wolverines are just 79th in team coverage grade and superstar cornerback Will Johnson is questionable for Saturday after missing last week against Michigan State with a lower-leg injury.
If Michigan wants any chance to pull off the massive upset at home, it needs to make this game as low-scoring as possible. To do that, the Wolverines’ elite defensive line needs to be the most dominant unit on the field against what’s been an average Oregon offensive line.
Predictions
Dalton: Oregon 34, Michigan 13
Oregon’s formula is simple in this game. Don’t let Michigan dominate on the ground, and get the ball out of Dillon Gabriel’s hands quickly. The Ducks take care of business.
If Michigan had any sort of a competent passing game, it would have a shot at pulling off this upset. Unfortunately for the Wolverines defensive line, it doesn’t and Oregon ultimately prevails on the road.
No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs vs. Florida Gators (3:30 PM ET on ABC)
Storyline to know: Can Florida prove it’s moving in the right direction?
There was a lot of pessimism about the Florida Gators entering the season. The program endured three straight losing campaigns entering 2024, the first time that’s occurred since the 1940’s. Head coach Billy Napier entered the year on one of the hottest seats in America and needed to prove his legitimacy against the most brutal schedule in college football.
So far, it’s been alright for the Gators. They’re currently 4-3 and are coming off a close overtime loss to current-No. 7 Tennessee and a dominant 28-point win over Kentucky. DJ Lagway has shown why he was the highest-rated quarterback recruit in 2024, leading all true freshmen with a 78.5 passing grade.
Now is the time for Napier and Florida to further show that they can hang with the big boys in the SEC. Their next four games are against No. 2 Georgia in the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, a road trip to No. 6 Texas before hosting No. 16 LSU and No. 19 Ole Miss at home. Winning one of those games is pretty much a priority since that coupled with a win over a struggling Florida State team at the end of the year would guarantee Florida a bowl game and might buy Napier another year at the helm. Even if they don’t beat Georgia on Saturday, even looking competitive against the national championship favorite would go a long way in showing this program is on an upward trajectory.
Matchup to watch when Georgia has the ball (Dalton): Florida’s secondary faces its first big test since Week 1
The Gators' much-maligned secondary has held things together reasonably well as they’ve faced a string of opponents with struggling passing attacks. This week, they face Carson Beck in their biggest test since being shredded by Cam Ward in Week 1.
Beck has had a bit of a turbulent season, but his struggles have mostly come against Texas and Alabama, two of the elite coverage units in college football. Despite its recent run, Florida still ranks just 78th in coverage grade for the year. That ranking drops to 115th if we remove a dominant effort over FCS-level Samford.
Florida’s biggest challenge will be containing the Bulldogs when they run play-action. Beck owns the Power Five’s 9th-best play action passing grade. Many of his best throws and the team’s biggest plays come when they make linebackers and safeties hesitate before getting to their coverage landmarks.
Meanwhile, Florida has earned just a 58.7 coverage grade against its Power Four opponents when play-action is involved. This game will be the litmus test for whether their secondary has improved at all or if they are just incapable of slowing down elite quarterbacks.
Matchup to watch when Florida has the ball (Max): DJ Lagway against Kirby Smart who’s had two weeks of preparation
It’s hard not to be excited about DJ Lagway if you’re a Florida fan or just a college football fan in general. The former No. 3 overall recruit in the 2024 class has taken over for the injured Graham Mertz and has performed very admirably, tossing nine big-time throws compared to two turnover-worthy plays. He has ridiculous arm talent with the ability to deliver to any part of the field with ease. It’s completely unlocked pages of the Gators’ playbook that just weren’t available before due to Mertz’s conservative playstyle.
He now faces arguably the sport’s best defensive mind in Georgia head coach Kirby Smart who’s now had two weeks to prepare for him coming off the bye week. Georgia’s sixth among Power Four schools in blitz rate (48%) and stunt rate (39.5%), which help speed opposing quarterbacks up and confuse them. The Bulldogs had Texas’ Quinn Ewers in an absolute blender when they faced him two weeks ago, as he committed seven turnover-worthy plays. That figure is tied for the most by a Power Five quarterback in the last five years.
Lagway has done well against the blitz this year, placing eighth among FBS quarterbacks with an 86.6 passing grade when blitzed. He’s been similarly impressive against stunts with an 80.3 passing grade that’s 24th in America.
If the true freshman is truly going to do the impossible and vanquish Kirby Smart, he’ll likely need to follow Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe’s blueprint from when he beat Georgia. Both quarterbacks share many similarities in that they want to attack downfield with their bazooka right arms. Milroe was forced to be much more conservative in that game and took what was there while uncorking the deep ball when it was warranted. For a gunslinger like Lagway, patience will be key in this game and it will be paramount to strike only when the opportunity is there, rather than forcing it and playing right into Smart’s hands.
