• The first 12-team playoff kicks off this week: The largest College Football Playoff ever gets underway this weekend with four first-round matchups: Indiana–Notre Dame, SMU–Penn State, Clemson–Texas and Tennessee–Ohio State.
• What to watch for when each team has the ball: Read below to get full matchup breakdowns for each team’s pass game and run game against the opposing defense.
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Estimated Reading Time: 23 minutes
Anticipation for the 12-team College Football Playoff began 2.5 years ago when it was first announced. The format tripled the previous size of the field and would feature home playoff games for the first time ever.
We’ve finally made it to the inaugural 12-team playoff with four juicy first-round matchups on college campuses this weekend. With that, we’ve decided to make our preview more expansive than ever before. We’ll be diving into two matchups to watch for each offense in these games, one for the passing game and one for the running game. And of course, we’ll be predicting who will advance to the quarterfinals.
No. 10 Indiana Hoosiers at No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Friday, 8 PM EST on ABC/ESPN)
Notre Dame’s pass game against Indiana’s pass defense (Dalton): Is Notre Dame capable of handling obvious passing situations?
With all due respect to Notre Dame’s success this season, we haven’t seen Notre Dame’s passing attack play against an elite defense. The only teams the Fighting Irish played that rank inside the top 50 in coverage grade are Army, Navy and Northern Illinois. Nine of the 12 teams they have played rank outside the top 70 in pass rush grade.
Meanwhile, Indiana places inside the top 12 in both of those categories. Outside of the Ohio State game, the Hoosiers have been mostly outstanding, as they’ve used a zone-heavy approach to prevent big plays through the air.
Even accounting for Notre Dame’s weaker schedule, the Fighting Irish rank just 63rd in pass blocking grade and 59th in receiving grade. They’ve been able to create single coverage matchups against lesser opponents, but Indiana rarely offers those matchups.
Riley Leonard’s passing grade drops by 10 points against zone coverage when compared to man coverage. Against Cover 3 in particular, which Indiana runs at the fourth-highest rate in the nation, Leonard has posted just a 65.8 coverage grade.
It will be incumbent upon Leonard to decipher which way Indiana’s coverage will rotate and either release the ball or scramble before Mikail Kamara and the Hoosiers’ pass rush can get to him.
Notre Dame’s national title hopes likely rest with finding balance in its offense. The Fighting Irish will face their toughest task of the season this week.
Notre Dame’s run game against Indiana’s run defense (Max): A heavyweight matchup that could very well decide the game
Notre Dame’s offense is centered around its fantastic ground game. The Fighting Irish are third in the FBS with 0.266 EPA per run and lead the Power Four with 6.7 yards per carry and 4.0 yards after contact per attempt. Notre Dame has a three-headed monster in its backfield between Jeremiyah Love, Riley Leonard and Jadarian Price. Those three combined have helped the Fighting Irish produce the fourth-best rushing grade in the country (93.7). Their rushing success is also a complete team effort though, as Notre Dame is also tied for seventh in the FBS with a 77.7 run-blocking grade.
Indiana’s been very stout against the run this year as the Hoosiers are currently tied for fourth in the nation with a 94.1 run-defense grade and 3.7 yards per attempt allowed. Nobody in the nation is better at swarming to the ball than the Hoosiers, as their 0.8 yards before contact allowed per attempt leads the FBS.
The Fighting Irish’s most common run concept is inside zone, as that makes up 48% of their rushing attempts (18th in FBS). Indiana’s been strong against that concept, placing eighth among FBS defenses in EPA allowed on inside zone runs.
The Hoosiers must also account for Leonard on every play, who’s fifth among Power Four quarterbacks with 764 rushing yards this season. Indiana has yet to allow a big game from a quarterback on the ground though, allowing an average of 16.3 rushing yards from quarterbacks per game.
If the Hoosiers can get the Fighting Irish behind the chains and force Notre Dame’s average passing attack to beat them, Indiana could very well pull off the upset in South Bend. But if not, the Fighting Irish’s elite run game could once again carry them to victory.
