• Much more is needed from QB Chad Kelly in Toronto: Kelly has made four big-time throws to nine turnover-worthy plays, a 71.0% adjusted completion rate and a 64.4 passing grade.
• RB Greg Bell is proving Hamilton right for trusting him: He’s averaging an explosive run every three carries, the highest mark in the league since he took over the starting RB job.
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Estimated reading time: 7 minutes
TORONTO ARGONAUTS VS. BRITISH COLUMBIA LIONS
The B.C. Lions have finally righted the ship. After a stretch in which they lost five straight, they’ve now dominated two weeks in a row. They’re getting improved play from QB Nathan Rourke (65.9 overall grade) while RB William Stanback (91.0 rushing grade) has run for over 85 yards in his last five straight games. The Argonauts have lost two straight and find themselves three games back in the race for a home playoff game in the East. That’s important to note because the Argos are an impressive 5-1 at home but an unfortunate 1-5 on the road. The Argonauts' pass rush, which started the year impressively, has cooled off in recent weeks. It has ranked middle-of-the-pack in team pressure percentage and pass-rush win rate. They Argonauts will need DI Jake Ceresna (82.5 overall grade) and EDGE Folarin Orimolade (81.5) to step up if they want to get this season back on track.
MATCHUP TO WATCH: LG RYAN HUNTER, TORONTO VS. DI JONAH TAVAI, BRITISH COLUMBIA
Tavai has only played six games this season, but in those games, he’s played incredibly well. His 87.5 overall grade in that span ranks second among all defensive players, and he’s the only one to have both a pass-rush grade and run defence grade above 80.0. The Argonauts have been arguably the best offensive line in the CFL this season, and Hunter is a big reason why. He ranks third in the CFL with a 73.3 run-blocking grade while also ranking sixth among guards with a 67.6 pass-blocking grade. If Hunter can slow down Tavai in the middle, it could give the Toronto offense enough of an advantage in both the run and pass game this weekend.
PLAYER TO WATCH: QB CHAD KELLY, TORONTO
It hasn’t been quite the return that Kelly and the Argonauts were hoping for. Since his first game back, Kelly has made four big-time throws to nine turnover-worthy plays, a 71.0% adjusted completion rate and a 64.4 passing grade. All of these rank right in the five-to-six range out of 10 qualified quarterbacks in that span. While Kelly certainly hasn’t been bad, this Toronto team is not good enough to win consistently without him playing at an elite level. Toronto needs the 2023 Kelly who could push the ball downfield accurately while still avoiding turnovers. This game, against a weaker Lions defence, is a great opportunity for him to try to get back to that level.
OTTAWA REDBLACKS VS. HAMILTON TIGER-CATS
No team has been more impressive compared to expectations than the Ottawa Redblacks. They’re currently second in the CFL with an 8-3-1 record and with a win this week, they would clinch their first playoff appearance since 2018. Standing in their way is a Hamilton team that was just fighting to stay alive in the playoff race last week. A win in their last game against Toronto was huge, but a loss in this one would be devastating for their chances. Hamilton will need to find a way to slow down this Ottawa passing attack, led by QB Dru Brown and WR Justin Hardy. Brown has a chance to go over 3,000 yards passing for the season in this game, while Hardy could break 1,000 receiving yards with a big game. If Hamilton can’t contain those two, it could be a long game.
MATCHUP TO WATCH: RG DARIUSZ BLADEK, OTTAWA VS. DI CASEY SAYLES, HAMILTON
One of the biggest reasons for Ottawa’s huge turnaround this season has been the improvement of their offensive line. The Bladek addition in the offseason was the biggest factor. Bladek has allowed pressure on just 3.8% of his pass-blocking snaps, one of the best marks among guards. But he’ll have to do it against the best defensive lineman in the CFL this season. Sayles leads the CFL with an 89.0 pass-rush grade. His 38 total pressures are the most among interior defenders. The last time these two met, Bladek allowed just one pressure on 15 matchups against Sayles. If he can do that again, it could be an easy day passing the football for Ottawa QB Dru Brown.
PLAYER TO WATCH: RB GREG BELL, HAMILTON
One way for Hamilton to slow down this impressive Ottawa aerial attack is to simply keep it off the field. The Tiger-Cats can do that by controlling the clock with an impressive rushing attack. The Tiger-Cats elevated Bell to their starting RB position in Week 11, and he’s looked impressive in every game he’s played. His 10 missed tackles forced in that span rank second in the league, as does his 4.1 yards after contact per carry mark. He’s averaging an explosive run every three carries, the highest mark in the league since he took over the starting RB job.
MONTREAL ALOUETTES VS. CALGARY STAMPEDERS
The Alouettes suffered their second loss of the season last week, and suddenly find themselves in a bit of a battle at the top of the standings. A Montreal loss this week coupled with an Ottawa win would give the Alouettes just a half-game lead in the East Division that they seemed to have locked up so early in the season. They’ll have a good chance to bounce back against a Calgary team that has lost four straight and now sits at the bottom of the West Division. The Stampeders tried to switch things up by starting QB Logan Bonner last week, but it did not pay off. Bonner recorded six turnover-worthy plays and just one big-time throw. If he gets the start again, he’ll need to do a much better job of not turning the ball over, especially when the quarterback across from him, Montreal’s Cody Fajardo, is the best in the CFL at avoiding turnover-worthy plays (2.3% rate).
MATCHUP TO WATCH: WR REGGIE BEGELTON, CALGARY VS. HB BRYCE COSBY, MONTREAL
The one bright spot for Calgary lately has been Reggie Begelton's resurgence. The slotback had a slow start to the season but has turned it around. Since Week 9, Begelton leads the CFL in receptions (35), yards (533), missed tackles forced (14), explosive receptions (12) and receiving grade (81.5). Montreal’s Cosby figures to see a lot of Begelton in coverage and is going to have to step up if he wants to limit the damage Begelton can cause. So far this season, Cosby has allowed 36 catches for 383 yards and a touchdown. His 65.2 coverage grade is right around league average, but he’ll need to be better than average against a guy of Begelton’s calibre.
PLAYER TO WATCH: DI MIKE ROSE, CALGARY
Rose was one of the best defensive linemen in the CFL last season and is starting to get back to that form after a slow start to the 2024 season. Over the past four weeks, Rose’s 84.3 overall grade ranks fourth in the CFL. His 15.9% pass-rush win rate ranks fourth and his 78.6 pass-rush grade is the highest. He also had an incredible pick-six last week after sniffing out and stepping in front of a screen pass. Rose is capable of affecting a game both with his pass rush and his stellar run-defense ability. If Calgary is going to have a chance at beating Montreal this weekend, it’s going to have to start in the trenches with Rose.
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