- Texas might not be as safe as you’d think: If the Longhorns lose again in the regular season, they might not have the resume to get into the playoffs.
- Could two Group of Five teams get in?: If both Boise State and Army win out, there’s a possibility the playoff includes two schools from the Group of Five.
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Estimated reading time: 6 minutes
Only three weeks are remaining in the 2024 college football regular season. With the inaugural 12-team playoff race starting to take shape, there are still plenty of schools that should feel like they control their own fates.
Here are the paths for the 17 schools that still control their destinies in the College Football Playoff race.
Don’t mess this up: Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State, Alabama, Ole Miss
These schools are all but assured a spot in the College Football Playoff as long as they don’t royally screw it up.
If No. 1 Oregon (10-0) wins one of its remaining two games against Wisconsin and Washington, it locks up a spot no matter what happens in the Big Ten title game since it has the best win of any team in the country (Ohio State).
Speaking of the Buckeyes, second-ranked Ohio State (8-1) can likely survive a loss to No. 5 Indiana since it has a marquee win over Penn State, but the Buckeyes must beat Northwestern and Michigan.
No. 4 Penn State (8-1), No. 10 Alabama (7-2) and No. 11 Ole Miss (8-2) must all win out to get in, but none of the three face a top-40 team in PFF’s power rankings the rest of the way.
Might be able to survive with another loss: Texas, Indiana, BYU, Tennessee
It’s possible that these schools can still get into the playoffs with another loss, but it’s not guaranteed.
Third-ranked Texas (8-1) is one of only two SEC schools with only one loss, but its resume is sorely lacking compared to others. As of right now, the Longhorns’ best win is a three-point victory over a 6-4 Vanderbilt.
No. 7 Tennessee (8-1) is the other one-loss SEC team and could feasibly survive if it loses one of its final three games, most likely on the road against Georgia this Saturday. Unlike Texas, Tennessee has an impressive win over Alabama but its loss to Arkansas is harder to stomach than losing to Georgia like the Longhorns did.
Fifth-ranked Indiana (10-0) and sixth-ranked BYU (9-0) are two of only four undefeated teams left in the country but the fact that they’re ranked that low with perfect marks makes it a little difficult to guarantee they get in even with just one loss. Of the two, the Cougars should have the advantage since they have two top-20 victories over No. 14 SMU and No. 16 Kansas State, while the Hoosiers don’t have a win over any currently-ranked team.
Win out in the regular season: Notre Dame, Georgia, Texas A&M
As long as these schools win their remaining regular season games, they’ll get into the playoffs.
No. 8 Notre Dame (8-1) doesn’t play in a conference, so it must secure one of the seven at-large bids in the playoff. To do that, the Fighting Irish will need to beat Virginia, No. 24 Army and USC over the next three weeks.
No. 12 Georgia (7-2) and No. 15 Texas A&M (7-2) are currently on the outside looking in, but each have a massive game that would launch them back into the field. The Bulldogs take on seventh-ranked Tennessee this Saturday while the Aggies face No. 3 Texas in the last week of the season. If they win out in the regular season, they’ll get in.
Win out: Miami (FL), Boise State, SMU, Colorado, Army
Simply put, these schools must win out in the regular season and win their conference to get into the College Football Playoff.
No. 9 Miami (9-1) and No. 14 SMU (8-1) likely don't have the resumes to get into the playoff even with a loss in the ACC title game, so winning the conference for the automatic bid is a must. And if either of them lose again in the regular season, a school like Clemson could steal its spot in the ACC Championship Game.
No. 17 Colorado (7-2) is in essentially the same boat in the Big 12 as even a 10-3 record with a loss to BYU probably wouldn’t be enough to get in. If the Buffaloes lose again in the regular season, they very likely lose their spot in the conference title game.
While many thought only one Group of Five team would get into the 12-team playoff, there is actually a world where we could get two. No. 13 Boise State (8-1) currently has the inside track and would almost certainly get in if it wins out, including the Mountain West Championship Game. The Broncos’ only loss was by three points to Oregon, the current top-ranked team in America. No. 24 Army (9-0) has an opportunity to score a major victory over eighth-ranked Notre Dame next weekend. If the Black Knights pull off the upset and finish the year undefeated with an AAC Championship, it’d be almost impossible to leave them out, especially considering the AAC title game could pit Army against another ranked team in No. 25 Tulane.
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