• Georgia takes the top spot: The Bulldogs start off at No. 1 thanks to quarterback Carson Beck's return.
• Alabama sits at No. 2: With quarterback Jalen Milroe returning, the Crimson Tide start off second.
• Texas rounds out the top-three: The Longhorns complete an all-SEC top-three thanks to quarterback Quinn Ewers' expected return.
Estimated reading time: 15 minutes
While the 2023 college football season (literally) just ended, it’s never too early to project who the top teams in 2024 will be.
Next year is the start of a new era of college football. The Pac-12 conference is no more, leading to nearly all of its members departing for the Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC. Texas and Oklahoma also departed the Big 12 for the SEC.
Most importantly, the 12-team College Football Playoff begins next year after 10 years of the four-team system. That means that all 25 of these teams (plus a ton of others) have a legitimate shot at competing for a national championship in 2024.
Without further ado, here’s my way-too-early top-25 teams for the 2024 college football season.
1. Georgia Bulldogs (2023 Record: 13-1, Won Orange Bowl)
While Georgia couldn’t three-peat his season, the Bulldogs should be the current favorites to take home the national title in 2024. The biggest reason for that is the return of quarterback Carson Beck, whose 90.7 passing grade this year stood fourth in the country. Georgia also added former Florida running back Trevor Etienne in the transfer portal, whose 5.8 yards per carry tied for third among SEC running backs this season.
The Bulldogs do lose some key pieces like Brock Bowers, Kamari Lassiter and Amarius Mims. However, Kirby Smart has proven that this program simply reloads, not rebuilds.
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (2023 Record: 12-2, Lost CFP Semifinal)
Like Georgia, Alabama returns its star quarterback who’s one of the best big-play threats in the sport. Jalen Milroe’s 9.2% big-time throw rate was the second-best in the FBS this year while his 35 runs of 10-plus yards were fourth for all quarterbacks in the nation.
The Crimson Tide also bring back safety Caleb Downs to lead their defense, who was named to our All-American team as just a true freshman.
3. Texas Longhorns (2023 Record: 12-2, Lost CFP Semifinal)
Texas’ 2024 outlook also hinges on the NFL decision of its star quarterback. Unlike McCarthy, there’s optimism that Quinn Ewers will stay in school after his comments following the Longhorns’ semifinal loss to Washington.
“But I know that we're going to work as hard as we can to try to be back,” Ewers said in his postgame press conference. “And that's all we can really do, is attack the offseason the right way and just continue to build this team to what it's capable of being.”
While Ewers will likely be back to lead the offense, Texas also added a couple of the portal's top defenders in Clemson safety Andrew Mukuba and UTSA edge defender Trey Moore. Even with a jump in competition to the SEC, the Longhorns should remain national title contenders.
4. Michigan Wolverines (2023 Record: 15-0, Won National Championship)
There might not be a more volatile team on this list than Michigan. Depending on how the next week shakes out, the Wolverines can move up to as high as No. 1 on this list or drop out of the top five altogether.
Both head coach Jim Harbaugh and quarterback J.J. McCarthy have massive decisions to make as to whether they should return to Ann Arbor or move to the NFL. If they both leave, which is looking increasingly likely, those are two massive holes that will be difficult to replace. However, the Wolverines still have some star players returning regardless in cornerback Will Johnson, interior defensive lineman Mason Graham and tight end Colston Loveland.
5. Ole Miss Rebels (2023 Record: 11-2, Won Peach Bowl)
The Rebels’ 2024 hype took a major blow last week with star running back Quinshon Judkins entering the transfer portal. However, Ole Miss should still be seen as a legitimate national championship contender next season.
Even without Judkins, the Rebels bring back a ton of firepower on offense in quarterback Jaxson Dart, wide receiver Tre Harris and tight end Caden Prieskorn. All are among the best returning players at their respective positions. Head coach Lane Kiffin also completely rebuilt his defense by attacking the transfer portal better than anyone else. The Rebels brought in nine defenders who all saw significant playing time for their respective Power Five schools this past season, headlined by Florida edge defender Princely Umanmielen and Texas A&M interior defensive lineman Walter Nolen.
Don’t be surprised if Ole Miss starts the year in the top five for the first time since 1970.