Indiana’s pass game against Notre Dame’s pass defense (Max): Can the Hoosiers’ offensive line hold up?
Indiana’s two worst games of the season, its loss to Ohio State and a five-point victory over Michigan, coincided with its two worst performances in pass protection. The Hoosiers posted just a 45.6 pass-blocking grade in those two contests compared to an 83.5 mark in their other 10 games.
In particular, Indiana had a lot of issues when Ohio State and Michigan blitzed them. The Buckeyes and Wolverines generated pressure on 47.6% of their blitzes while sacking Kurtis Rourke seven times as well. In the other 10 games, the Hoosiers only gave up nine sacks against the blitz and a 26.3% pressure rate.
Michigan (first) and Ohio State (18th) own two of the top 20 pass-rushing grades in America, while Notre Dame isn’t too far behind at 25th. Indiana hasn’t faced another team inside the top 25 all season. The Fighting Irish send a blitz on 39.6% of their snaps, 40th in the country and just a tad more than Ohio State and Michigan do (39.4%).
If the Hoosiers’ offensive line can hold up, we should have a terrific battle between Kurtis Rourke and Indiana’s receivers against Notre Dame’s elite secondary. Rourke is second among FBS quarterbacks with a 91.8 passing grade while the Hoosiers lead the nation with a 90.8 receiving grade. The Fighting Irish meanwhile are second to only Texas among FBS defenses in coverage grade (92.4). To even get to the point where it’s between those two elite units, Indiana’s offensive line needs to protect Rourke against a strong pass rush.
Indiana’s run game against Notre Dame’s run defense (Dalton): Will Notre Dame’s defensive line find its form in its biggest game of the season?
After dominating their opponents and earning the fifth-best run defense grade in the nation last season, the Fighting Irish's defensive line has struggled in that same area this season, ranking 90th in run-defense grade.
It’s a strange development, as they lost just one key contributor to the NFL, Javonte Jean-Baptiste, though he was their highest-graded run defender amongst that unit. As a result, the Fighting Irish rank outside the top 30 in several categories such as yards per carry allowed, yards after contact per attempt allowed, and successful plays allowed.
Meanwhile, Indiana has run the ball effectively all season with Justice Ellison and Ty’Son Lawton, especially to the outside. Indiana ranks inside the top three among Power Four teams in rushing grade and run-blocking grade on off-tackle runs. Notre Dame has allowed 5.0 yards per carry on off-tackle runs this season, which sits right at the national average.
If the Hoosiers can exploit this weakness and bring balance to their offense as opposed to relying solely on Kurtis Rourke for explosive plays, they could pull off the road upset
Predictions
Dalton: Indiana 27, Notre Dame 24
The Hoosiers need to accomplish three things in this game if they want to win: contain the run, force Riley Leonard beyond his first read and pass protect against blitzes. I’ll take them to do just enough of all three to get a victory
Max: Notre Dame 31, Indiana 21
Indiana’s run defense has been spectacular all year, but it also hasn’t faced an attack as lethal as Notre Dame’s. The Fighting Irish rely on their run game and its pass rush to squeak out a win in South Bend in the battle for Indiana. Notre Dame moves on to play Georgia in the Sugar Bowl.
No. 11 SMU Mustangs at No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions (Saturday, 12 PM EST on TNT/Max)
Penn State’s pass game against SMU’s pass defense (Max): Who wins on the outside?
The top priority for the Mustangs’ pass defense is to take away tight end Tyler Warren. The John Mackey Award winner leads all Power Four tight ends in catches (88), receiving yards (1,062) and yards after the catch (608). Outside of Warren, Penn State’s receiving corps lacks top-end talent. All of the Nittany Lion wide receivers combined for just 1,496 receiving yards (114th in the FBS). Keep in mind that Penn State played 13 games while the vast majority of the nation played 12.
While it’s highly unlikely any defense can completely shut down Warren, SMU’s well-equipped to at least hold him in check. The Mustangs’ safeties lead the FBS with a 93.2 coverage grade this year as a group. Coming in second is Ohio State, one of two teams that beat Penn State and the one that held Warren to just four catches for 47 yards.