Predictions
Dalton: Georgia 34, Florida 20
It’s simply too hard to imagine Lagway beating this Kirby Smart-led defense that shut down Texas in their previous game. Georgia takes care of business.
While Lagway is supremely talented and has a bright future, he’s not quite ready for this kind of game just yet. Smart takes advantage of his inexperience while Carson Beck shines.
Texas Tech Red Raiders at No. 11 Iowa State Cyclones (3:30 PM ET on ESPN)
Storyline to know: Can Iowa State keep up this historic start?
The Cyclones have been one of the biggest surprises in college football this season. After starting the year unranked, Iowa State is now in the top 15 with its first 7-0 start since 1938, a year that occurred during the Great Depression.
If the Cyclones beat Texas Tech, it’ll be the first 8-0 start in school history and would move the program one step closer to playing in the Big 12 Championship Game and securing a College Football Playoff spot.
Matchup to watch when Iowa State has the ball (Dalton): Rocco Becht’s efficiency over the middle vs. Texas Tech’s struggling coverage unit
Texas Tech has found itself in a bunch of shootouts this year because it has been unable to stop teams through the air. The Red Raiders currently possess the fourth-lowest coverage grade in the Power Four while also allowing the most passing yards and explosive plays.
That’s music to the ears of Rocco Becht and his receivers as they have been the driving force. Aside from a couple of bad turnovers against Iowa and UCF, Becht has had another fine season. With the help of premier wide receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, Becht has been able to succeed, especially when throwing the ball over the middle of the field.
Rocco Becht on throws over middle third of the field:
| Passing Grade | 91.7 |
| Big Time Throws | 4 |
| Turnover Worthy Plays | 0 |
| Adjusted Comp. % | 84.0% |
| Yards per Attempt | 13.1 |
Becht has been incredibly efficient when throwing down the middle of the field. His 91.7 passing grade shown above is the 6th-best mark in the Power Four. He also ranks inside the top 12 in adjusted completion percentage and yards per attempt.
Whether he throws a slant as part of an RPO or a deep shot down the seam, many of Becht’s biggest plays this season have come when attacking the middle of the field. This should be a primary focus for a Texas Tech defense that has struggled to contain big plays all season.
Matchup to watch when Texas Tech has the ball (Max): Can Iowa State slow down Tahj Brooks?
Tahj Brooks isn’t just the star of Texas Tech’s offense, he is the offense. The fifth-year senior has 179 carries this season, second to only Omarion Hampton in college football. He tallied 921 yards on those attempts and moved the chains 52 times this year, the fourth-most in the country. Brooks is a human bowling ball at 5-foot-10, 230 pounds and often inflicts more pain on would-be tacklers than they do on him.
Iowa State defensive coordinator Jon Heacock’s patented 3-3-5 defense isn’t necessarily designed to stop the run with only three defensive linemen on the field, and that’s been a significant issue for the Cyclones this season. Iowa State is 108th in team run-defense grade and is 116th in yards per attempt allowed (5.7). 2.3 of those yards come before contact, the fourth-most in the Power Four. If the Cyclones allow Brooks to get a full head of steam downhill, it could be a long day for their defense.
Stopping the run becomes even more critical for Iowa State when there’s a chance that Texas Tech quarterback Behren Morton could be out with an injury to his non-throwing shoulder, leaving true freshman Will Hammond in line to start.
Predictions
Dalton: Iowa State 38, Texas Tech 28
Both teams will find points in this game, but Iowa State has distinct passing game advantages on both sides of the ball. Tahj Brooks won’t be able to single-handedly knock off the Cyclones.
Max: Iowa State 34, Texas Tech 21
While Brooks does all he can to keep the Red Raiders in this game, Rocco Becht and his uber-talented pass catchers are too much for Texas Tech’s struggling secondary to handle.
No. 10 Texas A&M Aggies at South Carolina Gamecocks (7:30 PM ET on ABC)
Storyline to know: Can Texas A&M avoid slipping up now that it controls its destiny?
With its win over LSU on Saturday, Texas A&M now has sole possession of first place in the SEC. If the Aggies can win their remaining regular season games, they’ll book a trip to Atlanta and clinch a spot in the College Football Playoff.
That won’t be easy though, especially considering what’s on deck this weekend. Texas A&M travels to a South Carolina team that’s in the top 30 of PFF’s power rankings. The Aggies also must figure out who their quarterback will be after backup Marcel Reed provided a spark that ignited Texas A&M’s offense in the victory over LSU following Conner Weigman’s struggles.
