CFL Week 16 Preview: Hamilton tries to keep playoff hopes alive against Toronto

2XDNHJP Regina, Canada. 23rd June, 2024. Hamilton Tiger-Cats receiver Shemar Bridges (17) celebrates with receiver Kiondre Smith (85) and offensive lineman David Beard (51) after scoring a touchdown against Saskatchewan Roughriders during the first half of CFL football action in Regina, on Sunday, June 23, 2024. Credit: The Canadian Press/Alamy Live News

• Keep an eye on Hamilton rookie WR Shemar Bridges: He’s caught the second-most passes at 73 and ranks top-10 in yards per route run average (1.57) and explosive receptions (22)

• Ottawa WR Justin Hardy enjoying career-best season: His 1.99 yards per route run average is the third-highest in the CFL and his 77.5 receiving grade is second-best.

• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all of our in-season fantasy tools, including weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer and more. Sign up now!

Estimated reading time: 8 minutes


HAMILTON TIGER-CATS VS. TORONTO ARGONAUTS

The Tiger-Cats put up their most impressive performance of the season last week, as they dominated the Ottawa Redblacks 37-21 for their second straight win. While they are still three games behind the Argonauts for the final playoff spot in the East Division, the Tiger-Cats are only a game and a half back of being the first East team to ever cross over to the West playoffs. A loss here all but dooms their chances of making any real run at the playoffs with just five games remaining. Toronto meanwhile, needs a win to gain ground on the Redblacks for a chance to host a playoff game. QB Chad Kelly was the highest-graded quarterback last week (90.2) and if he continues to play at that level, this Argos team could be making a late-season run.  

MATCHUP TO WATCH: WR SHEMAR BRIDGES, HAMILTON VS. CB BENJIE FRANKLIN, TORONTO

It might surprise many to learn that Bridges, a rookie, currently leads the whole league in receiving snaps played. He’s caught the second-most passes at 73 and ranks top 10 in yards per route run average (1.57) and explosive receptions (22). He’ll be going up against one of the CFL's most physical corners in Franklin. The Toronto corner has an impressive 78.8 coverage grade this year and ranks second with 11 forced incompletions. However, he surrenders 1.40 yards per coverage snap, which is the fifth-highest mark in the league. Franklin will give up yards but makes a lot of big plays to make up for it. Hamilton will look to take advantage of that with its impressive rookie receiver. 

PLAYER TO WATCH: DI CASEY SAYLES, HAMILTON

Nobody in the CFL has a higher pass-rushing grade than Sayles’ 90.0 this season. The interior defensive lineman has been a force of nature when it comes to getting after the quarterback. Sayles has 40 total pressures, the most among interior defenders. His 13.8% pass-rush win rate ranks seventh among all defenders, and he’s had a league-leading 31 pass rushes with a grade of +1 or better. He also ranks second in the CFL with four batted passes. Sayles is no slouch when it comes to stopping the run either. He’s made 15 solo stops against the run, the fifth-most in the league. 


SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS VS. CALGARY STAMPEDERS

The Roughriders’ playoff hopes are hanging on by a thread. The Roughriders started the season 5-1 and sat comfortably atop the West Division. Since then they’ve gone 0-6-1 and are now only a half-game ahead of Edmonton for the final playoff spot in the West. More importantly, at least when it comes to this game, they’re just one game ahead of Calgary. A win for the Stampeders would allow them to control their destiny down the stretch to the playoffs. They got a decent game out of QB Jake Maier in his return to the starting lineup last week (66.3 game grade), but he was benched in Week 14 for a reason. Calgary needs better from him, especially going up against a defense that has as much talent as Saskatchewan.

MATCHUP TO WATCH: WR REGGIE BEGELTON, CALGARY VS. HB DAMARCUS FIELDS, SASKATCHEWAN

Since Week 9, there’s been no better receiver in the CFL than Reggie Begelton. In that span, the Stampeder slotback leads the league in catches (42), yards (601), missed tackles forced (16), explosive receptions (13) and ranks second in yards per route run (2.56). Fields has allowed 35 catches for 499 yards this season while breaking up four passes and picking off another. Only 14 of those catches have gone for first downs, one of the best first downs surrendered rate among halfbacks in the CFL. Fields doesn’t get the attention that his secondary cohorts Rolan Milligan and Marcus Sayles have gotten at times this season, but he’s been very solid. If he can slow down Begelton, it’ll be a good day for Saskatchewan.