Where SMU has issues is on the outside. The Mustangs’ outside cornerbacks combined have just a 64.5 coverage grade this season (117th in the FBS).
While Penn State would much rather let Warren carry its passing game, it might not be able to against SMU’s elite safety quartet of Isaiah Nwokobia, Jonathan McGill, Cale Sanders Jr. and Ahmaad Moses. The good news for the Nittany Lions is that a player Harrison Wallace III could have a big game against a vulnerable cornerback room for the Mustangs.
Penn State’s run game against SMU’s run defense (Dalton): Andy Kotelnicki vs. SMU’s linebackers
Penn State offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki has displayed his trademark creativity in the run game despite leading a unit that ranks just 42nd in run-blocking grade. His variety of concepts and deep arsenal of trick plays are his greatest assets for creating explosive runs, though it will be interesting to see if the departure of backup quarterback Beau Pribula affects the latter part.
Meanwhile, SMU presents the Nittany Lions with their toughest task in the run game aside from Ohio State. The Mustangs rank sixth in run-defense grade this season and have been spectacular as a unit on all three levels of their defense.
When the Mustangs have struggled in run defense, it has been when teams can bypass their stellar defensive line and get downhill on their linebackers at the second level. Their linebacker trio of Kobe Wilson, Ahmad Walker and Alexander Kilgore have all posted run defense grades above 80.0 this season, but they are smaller players who are better at chasing ball carriers laterally and prefer to avoid taking on blocks.
Penn State is coming off arguably its best rushing performance of the season against Oregon as the Nittany Lions used a more direct approach conceptually in order to get their linemen to the second level. Only Illinois’ and Kent State’s linebackers posted a lower run defense grade against Penn State this season than Oregon’s did.
Penn State has a chance to find success in the run game if they can overwhelm SMU’s talented, but undersized, linebackers.
SMU’s pass game against Penn State’s pass defense (Dalton): Kevin Jennings vs. Penn State’s single-high coverages
SMU’s success in the passing game will be determined by its ability to read and control Penn State’s safeties. The Nittany Lions run a top-30 rate of single-high defenses this season but rank just 66th in coverage grade when deploying them.
Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings has shredded single-high defenses to the tune of a 90.5 passing grade that ranks fourth among 133 passers with at least 100 dropbacks against them. Only Cade Klubnik and Shedeur Sanders have thrown more touchdowns versus single-high defenses than Jennings has.
The question is whether or not Rhett Lashlee is willing to let Jennings air it out on early downs as the Nittany Lions lean more into two safety coverages in obvious passing situations. Penn State ranks just 65th in early down coverage grade this season, but SMU sits at 82nd in their rate of early down passes called.
The Nittany Lions emphasize stopping the run on early downs, and for as good as Brashard Smith has been this season, the Mustangs may want to mix up the playcalling a bit to exploit Penn State’s vulnerability when they lean into single-high defenses.
SMU’s run game against Penn State’s run defense (Max): Can the Mustangs get outside on the Nittany Lions?
SMU’s ground game is headlined by one of the nation’s most underrated players in Brashard Smith. His 91.2 PFF grade is third among FBS running backs, trailing only Ashton Jeanty and Jeremiyah Love. The former wide receiver is an outstanding receiving back but has also been one of the better rushers as well, placing second in the ACC with 1,154 rushing yards this season.
A large amount of Smith’s production has come on inside zone runs this season. His 551 yards on that concept are ninth among Power Four backs. SMU as a team has run inside zone 215 times this season, tied for third-most in the Power Four.
Penn State’s defense has had a lot of issues on outside zone runs this season (90th in defensive grade) but has been lights out inside the tackles. The Nittany Lions are fifth in the FBS in EPA per play allowed on inside-zone runs. Penn State only gives up 3.6 yards per carry on such plays, the eighth fewest in the country. The Nittany Lions, in particular their linebackers, much prefer working downhill between the tackles than chasing down opposing tailbacks sideline-to-sideline.