Matchup to watch when Texas A&M has the ball (Dalton): Texas A&M’s run game vs. South Carolina’s run defense
Assuming Marcel Reed is now their starting quarterback after saving the team’s victory over LSU last week, the Aggies have conceded the fact that they will be deploying a run-centric offense for the rest of the year. The combination of Reed, Le’Veon Moss, and Amari Daniels gives the team the best chance to win games.
This may be the right week to lean into that approach. South Carolina’s pass defense is elite. They rank inside the top three in the FBS in pass-rush and coverage grade, so the Aggies would be wise not to gamble through the air.
The Gamecocks have been less consistent against the run. While they are tied for 29th in the nation in run defense grade, they have had three games where they have graded under 63.0 in run defense. Those games accounted for two of their three losses this season. When they have struggled, it has been when teams run effectively between the tackles and when they pick up the pace between plays.
The Aggies don’t run their offense at a particularly fast pace, but they do rank inside the top 15 in rushing grade, run blocking grade, EPA per play when rushing between the tackles.
Matchup to watch when South Carolina has the ball (Max): South Carolina’s offensive line against Texas A&M’s defensive line
The Aggies have a clear advantage in the trenches when the Gamecocks have the ball. Just like last year, South Carolina’s offensive line has struggled mightily this season. Its front five has a 58.1 PFF grade as a unit which places the Gamecocks 115th among FBS offensive lines. South Carolina’s given up a pressure on 42.3% of dropbacks this year, the third-worst rate in the Power Four.
Texas A&M’s defensive line is 12th in PFF grade this year. Three Aggie defensive linemen are currently top-100 prospects on PFF’s 2025 NFL Draft big board in Nic Scourton, Shemar Stewart and Shemar Turner. Scourton in particular is the top edge defender on our big board. The Aggies are seventh in team run-defense grade and 31st in pass-rush grade this season.
Making matters worse for the Gamecocks is how much LaNorris Sellers has struggled under duress this season. His 28.7 passing grade under pressure is 132nd among 141 qualifying quarterbacks.
Predictions
Dalton: Texas A&M 24, South Carolina 20
This game comes down to turnovers and who succeeds when their quarterback runs the ball. We’ve yet to see LaNorris Sellers come through in a big spot.
Max: Texas A&M 20, South Carolina 17
This game could get ugly with how good these two defenses are and each side’s offensive issues. Texas A&M barely squeaks out a road win and moves one step closer to the SEC title game.
Louisville Cardinals at No. 11 Clemson Tigers (7:30 PM ET on ESPN)
Storyline to know: Clemson’s toughest opponent since Week 1
While Clemson’s rattled off six-straight victories since its season-opening 34-3 loss to Georgia, it hasn’t quite come against the stiffest competition. None of the Tigers’ six wins have come over a team that’s even in the top 55 of PFF’s power rankings.
Clemson has an opportunity to help prove its legitimacy this week against Louisville, the No. 34 team in that power ranking. The Cardinals lost by just seven points to No. 5 Miami (FL) a couple of weeks ago, proving they can hang with the ACC’s elite.
Matchup to watch when Clemson has the ball (Dalton): Cade Klubnik vs. Louisville’s inconsistent secondary
After a dismal first game of the season against Georgia, Cade Klubnik and the Clemson offense have turned things around using a greater emphasis on working the ball downfield.
Last season, Klubnik threw just 28.6% of his passes beyond 10 air yards with a 73.1 passing grade. This year, that rate is up to 36.2% with a 94.0 passing grade that is the fourth-best mark in the nation. His footwork has improved, though still not perfect, from last season and the game has clearly slowed down for him in his second year as a starter.
Louisville has had issues defending vertical passes all season. Only two teams in the Power Five have a lower coverage grade against 10-plus yard throws than Louisville’s 28.2 mark. The Cardinals have allowed the ninth-highest percentage of explosive plays on those throws among the 70 Power Five teams. These problems are only compounded by the fact that the Cardinals rank 68th in the FBS in pass-rush grade over the past five weeks.
If those trends hold, Klubnik could be in for another big day.
Matchup to watch when Louisville has the ball (Max): Can Clemson’s pass rush get to Tyler Shough?
Shough has been one of the most improved quarterbacks in college football this season, improving his passing grade to a 90.1 mark this year following a 57.9 grade at Texas Tech in 2023. The biggest reason for that jump is how good the redshirt senior has been when he has time in the pocket. His 92.4 passing grade when kept clean trails only Jaxson Dart and Shedeur Sanders among FBS signal-callers, as Shough has 12 big-time throws compared to just one turnover-worthy play on such plays.
