• Michigan-Alabama: The top-ranked Wolverines and No. 4 Crimson Tide meet in the Rose Bowl in what should be a battle between elite defenses.

• Washington-Texas: The No. 2 Huskies and third-ranked Longhorns play in the Sugar Bowl, a game that could produce plenty of explosive plays on offense.

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Estimated Reading Time: 4 minutes

The build-up to the College Football Playoff will finally give way on the first day of 2024 when the action kicks off. Top-ranked Michigan faces No. 4 Alabama in the Rose Bowl, and No. 2 Washington and No. 3 Texas meet in the Sugar Bowl.

Here are the matchups to watch and predictions for both games.

NO. 1 MICHIGAN WOLVERINES VS. NO. 4 ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (ROSE BOWL)

How to watch: 5 p.m. EST on ESPN (Monday, Jan. 1)

Matchup to watch when Michigan has the ball: Will the Wolverines be one-dimensional?

The bread-and-butter of Michigan’s offense is its ground game. The Wolverines have run the ball on 55.9% of their plays this season, the fifth-highest rate among Power Five schools. In a 24-15 win over then-No. 10 Penn State in November, quarterback J.J. McCarthy attempted only eight passes, none of which were in the second half. In the three games of Michigan facing elite defenses, the junior was mostly pedestrian, posting just a 69.7 passing grade.

J.J. McCarthy against Penn State, Ohio State and Iowa | 2023

Alabama's defense, meanwhile, ranks third in the FBS with a 93.9 grade this season. Three members of the Crimson Tide’s secondary were named to PFF’s All-American team (Kool-Aid McKinstry, Terrion Arnold and Caleb Downs). Since Alabama also places sixth in team run-defense grade, it’s unlikely that the Wolverines will be able to win this game without McCarthy making some big-time throws.

Matchup to watch when Alabama has the ball: Can Michigan contain Jalen Milroe?

The only defense in college football with a higher coverage grade than Alabama this season is Michigan (93.1 grade). The only other defense the Crimson Tide faced that placed in the top 15 of that metric was Georgia (ninth). In that SEC Championship game, Milroe posted a season-low 50.2 passing grade.

For Milroe to be effective against the Wolverines, he’ll need to utilize his mobility. His 87.7 rushing grade this year ranks second to only Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels among FBS quarterbacks. The Wolverines haven’t allowed a quarterback to rush for 60-plus yards against them since their playoff loss to TCU last year, when Max Duggan ran for two touchdowns in a game that was decided by just six points. A similar performance from Milroe could be what pushes the Crimson Tide over the edge.

Prediction: Michigan 24, Alabama 21

The Wolverines survive what should be a defensive slugfest and advance to their first national championship game in program history.

NO. 2 WASHINGTON HUSKIES VS. NO. 3 TEXAS LONGHORNS (SUGAR BOWL)

How to watch: 8:45 p.m. EST on ESPN (Monday, Jan. 1)

Matchup to watch when Washington has the ball: Can Texas prevent clean pockets for Michael Penix Jr.?

Washington's passing game is college football's best. The Huskies sport a 91.4 offensive grade on passing plays, the top mark in the nation. They have the highest receiving grade(88.3), too, headlined by a projected top-10 pick in wide receiver Rome Odunze. Throwing them the ball is Michael Penix Jr., who finished second in Heisman voting this year. He led the nation with 4,222 passing yards, his second straight year of pacing the Power Five in that category. Considering the Huskies' offensive firepower, their passing game can seem unstoppable at times — and that could prove especially true against a Texas defense that places just 54th in team coverage grade this season.

If there’s one thing the Longhorns can do to slow down this high-powered attack, it’s to make things muddy in front of Penix, who isn’t a very mobile quarterback. He completed just 47.2% of his passes from outside the pocket this season, ranking 84th among FBS signal-callers. He also completed just 59.6% of his passes against the blitz, tied for 53rd in the country.

It won’t be easy to get after Penix, though, as Washington’s pass-blocking grade ranks fifth in college football. Texas also blitzes at just the 73rd-highest rate in the FBS (35.4%), which should change in the Sugar Bowl if the Longhorns want to take some pressure off their secondary.

Matchup to watch when Texas has the ball: Can the Longhorns punish the Huskies on the ground?

While Washington will likely try to win this game through the air, Texas could have a sizable advantage on the ground. The Longhorns have rushed for more than 100 yards in every game this season, even in their three outings without star running back Jonathon Brooks. Texas has forced 124 missed tackles on the ground in 2023, second among Power Five schools.

That could prove to be a major issue against Washington, which has missed the third-most tackles in the Power Five this season (159). The Huskies also place just 84th in the nation in rushing yards after contact allowed per attempt, so there’s an opportunity for Longhorn running backs CJ Baxter and Jaydon Blue to shine if Washington continues its struggles wrapping up.

Prediction: Washington 34, Texas 31

The Sugar Bowl will be a higher-scoring affair than the Rose Bowl. Like Michigan, Washington prevails and advances to its first national championship game in school history.