SMU will likely need to get creative and bounce a majority of runs to the outside to have any chance of generating a successful run game on Penn State.
Predictions
Dalton: Penn State 27, SMU 21
It seems obvious that SMU will need to play its best game of the season to win this one. The Mustangs stand a chance if Jennings and their run defense play a near-perfect game, but Penn State’s pass rush and Andy Kotelnicki’s brilliance should be enough to get the Nittany Lions through this one.
Max: Penn State 34, SMU 24
Penn State’s defense makes SMU rely on Kevin Jennings too much in this game by shutting down the Mustangs’ ground game. Harrison Wallace III turns out to be the X-factor for the Nittany Lion offense as Penn State survives to face Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl.
No. 12 Clemson Tigers at No. 5 Texas Longhorns (Saturday, 4 PM EST on TNT/Max)
Texas’ pass game against Clemson’s pass defense (Dalton): How much trust does Dabo Swinney have in his secondary?
Clemson boasts an extremely young secondary that includes talented cornerbacks like Avieon Terrell, Ashton Hampton and Jeadyn Lukas. Those three players have combined to produce 18 pass breakups and five interceptions this season while each of the posted coverage grades above 70.0.
The Tigers' performance in this matchup against Texas will be crucial as the Longhorns’ passing game has struggled to find consistent footing this season. Something that has bothered them this season is when opponents mix in a higher rate of man coverage. Georgia used this approach to stifle its passing game in both of its wins over Texas.
Quinn Ewers has posted just a 63.1 passing grade with two big-time throws and five turnover-worthy plays against man coverage this season. Despite being so young in the secondary, Clemson has run the 18th-most man coverage plays as a defense in the FBS. The Tigers have also been effective in doing so with an 81.2 team coverage grade and 25 forced incompletions.
It may seem counterintuitive to ask so much of such a young secondary, but Clemson’s aggressive nature has worked to their benefit all season, and that shouldn’t change this week.
Texas’ run game against Clemson’s run defense (Max): Will the Tigers be able to contain the Longhorns on the outside?
A large chunk of Texas’ ground game is centered around its ability to win on the outside. The Longhorns have called outside zone 137 times this year, the eighth-most in the Power Four. A big reason for that is that Texas has one of the best offensive tackle duos in Kelvin Banks Jr. and Cameron Williams, two top-25 prospects on PFF’s 2025 NFL Draft big board. Quintrevion Wisner is ninth among Power Four running backs with 345 rushing yards on such plays as well. Both he and Jaydon Blue are very good athletes at running back with the speed to create big gains if given a crease.
Meanwhile, Clemson’s had a lot of difficulties keeping contain this season. The Tigers have allowed six yards per-carry on outside zone runs, the sixth-most in the Power Four. While sophomore star T.J. Parker has been solid on such plays (74.5 PFF grade), the same cannot be said for Clemson’s other edge defenders. Jaheim Lawson, A.J. Hoffler and Cade Denhoff each have sub-60 grades on outside zone runs. As a group, the Tigers’ edge rushers have the third-worst grade in the nation on those plays (49.7). Since Banks and Williams combined for the 17th-best grade among tackle duos on outside zone runs, that could spell a lot of trouble for the Tigers.
Clemson’s pass game against Texas’ pass defense (Max): Can Cade Klubnik be Superman?
Klubnik has finally started to show why he was the top quarterback in the 2022 high school class. The former five-star recruit’s 87.5 passing grade is eighth among all FBS signal-callers this season while his 26 big-time throws stand sixth. Klubnik made this massive leap with just an average supporting cast as well.
Clemson’s team offensive grades:
| Aspect | PFF Grade (FBS Rank) |
| Overall | 79.4 (44th) |
| Passing | 86.0 (11th) |
| Rushing | 85.0 (47th) |
| Receiving | 70.5 (61st) |
| Pass Blocking | 71.3 (63rd) |
| Run Blocking | 60.4 (87th) |
He’ll have his toughest test yet this week against Texas, who owns the top defensive grade in college football (94.0). The Longhorns are first in coverage grade (92.9) and third in pass-rushing grade (90.2). No other defense is in the top five of both. South Carolina is one of three defenses who’s in the top-10 of both metrics, and they gave up just 14 points to Clemson a few weeks ago. And even then, all of those points were scored by Klubnik on two rushing touchdowns.