6. Ohio State Buckeyes (2023 Record: 11-2, Lost Cotton Bowl)
Ohio State will be starting its third quarterback in three years next season after Kyle McCord transferred to Syracuse. To replace him, the Buckeyes added Kansas State’s Will Howard in the transfer portal. His 78.7 PFF grade this year ranked third among Big 12 signal-callers. He’s joined in the backfield by Ole Miss transfer Quinshon Judkins, who leads all Power Five running backs since 2022 in rushing yards (2,726), yards after contact (1,799) and forced missed tackles (151).
Ohio State will also be breaking in essentially a brand new receiving corps as Marvin Harrison Jr., Emeka Egbuka and Cade Stover are all expected to head to the NFL while Julian Fleming transferred to Penn State. The current “Wide Receiver U” hasn’t had much difficulty replacing talent there before though. The Buckeyes currently have four wide receivers who were among the top-50 overall recruits in the last two classes.
Ohio State also returns Jack Sawyer to lead its defense. He was the only edge defender in the nation who earned 85-plus PFF grades as a pass-rusher and in run defense this season.
7. Oregon Ducks (2023 Record: 12-2, Won Fiesta Bowl)
Even with quarterback Bo Nix moving on to the NFL, Oregon should be one of the top Big Ten contenders next season. That’s because the Ducks added the top quarterback in the transfer portal, Oklahoma’s Dillon Gabriel. His 91.6 PFF grade this year is the highest among returning FBS quarterbacks and only trailed Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. Oregon also added another top signal-caller in the portal in UCLA’s Dante Moore. The former five-star recruit’s 6.4% big-time throw rate as a true freshman stood third among Pac-12 quarterbacks this season.
While he won’t have Troy Franklin to throw to, Tez Johnson is a more than capable top option. His 727 yards after the catch this year led the Power Five and were the second-most in the country.
8. Penn State Nittany Lions (2023 Record: 10-3, Lost Peach Bowl)
Unlike the (likely) three Big Ten teams above them on this list, the Nittany Lions won’t need to replace their starting quarterback. While Drew Allar often drew the ire of the PSU faithful, he was far from the biggest problem with Penn State’s offense this year. The sophomore’s 87.1 PFF grade was a top-20 mark among FBS quarterbacks while the Nittany Lions finished outside the top-55 teams in both receiving (81st) and pass-blocking (60th) grades this year.
Help is on the way in both aspects as Penn State picked up a couple of former five-star recruits in the transfer portal: wide receiver Julian Fleming (Ohio State) and offensive tackle Nolan Rucci (Wisconsin). The Nittany Lions also have a new offensive coordinator in Kansas’ Andy Kotelnicki to help Allar fully unlock his potential.
9. Missouri Tigers (2023 Record: 11-2, Won Cotton Bowl)
Missouri was one of the biggest surprises of the 2023 season, winning its first New Year’s Six bowl in 10 years. It was also the first winning year for the Tigers since the 2018 season.
A major reason for Mizzou’s resurgence was its offense, which finished as the Power Five’s 14th-best in EPA per play after placing 56th in that metric just last year. The Tigers have many key contributors returning to that offense, like offensive coordinator Kirby Moore, quarterback Brady Cook, wide receiver Luther Burden III and center Connor Tollison. Burden and Tollison in particular were among the six highest-graded Power Five players at their respective positions this year.
10. Arizona Wildcats (2023 Record: 10-3, Won Alamo Bowl)
Arizona might’ve had an even more surprising season than Missouri. The Wildcats finished with a 10-3 record after five straight losing years that combined for a 15-38 record.
Also like Mizzou, Arizona returns many key contributors from that team, namely the stars of its offense. Noah Fifita is back to lead it and finished with a 78.1% adjusted completion rate this year, fourth among Pac-12 quarterbacks. Jonah Coleman joins him once again in the backfield and had the fifth-best forced missed tackle rate among Power Five running backs this season (37%). Fifita’s top receiver since eighth grade, Tetairoa McMillan, is back as well. His 1,396 receiving yards this year led all returning Power Five receivers.
The Wildcats enter the Big 12 as the early favorite to win the new-look conference.
11. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (2023 Record: 10-3, Won Sun Bowl)
After finishing fifth in the nation in defensive EPA per play, Notre Dame should once again field one of the top defenses in the country next season. Linebacker Jack Kiser and interior defensive lineman Howard Cross III both return and were each among the three highest-graded players at their respective positions this season. Safety Xavier Watts is back as well after winning the Bronko Nagurski Trophy, which is given to the best defender in the country. He led the nation with seven interceptions this year.
