2024 College Football Early Bowl Games: Second betting market update

Welcome to PFF's betting market update for Week 2 of the bowl season.

This article will explain the factors that drive line movements in betting markets, helping you assess whether a change is an overreaction or underreaction to these market influences.

If you aren’t familiar, click here for a deeper explanation of what we aim to achieve each week with our NFL version of this article. For the Round 1 CFP version, click here.

Market dynamics are vastly different in bowl games and largely driven by transfer portal entries, player opt-outs, and coaching changes. It’s common to see extreme swings in spreads and totals leading up to and even on gameday as surprise opt-outs are announced. One way to gain an edge in bowl season is handicapping teams' motivation, which is more of an art than a science.

An interesting wrinkle to keep in mind is that players who have entered the portal can still play in bowl games. This trend may become more common with recent developments of NIL and revenue-sharing.

COASTAL CAROLINA VS UTSA

Myrtle Beach Bowl

	Opener	Current Line
Spread	UTSA -7	UTSA -10
Total	57	55.5

Spread: With both QBs for coastal opting out, this line quickly moved out to UTSA -9.5 before a pick release pushed it past 10 and to as high as 12 before we saw some resistance. Coastal will start a freshman at QB Tad Hudson, who will see his first game action. There are still some 10.5s available, but the market consensus at 10.

Total: The first move on the total was a move up to 58.5 before a consistent slide down to 55.5. We have seen a few books return to 56. I don’t foresee this total dropping much further.

Current Portal Players (min 100 snaps):

NORTHERN ILLINOIS VS. FRESNO STATE

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

	Opener	Current Line
Spread	NIL -2	NIL -3
Total	42	39.5

Spread: There are a lot of meaningful players missing on both sides of the ball, including the starting QBs for each team. That has pretty much canceled each other out in the market, as the only move we’ve seen is to the key number of 3. You can still find 2.5s in the market.

Total: The total has reacted to the quality of players missing in this matchup, driving the total down from 42 to 39.5. We’ve yet to see it go any lower than that, but there are still plenty of books with 40 and even some with 40.5.

Current Portal Players (min 100 snaps):

SOUTH FLORIDA VS. SAN JOSE STATE

Hawai’i Bowl

	Opener	Current Line
Spread	SJS -1	SJS -3.5
Total	61.5	61

Spread: There is quite a bit of movement on the spread here. San Jose State quickly reached -3.5 before a pick release helped take that to as high as 6. Since then, it’s been a steady drop back down to 3.5s across the board with news that star WR Nick Nash will be opting out to prepare for the NFL Draft.

Total: Total has stayed relatively flat, bouncing between 60 and 61.5.

Buy/Sell: I’ll fade the move on San Jose State and lock in USF +3.5. This is too much movement with the Bulls not having key skill players opt out.

Current Portal Players (min 100 snaps):

PITTSBURGH VS. TOLEDO

GameAbove Sports Bowl

	Opener	Current Line
Spread	PIT -9.5	PIT -7
Total	51	51

Spread: Uncertainty around the QB position for the Panthers has helped take this line down to only a touchdown. There are a couple of books that have dipped below that number to 6.5.

Total: Total hasn’t budged much at all off of 51.

Current Portal Players (min 100 snaps):

RUTGERS VS. KANSAS STATE

Rate Bowl

	Opener	Current Line
Spread	K State -7	K State -6.5
Total	50.5	50.5

Spread: While most books are still at the opening number of 7, we’ve seen some market-leading books move to 6.5. The board is currently split between those two numbers.

Total: Nothing on the total. As you can see below, there wasn’t a ton of movement for these teams in the portal either.

Current Portal Players (min 100 snaps):

ARKANSAS STATE VS. BOWLING GREEN

68 Ventures Bowl

	Opener	Current Line
Spread	BGN -6.5	BGN -7.5
Total	51	51

Spread: Fueled by reports that Bowling Green will see most of their starters play, this line crossed to the other side of 7 to 7.5. There are still a lot of books at 7 and even one at a reasonably priced -6.5 -120.

Total: The total remains at the opening number of 51. If anything, some momentum is pushing this total down as a couple of books have moved to 50.5.

Buy/Sell: I’ll cherry-pick the last remaining 6.5 -120 at FanDuel, although factoring in line value, it’s essentially the same as taking a -7 at a reduced juice of -105.

Current Portal Players (min 100 snaps):

OKLAHOMA VS. NAVY

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

	Opener	Current Line
Spread	OKLA -10	OKLA -4.5
Total	45	43.5

Spread: As you can see below, Oklahoma receives the transfer portal impact for this bowl game. That impact initially moved this number down to 7 before a pick release pushed this down even further to where it now sits at -4.5. Motivation also comes into play here, especially against a service academy offense.

Total: A slow but steady decrease, the total now sits at 43.5 across the board. We’ve yet to see it dip much further than that and have seen some buyback on the over at 43.5.

Buy/Sell: I’ll fade this big line move and lock in Oklahoma -4.5. The defense has been their bread and butter this year, and while it’s a unique offense they’ll need to prepare for, they’ll be up for it.

Current Portal Players (min 100 snaps):

GEORGIA TECH VS. VANDERBILT

Birmingham Bowl

	Opener	Current Line
Spread	GT -2.5	GT -3
Total	51	51

Spread: Georgia Tech received a bump in the market to -3 on the news that starting QB Haynes King will play. There are plenty of -2.5s still out there. Diego Pavia also looks poised to play for Vandy, and he's off the heels of his courtroom win that currently grants him an extra year of eligibility.

Total: This has bounced back and forth between 50 and 51, but hasn’t eclipsed either of those numbers.

Current Portal Players (min 100 snaps):

TEXAS TECH VS. ARKANSAS

AutoZone Liberty Bowl

	Opener	Current Line
Spread	ARK -1.5	ARK -2
Total	60	55

Spread: This spread has been like a pendulum swing, with Arkansas opening as a small favorite, to Texas Tech being favored by as much as a field goal. That has since swung entirely back in the other direction, with Arkansas being an even bigger favorite than we saw in the opener. The initial move was tied to player movement, but coach movement, particularly both Texas Tech coordinators, has played a role as of late. I doubt we see this reach Arkansas -3.

Total: The first move here was a jump on the total to 62, but since then, it’s been one-way action, moving this total down by a substantial margin. We saw it get as low as 53 before a move back to 55—still some 54.5s on the board.

Current Portal Players (min 100 snaps):

SYRACUSE VS. WASHINGTON STATE

DirecTV Holiday Bowl

	Opener	Current Line
Spread	SYR -6.5	SYR -14
Total	60	59

Spread: Syracuse HC Fran Brown made his feelings known on how he views bowl games. As evidenced by the 7.5-point move making Syracuse a two-touchdown favorite, his program will take them seriously. This is coupled with Washington State losing key players, including QB John Mateer, and nearly the entire coaching staff after HC Jake Dikert took the Wake Forest job. Some books have taken this to 14.5.

Total: The reaction to the total hasn’t been as stark, as we’ve only seen a net 1 point move down to 59. However, this total reached 62 before some of the most recent player and coach news came to light.

Current Portal Players (min 100 snaps):

TEXAS A&M VS. USC

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl

	Opener	Current Line
Spread	TX AM -2	TX AM -3
Total	52	52

Spread: With Texas A&M seeing less of an impact through portal entries and opt-outs, it makes sense to see this line move to 3. That line has continued to 3.5 in some spots, but with those moves, we saw some support for USC.

Total: Not much movement here. Opened at 52, and that’s where the market consensus remains. However, some books have taken this to 51.5.