The Tigers will need Klubnik to be superhuman on Saturday in order for them to have a chance at an upset.
Clemson’s run game against Texas’ run defense (Dalton): Clemson’s interior offensive line vs. Texas’ defensive tackles
To put it plainly, Clemson’s rushing attack has struggled lately. Over the last four games against FBS teams, the Tigers average just 4.1 yards per carry and have posted a 65.4 rushing grade. Cade Klubnik has actually been their most effective runner via a combination of scrambles and quarterback draws.
The primary issue for the Tigers’ difficulty running the ball has been poor blocking on the interior. Clemson never had enough speed in the backfield to consistently run outside this season, so running between the tackles is a major emphasis for its offense. The Tigers' interior offensive line, though, ranks just 83rd in run-blocking grade this season, and their struggles have been exacerbated over the last five games.
They’ll need to figure things out quickly if they are to find any push against Alfred Collins and the Longhorns’ outstanding defensive tackles. Collins ranks fifth among qualified defensive tackles with an 89.1 run defense grade. Fellow interior defenders Vernon Broughton and Jermayne Lole have posted 77.3 and 75.1 grades, respectively, in run defense.
Teams like Georgia, Kentucky, Arkansas who found yardage between the tackles against Texas either won or kept themselves in the game longer than they should have. Clemson can do the same, but it needs to get a better push from their interior offensive line.
Predictions
Texas is certainly the more talented team. The Longhorns could run away with this game if they avoid turnovers. Clemson, though, has a knack for creating those turnovers and is playing with nothing to lose. I expect a relatively low-scoring game, but Texas’ defense carries them through at least one more week.
I struggle to see how the Tigers will consistently score in this game, outside of Quinn Ewers turning the ball over deep in Longhorn territory. On the other side, Texas’ outside zone heavy scheme causes significant problems for Clemson. The Longhorns take care of business at home and move on to face Arizona State in the Peach Bowl.
No. 9 Tennessee Volunteers at No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes (Saturday, 8 PM EST on ABC/ESPN)
Ohio State’s pass game against Tennessee’s pass defense (Max): Can the Buckeyes’ offensive line hold up?
Ohio State’s offensive line has been easily the team’s kryptonite over the last several weeks after season-ending injuries to projected first-round left tackle Josh Simmons and Rimington Award-winning center Seth McLaughlin. Since Week 7 (when Simmons went down), the Buckeyes’ front five has just a 56.0 grade as a unit. That places their offensive line as the seventh worst in the Power Four and 14th worst in the nation over that stretch.
Tennessee‘s defense is among the top 15 in America in pass-rushing grade (12th), pass-rush win rate (13th) and pressure rate (11th). The star of that unit is James Pearce Jr., who leads all FBS edge defenders in pressure rate (24%) while placing third in pass-rush win rate (23%). Pearce is primarily a speed rusher, which could be a major issue against Ohio State with left guard Donovan Jackson kicking out to left tackle.
The Buckeyes’ offensive line’s worst games coincided with their two losses this season (Oregon and Michigan). Both the Ducks and Wolverines have elite defensive lines, something the Volunteers also possess. If Ohio State can consistently protect Will Howard, he should be able to deliver the ball consistently to his elite group of wide receivers. But if they don’t, the Buckeyes could stall out offensively like they did against Michigan.
Ohio State’s run game against Tennessee’s run defense (Dalton): Can Ohio State find a way to run between the tackles?
As mentioned above, Ohio State has been badly hindered by injuries on the offense line. The Buckeyes' run blocking has taken a major hit, especially when they try to run between the tackles.
Through their game against Oregon in Week 7, the Buckeyes averaged an outstanding 7.0 yards per carry between the tackles. Since the conclusion of that game, they average just 4.2 yards per carry between the tackles and have struggled to operate inside against tougher fronts like Nebraska, Indiana, and Michigan.
