• Is Toronto edge defender Robbie Smith the next big thing? Smith has recorded 19 total pressures and six pass-rush wins in just three games. His 16.7% pass-rush win rate ranks third in the league, and his pass-rushing productivity score of 8.3 ranks first.
• Alouette interior defender Mustafa Johnson finding early success: Johnson is one of just two CFL defenders with both a run-defense and pass-rush grade above 78.0.
• QB Vernon Adams Jr. is on a historic pace: Adams is currently on pace for a 6,000-yard season, something that hasn’t happened in 20 years. He’s also on track for 32 touchdowns and just five interceptions.
Estimated reading time: 8 minutes
TORONTO ARGONAUTS VS. SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS
The Roughriders sitting alone at the top of the West Division with an unbeaten 3-0 record has to be the early surprise of the season. But that undefeated record is in serious danger this week against the 3-1 Toronto Argonauts, especially now that starting QB Trevor Harris will be out for 4-6 weeks with an MCL sprain.
Harris posted an 87.8 passing grade through his first three games, good for fourth in the league. Now, the team will turn to backup QB Shea Patterson, who struggled to just a 36.1 passing grade in relief last week.
Things will be even harder this week against an Argonauts defense that has two of the best interior pass rushers in the CFL in Jared Brinkman (90.5 PFF grade) and Jake Ceresna (81.8). Toronto lost its first game of the year last week and will be looking to get back on track in this one.
MATCHUP TO WATCH: RT JERMARCUS HARDRICK, SASKATCHEWAN VS. ED ROBBIE SMITH, TORONTO
This offseason, the Riders signed Hardrick to anchor their offensive line and shore up protection issues that have plagued the team over the years. So far, he has done his part. Hardrick has allowed zero sacks and just three quarterback hurries through three games this year. His 99.2 pass-blocking efficiency score is tied for fourth-best among all offensive linemen.
This week, he’ll have to keep up that strong play against the league’s leader in pressures. Smith has recorded 19 total pressures and six pass-rush wins in three games. His 16.7% pass-rush win rate ranks third in the league, and his pass-rushing productivity score of 8.3 ranks first. This matchup is big enough that it alone could dictate how this game goes if either player can get a significant advantage.
PLAYER TO WATCH: RB A.J. OUELLETTE, SASKATCHEWAN
With backup QB Shea Patterson getting the start for Saskatchewan this week, the Riders will almost certainly lean on their run game to help ease the load for him. They brought Ouellette in this offseason for exactly that reason, but unfortunately, he has not exactly lived up to that hype, with his 65.0 rushing grade currently ranking 12th out of the 12 running backs with at least 10 carries this season. He has not been nearly as explosive as last season, with his yards after contact per carry average dropping from 3.9 to just 2.7. Last year, he averaged an explosive run about every seven attempts. This year it’s been over 12 attempts per explosive run. Ouellette is capable of playing better than he has so far this year, and he’ll need to if Saskatchewan wants to win this game against his former team.
OTTAWA REDBLACKS VS. WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS
Nobody, absolutely nobody, predicted that the Winnipeg Blue Bombers would be winless through their first four games of the season. Their offense has looked inconsistent, their defense inexperienced, and despite a veteran-laden team, they’ve been unable to pull ahead in any of their last three one-score games.
They’ll get an early rematch against a 2-1 Redblacks team already halfway to its 2023 win total. It looks like the Bombers will be without QB Zach Collaros, too, which means Chris Streveler will get the start. The rushing specialist has plenty of starting experience, and the Bombers have to hope he can lean on that to get them their first win.
Ottawa will also be hoping to get stronger play from their own QB, former Winnipeg backup Dru Brown. Brown has just three big-time throws this season and a 60.6 passing grade, the lowest among all CFL quarterbacks.
MATCHUP TO WATCH: WR JUSTIN HARDY, OTTAWA VS. HB DEATRICK NICHOLS, WINNIPEG
Hardy had a solid rookie season in 2022. He followed that up with a 1,000-yard season in 2023 and is now seemingly having that breakout season where he jumps into that top-echelon receiver conversation. His 80.3 receiving grade and his 2.98 yards per route run average rank second in the CFL, trailing only BC’s Alexander Hollins.
Hardy may be excited at the prospect of going against Nichols this week. The Bombers defensive halfback has been fairly average in his three games so far this year, earning just a 63.2 coverage grade. He’s allowed 10 catches for 82 yards and just two first downs but hasn’t broken up a single pass. That might need to change quickly if he wants to contain Hardy.
PLAYER TO WATCH: WR NIC DEMSKI, WINNIPEG
The Blue Bombers have taken hit after hit this season at the WR position. Kenny Lawler is still out for a while longer, and now they’ve lost All-Star WR Dalton Schoen for the rest of the season.