The Fighting Irish will have a completely different offense in 2024, but there is some optimism with the hire of LSU offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock and the arrival of Duke quarterback Riley Leonard.
12. Utah Utes (2023 Record: 8-5, Lost Las Vegas Bowl)
Utah was able to go 8-5 in 2023 without its two best offensive players in quarterback Cameron Rising and tight end Brant Kuithe. Rising’s 86.1 grade across the 2021 and 2022 seasons was a top-20 mark among Power Five quarterbacks while Kuithe’s 305 yards after the catch in 2021 were fifth among Power Five tight ends.
With both returning in 2024 and head coach Kyle Whittingham consistently producing elite defenses, the Utes should be one of the top contenders in the new-look Big 12 next year.
13. Clemson Tigers (2023 Record: 9-4, Won Gator Bowl)
Clemson’s defense carried them in 2023, tying for second in the nation in overall grade and placing third in expected points allowed per play. That side of the ball should remain elite next year. Four true freshmen on the Tigers’ defense earned 75-plus grades this year on at least 300 snaps: interior defensive lineman Peter Woods, safety Khalil Barnes, cornerback Avieon Terrell and edge defender T.J. Parker. Barrett Carter also announced his return for his senior season despite being projected as one of the top linebacker prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft.
The question is whether the offense can keep up. Despite there being a lot of hype on that side of the ball with the partnership of Broyles-award-winning offensive coordinator Garrett Riley and five-star quarterback Cade Klubnik, Clemson still tied for 89th in the FBS in offensive grade. They’ll need to make serious strides in Year 2 to win the ACC and secure a spot in the 12-team playoff.
14. Louisville Cardinals (2023 Record: 10-4, Lost Holiday Bowl)
Year 1 of the Jeff Brohm era couldn’t have gone much better. Louisville enjoyed its first 10-win season in a decade while playing in its first-ever ACC Championship Game.
Expectations should be similarly high next year. Ashton Gillotte is back after being one of only three Power Five edge defenders with 80-plus pass-rushing and run-defense grades. The Cardinals were also one of the top teams in the transfer portal, adding top players like wide receiver Caullin Lacy and cornerback Corey Thornton amongst others.
15. Washington Huskies (2023 Record: 14-1, Lost National Championship)
It may seem odd to place a team that lost the national championship this low, but Washington is losing a lot of talent. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr., wide receiver Rome Odunze and edge defender Bralen Trice are all projected first-round picks while the Huskies could lose a few more projected Day 2 picks in offensive tackle Troy Fautanu and wide receivers Ja’Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan.
Still, the Huskies deserve a place inside the top 15 with head coach Kalen DeBoer and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb in tow. Washington has gone 25-3 in the two years they’ve been here after going 4-8 the year before they were hired. Their new quarterback who’ll be running the show post-Penix is Mississippi State’s Will Rogers, who’ll look to recapture his 2021 form when he earned the seventh-best passing grade in the Power Five.
16. Florida State Seminoles (2023 Record: 13-1, Lost Orange Bowl)
Like Washington, Florida State is losing most of the top talent that led the Seminoles to a 13-0 record before being controversially snubbed from the College Football Playoff. One of those losses was quarterback Jordan Travis, whose season-ending leg injury was the reason that FSU was left out of the playoff in the first place.
Florida State was able to make a splash in the portal to replace him with Oregon State’s DJ Uiagalelei rejoining the ACC after once serving as Clemson’s starter. His 6.5% big-time throw rate trailed only Michael Penix Jr. among Pac-12 quarterbacks.
17. Tennessee Volunteers (2023 Record: 9-4, Won Citrus Bowl)
Tennessee fans enjoyed a glimpse into the future in its 35-0 blowout win over No. 20 Iowa in the Citrus Bowl. True freshman Nico Iamaleava made his debut in the contest and showed every bit of the talent that made him a top-10 recruit. He finished with an 85.0 passing grade against one of the nation’s best defenses.
On the other side, the Volunteers feature a potential top-five pick in the 2025 NFL Draft in edge defender James Pearce Jr. The sophomore’s 21.3% pressure rate trailed only Laiatu Latu among Power Five edges while his 21.9% pass-rush win rate was fifth in the nation.
18. Oklahoma Sooners (2023 Record: 10-3, Lost Alamo Bowl)
Oklahoma’s offense suffered a couple of massive losses when offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby left to become Mississippi State’s head coach and quarterback Dillon Gabriel transferred to Oregon.
