Vernon Adams Jr. is on pace for a historically good season, and he's showing no signs of slowing

Vernon Adams Jr. is on pace for a historically good season through five games: Adams is currently on pace for 6,300 passing yards, 40 passing touchdowns, 400 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns.

And his stats should be even better: Adams has had five potential touchdown passes that were either dropped or not caught for other reasons.

He’s helped by throwing to receivers Alexander Hollins and Justin McInnis: Hollins (82.6) and McInnis (82.5) currently rank first and second in the league in PFF receiving grade.

Estimated reading time: 6 minutes

In 1991, B.C. Lions quarterback Doug Flutie had what many consider the greatest season by a quarterback in CFL history. That year, Flutie threw for 6,619 yards and 38 touchdowns while adding 610 rushing yards and 14 rushing touchdowns. Only three other quarterbacks in CFL history have surpassed 6,000 passing yards, and Flutie remains the only quarterback to record 50 total touchdowns in a single season.

But five weeks into the 2024 season, Vernon Adams Jr. — another Lions quarterback — has a chance to etch his name into the CFL history books.

The Lions' eight-year pro is currently on pace for 6,300 passing yards, 40 passing touchdowns, 400 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns. More impressively, he is on pace to throw just four interceptions.

Flutie threw 24 interceptions in his magical 1991 season, still good for an impressive 52-24 touchdown-to-interception ratio. But Adams is on track to record a 44-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio, which would be absolutely unheard of.

So, can Adams keep up this pace all season?

Vernon Adams Jr.: PFF passing metrics and rank among CFL quarterbacks (Week 1 to Week 5)

To answer that question, we must look at what Adams has done beyond his basic numbers. Through five games, Adams has earned a 95.2 passing grade and posted an average depth of target of 13.9 yards, which is a yard more than any quarterback in the CFL since 2022.

His passing grade would be the highest PFF has ever recorded since we started grading CFL games.

His high grade is mainly due to his unbelievable rate of big-time throws and his incredibly low rate of turnover-worthy plays.

Quarterbacks, even during statistically great seasons, typically benefit to some extent from turnover luck. In 2022, Winnipeg’s Zach Collaros threw 37 touchdowns to just 14 interceptions, but his 34 big-time throws to 24 turnover-worthy plays presented a much closer ratio. It’s the same in the NFL, too. For example, Aaron Rodgers’ incredible 2020 season saw him put up a 48-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio, but his BTT-TWP ratio was 41-12.

Adams currently has 19 big-time throws to just one turnover-worthy play. He has not benefited from any turnover luck. In fact, the argument can be made that he’s been unlucky this season, as only 11 of his 19 big-time throws have actually been caught.

Vernon Adams Jr.: Passing stats since 2022

So far this season, Adams has had five potential touchdown passes that were either dropped or not caught for other reasons.

One of the most telling (and frankly incredible) numbers of his season so far is that his passing grade on incomplete passes is 65.6. That’s not only significantly better than the average (31.1), but it would rank higher than the overall passing grade of four other QBs who have started at least one game this season.

Despite pushing the ball downfield more than any other quarterback in the league, Adams has been one of the most accurate throwers and has avoided any dangerous turnover-worthy plays.

We have seen quarterbacks get off to hot starts before. Keeping it up throughout an entire season is hard. For Adams, though, maintaining this level of play might be more likely than it seems.

The main reason for that is the weaponry at his disposal, namely wide receivers Alexander Hollins (82.6) and Justin McInnis (82.5), who rank first and second in the league in PFF receiving grade entering Week 6.

Hollins is one of the best zone-beaters in the league, having gotten open 66.7% of the time he runs a route against zone coverage. McInnis is a perfect complement as a man-beater, as he has gotten open 66.7% of the time he runs a route against man coverage.

Better yet, the Lions will get Keon Hatcher back from injury in a few weeks. The highest-graded receiver in the CFL a year ago, Hatcher got open on over 60% of his routes last year, regardless of what the defense was playing.

If he’s been able to do what he’s done with just Hollins and McInnis, imagine what this offense will look like when Hatcher is back.

With all three of them on the field, Adams is almost guaranteed to have an open receiver on any given dropback. All he has to do is find them, which has not been a problem for him this season.

CFL quarterbacks: Highest accurate pass rate through Week 5

There are certainly reasons to doubt Adams' ability to keep up this torrid pace. For starters, he lines up behind one of the worst offensive lines in the CFL. Through five weeks, no quarterback has been pressured more often than Adams. But on those pressured plays, the B.C. signal-caller has recorded a 75.6% adjusted completion rate, along with seven big-time throws and one turnover-worthy play, good for a 90.4 passing grade.

So, the simple fact is that the pressure hasn’t slowed him down at all.

Being pressured a lot also leads to more hits and more potential for injury, which has been an issue for Adams in the past. But this season, he has been hit on just 15.6% of the plays where his offensive line loses a pass block. That’s one of the best marks in the league and shows that he’s not taking many more hits than the average quarterback.

One of the biggest obstacles to a historically good passing season is playing time. If a team gets up big early, they stop passing the football. That said, the Lions defense has fallen to the middle of the pack this season, allowing 25.0 points per game. This means that they may struggle to put games away early, which in turn means that Adams will stay in the game and pass the football.

Other smaller factors also favor Adams. The first is that B.C. will play the vaunted Alouettes defense only twice this year. The second is that the team will play five of its final seven games at home in its dome. Last but by no means least, the Lions' run game is just average.

And these are all factors that could contribute to Adams continuing his historically good pace.

There’s a reason only four quarterbacks in CFL history have thrown for 6,000 yards, and only five have thrown 40-plus touchdowns. It’s not easy to keep up that pace over an 18-game season. All it takes is one fluke injury or a couple of bad games.

But based on his level of play so far and all the factors he has going his way for the rest of the season, there’s reason to be optimistic about his chances.