- Head Coach: Jonathan Smith (first season)
- 2023 record: 4-8
- PFF power ranking: 61st
- Chance to win Big Ten: 1%
- Strength of schedule: 27th
- Projected win total: 5.8
- FanDuel win total: 4.5
- 2024 recruiting rank (On3): No. 43 nationally, No. 12 in the Big Ten
Michigan State endured a tumultuous 2023 season, during which head coach Mel Tucker was fired after just two games. Defensive backs coach Harlon Barnett then took over the program, and the Spartans finished just 2-8.
Former Oregon State head coach Jonathan Smith was hired after doing an excellent job turning around the Beavers. He’ll need to do the same for Michigan State, as both its offense and defense finished outside the top 10 in PFF grading.
This year’s roster will look drastically different than in 2023, as the Spartans brought in 23 transfers, including a new quarterback in Aidan Chiles.
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Biggest Strength: The passing game should be improved
Michigan State's offense produced just a 59.2 passing grade in 2023, the Power Five’s fourth-lowest mark, so there’s really nowhere to go but up. There should be more optimism this year, though, with Jonathan Smith bringing quarterback Aidan Chiles and tight end Jack Velling with him from Oregon State. Chiles was a four-star recruit in the 2023 class, while Velling is a top-10 tight end.
Biggest Weakness: But will the defense get any better?
Michigan State’s defense finished outside the top 100 in grading (112th) and EPA per play (103rd) last season. Then, the Spartans’ three best defenders — Derrick Harmon, Simeon Barrow Jr. and safety Jaden Mangham — entered the transfer portal. Michigan State brought in several transfers on the defensive side of the ball and will need them to immediately contribute to improve the unit.
2023 Team Overview
Offense |
||||
| EPA per play | Yards per play | Successful play rate | Explosive run play rate | Explosive pass play rate |
| -0.198 | 4.8 | 30.9% | 9.7% | 11.9% |
| 130th | 124th | 117th | 131st | 111th |
Defense |
||||
| EPA allowed per play | Yards allowed per play | Successful play rate allowed | Explosive run rate allowed | Explosive pass rate allowed |
| 0.058 | 5.9 | 36.2% | 14.4% | 15.2% |
| 103rd | T-92nd | 92nd | 52nd | 96th |
Three Notable Transfer Portal Additions
- QB Aidan Chiles (Oregon State): 71.9 PFF grade
- TE Jack Velling (Oregon State): 69.7 PFF grade
- CB Ed Woods (Arizona State): 76.8 PFF grade
Three Notable Transfer Portal Losses
- DI Derrick Harmon (Oregon): 78.4 PFF grade
- TE Maliq Carr (Houston): 81.9 PFF grade
- DI Simeon Barrow Jr. (Miami FL): 72.2 PFF grade
Quarterback Spotlight: Aidan Chiles
2023 Grade: 71.9
Key Stat: 7 total touchdowns, 0 turnovers last season
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