PLAYER TO WATCH: QB TREVOR HARRIS, SASKATCHEWAN

While Harris hasn’t been even close to bad since his return from injury, he still needs to work on some things if he wants to lead Saskatchewan out of this winless slump. The quarterback has a second-best 90.5 passing grade this season but has an equal 12 big-time throws and 12 turnover-worthy plays. Eight of those have come in his last three games alone. Harris has always been known for his pinpoint accuracy, and his 78.1% adjusted completion rate shows that he hasn’t lost that touch. Nonetheless, he needs to stop forcing throws into coverage and turning the ball over. If he can do that while continuing to be accurate and add his occasional big-time throw, Saskatchewan should be able to come out on top. 


MONTREAL ALOUETTES VS. OTTAWA REDBLACKS

The Redblacks are in a great spot as we enter the stretch run of the season, despite the tough loss last week. Ottawa is a game and a half ahead of Toronto for the second spot in the East and an all-important home playoff game. The Redblacks are 6-0-1 at home, so getting that homefield advantage is huge for them. QB Dru Brown is going to have to be very careful with the football, something he’s struggled with this season. He leads the CFL with 25 turnover-worthy plays, seven more than second-most. The Alouettes have a two-game cushion for the top spot in the CFL, and a win here would all but guarantee them that No. 1 seed. Montreal has suddenly looked beatable after tying and losing their past two games. A big performance from QB Cody Fajardo (84.9 season grade) would go a long way in this one.  

MATCHUP TO WATCH: RT JOSH DONOVAN, MONTREAL VS. EDGE LORENZO MAULDIN IV, OTTAWA

Mauldin has been one of the CFL's premier pass-rushers over the past two seasons. In 2022, he was the Most Outstanding Defensive player and had 67 total pressures. Last year, he nearly matched that with 65 pressures. This season, with five games remaining, he already has 64 total pressures, the most in the league by a large margin. Donovan is also a league leader, but in the wrong kind of way. His 36 total pressures allowed is the most in the CFL and his 95.5 pass-blocking efficiency rating is the third-lowest in the league. He’s been the one weak link on a very impressive Montreal offensive line. If Mauldin can find success against Donovan, it could be the difference-maker.

PLAYER TO WATCH: WR JUSTIN HARDY, OTTAWA

A year after breaking 1,000 yards in a season in his final game, Hardy shattered that mark by doing it with five games remaining. Hardy ranks second in the league with 31 explosive receptions and fifth with 11 contested catches. His 1.99 yards per route run average is the third-highest in the CFL and his 77.5 receiving grade is second-best. Hardy is proving to be one of the top receivers in the entire league. If Ottawa is going to keep this very impressive season going, it’s going to include big games from their newest star receiver. This could be one of those games against a very good Montreal defense.


WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS VS. EDMONTON ELKS

If you looked ahead to this game in Week 8, it looked like it might decide the bottom of the West Division. Winnipeg was 2-6, and Edmonton was 0-7 and both looked like their seasons were lost. Since then, Winnipeg has won five straight, while Edmonton has gone 5-1. They went from two of the worst teams to the two hottest. Winnipeg sits atop the West Division, while Edmonton is a mere half-game out of the final playoff spot. Winnipeg has been winning at times despite QB Zach Collaros, who has not looked anywhere close to the dominant QB of the past few years. His 72.8 season grade in 2024 is a significant step back from 2023 (86.4) and 2022 (87.3). Edmonton has been enjoying success at quarterback no matter if it’s McLeod Bethel-Thompson (90.5) or Tre Ford (83.5). Ford will be getting the start in this one, however.  

MATCHUP TO WATCH: QB TRE FORD, EDMONTON VS. CB TYRELL FORD, WINNIPEG

This isn’t a direct matchup per se, but seeing the twin brothers go against each other is going to be a fun sight. The quarterbacking Ford has been impressive in his limited playing time this season, posting an 88.0 passing grade with five big-time throws to just one turnover-worthy play on 50 passing attempts. He’s one of the most electric quarterbacks in the league. Across the field, the same could be said about the defensive Ford. The Winnipeg corner has helped spark their season turnaround with a league-leading six interceptions and 15 forced incompletions. He leads the league with a 92.1 coverage grade. Whichever Ford brother has the better game could decide this entire matchup. 

PLAYER TO WATCH: ED WILLIE JEFFERSON, WINNIPEG

Big Willie Jefferson played his first snap in the CFL a decade ago. The fact that he’s still doing what he’s doing ten years later is nothing short of incredible. Jefferson’s 80.9 pass-rushing grade is the second-highest among edge rushers. He has 46 total pressures, tied for third-most among any position. His pass-rush win rate (13.9%), pressure rate (10.3%) and pass-rushing productivity score (5.8) are all top-six marks. Of course, he once again leads the league in batted passes with seven. Jefferson’s batted pass numbers are incredible. Over the past three seasons that PFF has graded the CFL, Jefferson has batted 33 passes, nearly triple any other defender.  

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