Jackson Arnold will replace the latter and had an up-and-down performance against Arizona in the Alamo Bowl, finishing three big-time throws and five turnover-worthy plays. Still, he was just a true freshman in his first career start who will enter 2024 with a lot of hype as a former top-10 recruit.
19. LSU Tigers (2023 Record: 10-3, Won ReliaQuest Bowl)
Speaking of losing offensive talent, that’s precisely what’s happening to LSU. The Tigers must replace Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Jayden Daniels and a couple of projected first-round receivers in Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. Garrett Nussmeier will be Brian Kelly’s new signal-caller and has earned a 77.8 career PFF grade on 430 snaps. He’ll have an elite offensive line protecting him, led by star left tackle Will Campbell.
The defense needs to be better after finishing among the 20 worst in EPA per play, but the hire of Missouri’s Brandon Baker as defensive coordinator coupled with the return of linebacker Harold Perkins Jr. should be cause for some optimism.
20. USC Trojans (2023 Record: 8-5, Won Holiday Bowl)
USC was the most disappointing team in college football. With the reigning Heisman winner, Caleb Williams, returning to lead them, the Trojans entered the season ranked sixth and having College Football Playoff expectations. Instead, USC’s putrid defense (118th in EPA per play) caused them to fall to just 8-5 and without a number next to its name.
Lincoln Riley addressed those defensive issues with the hiring of UCLA’s D’Anton Lynn as defensive coordinator. In his first year there, the Bruins improved from 111th in expected points allowed per play to eighth. As for Williams’ replacement, Miller Moss is slated to take over. He earned an 89.3 PFF passing grade in the Holiday Bowl win over Louisville.
21. Kansas Jayhawks (2023 Record: 9-4, Won Guaranteed Rate Bowl)
While Kansas lost offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki to Penn State, the Jayhawks still have plenty to be excited about on that side of the ball. It starts with quarterback Jalon Daniels, who will be back after playing just three games this season. In those three games, he earned an 88.4 PFF passing grade that was 10th among Power Five signal-callers with at least 200 snaps. Devin Neal is also back at running back after rushing for 1,280 yards, the fourth-most in the Big 12. Kansas should also return most of a receiving corps that finished second to only Washington in receiving grade (89.2).
22. Kansas State Wildcats (2023 Record: 9-4, Won Pop-Tarts Bowl)
The Wildcats lost their four most valuable players according to PFF’s wins above average metric: tight end Ben Sinnott, guard Cooper Beebe, quarterback Will Howard and wide receiver Phillip Brooks.
The fifth, DJ Giddens, is back after forcing the third-most missed tackles (69) among Big 12 running backs this season. He’ll partner with new quarterback Avery Johnson to form one of the best rushing duos in the conference next season. Johnson, a former top-10 quarterback recruit, had the seventh-most rushing yards among Big 12 quarterbacks as a true freshman despite playing only 204 snaps.
23. Oklahoma State Cowboys (2023 Record: 10-4, Won Texas Bowl)
While Oklahoma State was often a one-man show in 2023, that was enough to carry the Cowboys to the Big 12 Championship Game. The good news for OSU is that superstar running back Ollie Gordon II will be back to carry the Pokes once again. The Doak Walker Award winner led the nation in rushing yards (1,732) despite only receiving 17 total carries in the first three games. Elsewhere on offense, Oklahoma State will return starting quarterback Alan Bowman and top receiver Brennan Presley to lift some of the pressure off of Gordon’s shoulders.
24. SMU Mustangs (2023 Record: 11-3, Lost Fenway Bowl)
SMU should have high expectations as it makes the move from the American Athletic Conference to the ACC. The Mustangs finished as the eighth-highest-graded team in the country this season and return many key players to that squad, namely quarterback Preston Stone. He led all Group of Five signal-callers in PFF passing grade (90.5) and big-time throws (30) this past season.
25. Liberty Flames (2023 Record: 13-1, Lost Fiesta Bowl)
Since the best Group of Five champion is now guaranteed a playoff berth, it makes sense to point out the favorite for that spot next season.
Schools like Boise State or Memphis could’ve been placed here, but Liberty holds that distinction right now. The Flames are coming off a 13-1 season under first-year coach Jamey Chadwell and received massive news last week when star quarterback Kaidon Salter withdrew from the transfer portal. His 90.2 PFF grade this year trailed only Prestone Stone among Group of Five quarterbacks.
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