College Football Preview 2024: Appalachian State Mountaineers win projections, strengths and weaknesses, quarterback spotlight and more

• Head coach: Shawn Clark (fifth season)
• 2023 record: 9-5 (won Cure Bowl)
• PFF power ranking: 57th
• Chance to win the Sun Belt: 13%
• Strength of schedule: 69th
• Projected win total: 7.3
• FanDuel win total: 8.5
• 2024 recruiting rank (On3): No. 105 nationally, No. 9 in Sun Belt

After a disappointing 6-6 record in 2022, Appalachian State got back on track this past season. The Mountaineers won nine games for the eighth time in the past nine years and capped their season off with a Cure Bowl victory over Miami (OH).

Head coach Shawn Clark now has his sights set on his first Sun Belt Championship as a head coach, and Appalachian State enters 2024 as the betting favorite to win the conference. That’s mainly due to many key pieces returning offensively, especially in the passing game. Still, the defense needs to hold the line of scrimmage better in the run game if the Mountaineers are to hoist the Sun Belt trophy.

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Biggest Strength: A strong passing game remains intact

Joey Aguilar heads into his second season as Appalachian State’s starting quarterback after ranking fifth among Group of Five signal-callers in big-time throws (24) last year. The Mountaineers also bring back their top four wide receivers and top tight end from a group that earned a top-15 receiving grade in the nation (82.9).

Biggest Weakness: Can they defend the run better?

Offenses consistently gashed Appalachian State on the ground last year. The Mountaineers gave up 5.9 yards per attempt, the fifth-worst average in college football. They added only one front-seven player from the transfer portal, adding more pressure on last season’s players to significantly improve.

Three Notable Transfer Portal Additions

• S Myles Farmer (Syracuse): 70.6 PFF grade
• CB Jason Chambers (NC Central): 81.2 PFF grade
• OT Thomas Shrader (Florida State): 81.5 PFF grade

Three Notable Transfer Portal Losses

• RB Nate Noel (Missouri): 73.9 PFF grade
• DT DeAndre Dingle-Prince (North Carolina A&T): 58.7 PFF grade
• EDGE Donovan Spellman (Charlotte): 56.6 PFF grade

2023 Team Overview

Quarterback Spotlight: Joey Aguilar

2023 Grade: 76.7
Key stat: 27 turnover-worthy plays (second most in FBS)

Overview: Aguilar is a gunslinger who got off to a rough start in 2023, committing 18 turnover-worthy plays in his first eight games. He played better toward the end of the regular season, leading his Mountaineers to an appearance in the Sun Belt title game. The upside for Aguilar is that he did lead the Sun Belt with 13 big-time throws and threw 17 touchdowns during Appalachian State’s five-game winning streak to end the regular season.

Strengths: Aguilar is fearless when it comes to uncorking passes downfield, especially off play action. He ranked fourth in FBS last season with 19 play-action passing touchdowns and sixth with 16 big-time throws. He exhibits good touch on vertical passes down the middle of the field. Aguilar led the nation with 26 completions combined to post and seam routes. His 95.1 PFF passing grade on those routes tied him with Bo Nix for ninth in FBS.

Weaknesses: Aguilar makes some excellent throws downfield, but he is far too loose with the football. He finished 2023 with 27 turnover-worthy plays, the second most in college football, and led all FBS players with 17 fumbles. He looks far more comfortable when throwing the ball vertically than horizontally. He also doesn’t show much poise under pressure, which results in the Mountaineers needing to limit their offensive versatility. Only six teams ran more pass plays with extra protection last season. If Aguilar can play with better pocket presence, he will give himself more options to work with downfield.

Offensive Player Spotlight: WR Kaedin Robinson

Robinson established himself as Aguilar’s favorite target this past season. His 10 receiving touchdowns tied for the most in the Sun Belt, and his 79.6 PFF receiving grade ranked sixth in the conference. The former UCF Knight has very strong hands, placing in the 90th percentile of FBS receivers in drop rate (2.8%). Robinson moves very well at 6-foot-2 and 205 pounds and has gotten better every year of his career.

Click here to see Kaedin Robinson's grading profile

Defensive Player Spotlight: DI Santana Hopper

After seeing action in only two games in 2022, Hopper took full advantage of the expanded role he received as a redshirt freshman this past season. His 10.6% pressure rate ranked third among Sun Belt interior defensive linemen, as did his 12.8% pass-rush win rate. He also earned a 75.5 run-defense grade. Hopper is very undersized for a defensive tackle, at just 255 pounds, but makes up for it with rare movement ability for the position (99th percentile athlete in PFF’s Game Athleticism Score metric).

Click here to see Santana Hopper's grading profile

Bottom Line

With an explosive passing attack returning for another season, it’s easy to see why Appalachian State is the favorite to win the Sun Belt conference. The Mountaineers need to get stronger on both sides of the line of scrimmage to achieve that, though.

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