The perimeter run game has produced consistently all season, but Tennessee ranks third in the nation in run defense grade when opponents run off tackle. The Volunteers' outstanding group of edge players, including James Pearce Jr. and Joshua Josephs, do an excellent job of disallowing rushers from breaking contain.
Conversely, the Volunteers rank just 59th in run-defense grade between the tackles due to the fact that they rarely get out of their four-man front on the defensive line. They’ve played just 19 snaps with an extra defensive lineman on the field this season with most of those coming in short-yardage situations.
Ohio State will need to find production inside as opposed to completely leaning into its perimeter game against a very athletic defense.
Tennessee’s pass game against Ohio State’s pass defense (Dalton): Tennessee’s wide passing attack vs. Denzel Burke and Davison Igbinosun
If there is just one area of the Buckeyes’ defense that could be considered a weakness, it would be their cornerbacks.
Ohio State defensive grades:
| Defensive Line | 6th |
| Linebackers | 9th |
| Safeties | 1st |
| Cornerbacks | 98th |
Ohio State’s cornerbacks, led on the outside by Denzel Burke and Davison Igbinosun, rank 98th in overall grade as a unit and 101st in the FBS in coverage grade. The Buckeyes will be extremely stressed against a Tennessee offensive that emphasizes stretching a defense horizontally and creating space to work with outside with its formations.
During the regular season, excluding conference championship weekend, Tennessee threw the 11th-most passes in the Power Four at or outside the numbers. While Nico Iamaleava has created many explosive plays over the middle lately, these outside throws, along with their run game, are what keep the Volunteers on schedule with regard to down and distance.
Ohio State ranks just 38th among that same group in coverage grade on these throws since Week 5. The Buckeyes' only above-average coverage grades in these scenarios during that span have come against Iowa and Penn State, both of whom very much struggle to throw the ball outside.
Tennessee could be comfortable in the passing game as long as Nico Iamaleava hits the outside throws that are a foundational part of its offense.
Tennessee’s run game against Ohio State’s run defense (Max): Will Dylan Sampson be able to create on his own against an elite defensive front?
Sampson has been one of college football’s best running backs this season. The SEC Offensive Player of the Year tied for the Power Four lead with 22 rushing touchdowns this season while his 927 yards after contact are fourth in that same group. He’s done this without much help from his offensive line, as the Volunteers rank just 78th in team run-blocking grade.
He’ll have to go against one of college football’s best defenses at stopping the run as Ohio State is currently fourth in run-defense grade (94.1). Sampson has found success against some other elite run defenses though, already facing three teams who are in the top-10 of that metric in Oklahoma (third), Alabama (sixth) and Arkansas (eighth). During those three contests, the junior ran for 369 yards and five touchdowns, averaging 5.1 yards per carry.
No Power Four offense has tallied more rushing yards on gap runs more than Tennessee this season (1,623). Gap runs are, by design, meant to overpower defensive lines as every blocker is trying to widen the chosen gap. Ohio State has been very strong against that concept, placing 12th in the FBS in run-defense grade on gap runs (91.2).
If the Volunteers are going to pull off the upset, they’ll need their star running back to produce yet again against one of the best front sevens in the nation.
Predictions
Dalton: Tennessee 19, Ohio State 16
This may be the worst possible matchup that the Buckeyes could have drawn in the first round. It’s going to be a tough defensive game. It may come down to which quarterback keeps his composure. Tennessee has played in these types of games all year, though, and I’ll take an improved Nico Iamaleava to get the biggest win of his young career.
Max: Ohio State 24, Tennessee 17
This game could get ugly as both offensive lines seem significantly outmatched by the opposing defensive line. Outside of that matchup though, the Buckeyes appear to be better than the Volunteers everywhere else. Ohio State puts the loss against Michigan in the rearview mirror and moves on to play top-ranked Oregon in the Rose Bowl, the only other team that’s taken down the Buckeyes this year.
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