With those two out, the top receiver role falls to Demski. The slotback has been fantastic over the past couple of seasons but has never had the pressure of being a No. 1. Demski is currently the 11th-highest-graded receiver in the league this season, thanks to three contested catches and a 1.65 yards per route run average.
He’ll have to step up, especially with backup QB Chris Streveler getting the start this week. If Demski can be a safety blanket for Streveler, they might be able to grind their way to their first win.
CALGARY STAMPEDERS VS. MONTREAL ALOUETTES
The Alouettes look like an absolute wagon to start the 2023 season. They’ve won 12 straight games dating back to last season and just handled a very strong Toronto Argonauts team last week. Quarterback Cody Fajardo is playing fantastic football, currently ranking third in the CFL in big-time throw percentage while also having the third-lowest turnover-worthy play percentage.
Calgary has been a bit of a pleasant surprise, too, especially the play of Jake Maier. The quarterback currently ranks second in the league in passing grade (90.5) and looks much more comfortable in the pocket than in years past.
This game may come down to Maier and him figuring out a way to do something that no team has done in their past 12 games: find a way to move the ball against this incredible Montreal defense.
MATCHUP TO WATCH: LT NICK CALLENDER, MONTREAL VS. ED JULIAN HOWSARE, CALGARY
One of the ways for a defense to find success against Montreal QB Cody Fajardo is to get him under pressure. The problem is that Montreal’s offensive line is so good that he’s almost never under pressure. They are anchored by Callender, one of the best left tackles in the CFL. He’s allowed zero sacks this season and just eight pressures on 165 pass-blocking snaps.
Calgary's Howsare, meanwhile, ranks fifth in the league with 12 total pressures. His pass-rushing productivity score of 7.1 ranks second, and his 15.5% pass-rush win rate ranks fifth. Howsare is one of the best pass rushers in the CFL, and he’ll need to show that against Callender if Calgary wants any chance of stopping this Montreal offense.
PLAYER TO WATCH: DI MUSTAFA JOHNSON, MONTREAL
The highest-graded interior defender from a year ago has picked up right where he left off. Johnson has been dominant for Montreal, wreaking havoc in both the run and pass game of his opponents. He’s one of just two CFL defenders to have a run-defense and pass-rush grade above 78.0. He leads the CFL with a pass-rush win rate of 18.5%. His eight run-game tackles are third-most among defensive linemen.
Johnson can single-handedly blow up any offensive play, and he’s been a huge part of why Montreal’s defense allows a measly 16.3 points per game. If Calgary can’t find a way to slow him down in this game, it’s hard to see them coming out on top.
BRITISH COLUMBIA LIONS VS. HAMILTON TIGER-CATS
The Lions lost their first game of the season but haven’t looked back since, winning their last three games with a fantastic offense and stellar defensive play. The rich may be getting richer, too, as All-Star receiver Keon Hatcher is starting to return to practice for the Lions. He won’t return for this game against the Tiger-Cats, but it might not matter.
Hamilton is struggling, starting the season with four straight losses. They’ve been down to the wire in a couple but just haven’t figured out how to pull it out late. They’ll need better play from QB Bo Levi Mitchell. The veteran put up an 87.4 grade over his first two games of the season but just 62.4 over the past two.
MATCHUP TO WATCH: RG SUKH CHUNGH, BRITISH COLUMBIA VS. DI CASEY SAYLES, HAMILTON
If there’s a weakness in this Lions offense, it’s their interior offensive line. Chungh has struggled this season thus far and will really need to step up. His 46.7 pass-blocking grade ranks bottom-five in the league at 46.7, and his run-blocking grade is right around average at 62.2.
Meanwhile, Sayles has an early case for Most Outstanding Defender this season. His 76.3 run-defense grade ranks 10th among all defensive linemen, and his 85.5 pass-rush grade ranks first. His 82.5 overall grade is the second-highest among all defensive players in the CFL, and his significant snap count means it's not just a small sample size. Sayles has been dominant in the middle, and if he continues that this week, it could be just what Hamilton needs to get that first victory.
PLAYER TO WATCH: QB VERNON ADAMS JR., BRITISH COLUMBIA
What Adams has done so far this season has been phenomenal. He’s currently on pace for a 6,000-yard season, which hasn’t happened in 20 years. He’s also pacing for 32 touchdowns to just five interceptions. He’s not just getting lucky, either. Adams has 15 big-time throws to just one turnover-worthy play. Both of those numbers are the best in the league. He’s had three touchdown passes dropped, along with two other 40-plus-yard throws. Not to mention, he’s doing all of this without last season’s highest-graded WR in the CFL, Keon Hatcher. Adams has become must-watch television this season — look for him to continue that level of play in this week’s game.
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