When under pressure, Shough has a 62.3 passing grade with as many turnover-worthy plays (six) as big-time throws. Louisville’s offensive line has been below-average in protecting the quarterback this year, playing 111th in pressure rate allowed (36.4%).
Fortunately for the Cardinals, Clemson’s pass rush hasn’t been nearly as formidable as it’s been in past years. The Tigers are currently 61st in pass-rush grade (70.4) after placing 20th and fifth in the last two seasons. They’ve only pressured the quarterback on 29.3% of their dropbacks this year, 83rd in the FBS. Only one defensive lineman, edge defender T.J. Parker, has a pass-rushing grade above a 70 mark.
If Shough has time in the pocket, he should be able to find Louisville’s uber-talented pass catchers like Ja’Corey Brooks and Chris Bell. The Cardinals are currently eighth in team receiving grade this season. Clemson’s secondary is strong (35th best coverage grade), but it’ll need some help up front to disrupt Shough’s rhythm.
Predictions
Dalton: Clemson 34 Louisville 24
Klubnik has been hot and the Louisville secondary has not. Clemson should have enough advantages in this game to get a home win.
Max: Clemson 31, Louisville 27
In a matchup between two vastly improved quarterbacks, Cade Klubnik and the Tigers win in a close one.
No. 18 Pittsburgh Panthers at No. 20 SMU Mustangs (8 PM ET on ACC Network)
Storyline to know: Two schools looking to stay alive in the ACC title hunt
While many see the ACC coming down to Miami and Clemson, there are still two other schools still looming large.
Both Pittsburgh and SMU are also undefeated in conference play so far this season, with the Panthers sporting a perfect 7-0 record overall. The winner of this game firmly establishes themselves as a top contender to win the conference along with the Hurricanes and Tigers while the loser could have some trouble getting back into the title hunt.
Matchup to watch when SMU has the ball (Dalton): Kevin Jennings vs. Pat Narduzzi’s unique defensive scheme
Pittsburgh’s defensive scheme is unique with its combination of quarters coverage, press coverage and high blitz rate. Teams that normally lean toward two-safety coverages aren’t usually thought of as aggressive.
The Panthers lead the Power Five in their usage of quarters coverage. They also lead the nation in press coverage rate and run the eighth-highest blitz percentage in the Power Four. Generally, opposing offenses wouldn’t take deep shots against teams that run quarters, but Pat Narduzzi dares teams to take shots downfield in a quicker manner than they would prefer.
How they match up with SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings owns a 66.8 passing grade against quarters compared to a 78.8 passing grade against all other coverages. He does own a 90.4 passing grade against the blitz, which is the 4th-best best mark in the nation. Duke forced him into mistakes last week by blitzing less than usual, so it’s possible that Narduzzi backs off in order to cause similar discomfort to Jennings.
Lastly, the Mustangs have earned just a 63.8 receiving grade against press coverage this season, and they’ve lost their leading receiver, RJ Maryland, for the season. If SMU is going to win this week, it will need to make fewer mistakes against another very unique defense.
Matchup to watch when Pittsburgh has the ball (Max): Can SMU force Pitt to win through the air?
Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi said the team is in a “wait and see” mode with quarterback Eli Holstein after he left the blowout win against Syracuse with an undisclosed injury. Regardless if the redshirt freshman suits up or not, SMU should focus on forcing Pittsburgh to win with its passing attack.
While the Panthers are 23rd in the nation in EPA per pass, a good amount of luck goes into that figure. Holstein’s 56.0 passing grade is the fourth-worst in the Power Four and 133rd among FBS signal-callers. His 14 turnover-worthy plays are also tied for the third most in the Power Four, despite throwing just six interceptions. Pittsburgh’s offensive line has also had issues protecting Holstein, allowing a pressure on 32.9% of dropbacks (90th in FBS). Holstein has struggled when under pressure as well, posting a 42.8 passing grade in such situations.
SMU meanwhile is second in the FBS to only Miami in pressure rate this season (42.4%). If the Mustangs are able to dominate the Panthers’ struggling offensive line and Holstein’s turnover luck runs out, that could spell trouble for Pitt.
Predictions
Dalton: SMU 31, Pittsburgh 27
SMU won’t turn the ball over six times again. Pittsburgh has questions at quarterback this week. Rhett Lashlee and Kevin Jennings find enough points in this huge matchup.
Max: SMU 28, Pittsburgh 20
Holstein and the Panthers struggle against the best defense they’ve faced all year and Pittsburgh suffers its first loss of the season. With a relatively easy remaining schedule, SMU has a great chance at going to Charlotte for the ACC Championship Game.
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.