• History on Toronto’s side: The Argonauts and Blue Bombers have played each other seven times in Grey Cup history, with the Argos winning all seven of those championship games.
• Former Grey Cup M.O.P QB Zach Collaros playing well as of late: Collaros has made 13 big-time throws over his last five games compared to just six turnover-worthy plays.
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Estimated reading time: 7 minutes
TORONTO ARGONAUTS VS. WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS
HOW TORONTO GOT HERE
The Argonauts came into the season knowing they’d be missing their quarterback, 2023’s Most Outstanding Player Chad Kelly, for at least half of the season. They survived his absence using a combination of Cameron Dukes (63.1 passing grade) and Nick Arbuckle (66.6), going 5-4 over the first half of the season. They continued to struggle after his return but seemed to figure it out down the stretch. Toronto won four of its final six games and those two losses were by a combined three points. The Argonauts crushed the Ottawa Redblacks in the East Division Semi-Finals 58-38 before sneaking past the defending champion Montreal Alouettes 30-28 last weekend. That win came with a cost, however, as Kelly seriously injured his leg and will not be playing in the Grey Cup. The Argos are coming into this Grey Cup on a run of six wins in their last eight games, which would be impressive if not for the run that their opponent is on.
HOW WINNIPEG GOT HERE
The Blue Bombers's season story is as impressive as any Grey Cup team in recent memory. After four straight Grey Cup appearances but two straight losses in the big game, the Bombers started the year losing four straight. After eight games, they were 2-6 and at the bottom of the West Division. There was talk that Winnipeg’s epic run of success was finally coming to an end. However, the Bombers turned it around, winning 10 of their last 11 games en route to their fifth straight Grey Cup game. Their offense found success behind RB Brady Oliveira (93.1 rushing grade) and a defense that improved week after week. That defense finished the year as the No. 1 defense in the league, allowing just 19.9 points and 328.6 yards per game on average. The Bombers are hot, no doubt about it, but the one thing working against them? Their last two losses this season have both been against the Argonauts.
SEASON SERIES: 2-0 TORONTO
These teams first met in Week 8, a game in which the Argonauts gained just 204 total yards and yet came away with a 16-14 overtime victory. The two teams met again in Week 19, where Toronto once again won a defensive battle 14-11. Both games saw a heavy dose of defense and two offenses that struggled to move the ball effectively. The Argonauts and Blue Bombers have played each other seven times in Grey Cup history, with the Argos winning all seven of those championship games.
QUARTERBACK MATCHUP: ZACH COLLAROS, WINNIPEG VS. NICK ARBUCKLE, TORONTO
The quarterback matchup in this one could not be more different. On one hand, there’s Zach Collaros, who is the three-time Grey Cup-winning, two-time Most Outstanding Player award-winning, future Hall of Fame quarterback. Across from him will be Nick Arbuckle, who is the Toronto backup quarterback thrust into the spotlight after starter Chad Kelly’s injury last week. Arbuckle has actually played solid in his limited appearances this year. His 79.8 passing grade is just slightly better than Collaros’ 79.7, though he’s played almost 500 fewer snaps. He’s made five big-time throws and four turnover-worthy plays. He’s a solid quarterback when not asked to do too much. Compared to Collaros, who is asked to do everything. It hasn’t been his best season by any means, but he’s coming off one of his best games of the season last week. Collaros has made 13 big-time throws over his last five games, compared to just six turnover-worthy plays.
TORONTO PLAYER TO WATCH: CB TARVARUS MCFADDEN
McFadden’s first game of the season was in Week 8 against Winnipeg and now, his last game will be against the same team. In that span, McFadden has been one of the best corners in the game. Over the span, McFadden has allowed just 25 catches on 49 targets for 272 yards. Only 11 of those catches have gone for first downs. He’s picked off two passes and forced incompletions on nine others. McFadden is allowing just 0.47 yards per coverage snap on average, which is the second-lowest average in the CFL. He’s been a legitimate shutdown corner for the Argos and he’ll play a big part in trying to slow down this Winnipeg deep passing attack.
WINNIPEG PLAYER TO WATCH: EDGE WILLIE JEFFERSON
When Big Willie Jefferson finally decides to retire, he’ll surely go down as one of the CFL's all-time great edge rushers. While he has just six sacks this season, his 51 total pressures are the fourth-most in the league, proving that he’s still a very effective pass-rusher. Not to mention he’s still got his calling card, batted passes. He leads the league there with 11 (the next highest is four). In two games against Toronto, Jefferson has a solid 13.2% pass-rush win rate, but he’s failed to record a sack or a hit on any of those wins, just quarterback hurries. He’ll need to find a way to get home in this one. A key sack here, a batted pass there, and he could come away with his fourth career Grey Cup win.
TORONTO WILL WIN IF: THEY KEEP THE GAME OFF NICK ARBUCKLE’S SHOULDERS
While Nick Arbuckle has been solid this year, he really hasn’t played enough football for the Argos to feel comfortable leaning on him to win the game. It’s a small sample size, but Arbuckle has a 92.0 passing grade on second down and less than eight yards to go, but a 62.9 grade on second-and-long. One way to help Arbuckle out on first down will be to get the ball into the hands of Toronto’s playmakers. RB Ka’Deem Carey has forced 58 missed tackles on the ground and 14 through the air, the most broken tackles of any runningback this season. WR Damonte Coxie leads all CFL receivers by a large margin with 34 missed tackles forced after the catch. If they can break a few tackles and put the Toronto offense in more favorable positions, Arbuckle can do enough to win this game for the Argos.
WINNIPEG WILL WIN IF: QB ZACH COLLAROS CAN STAY UPRIGHT
In their two losses to the Argonauts this season, Winnipeg QB Zach Collaros has been sacked 12 times. That’s 32% of his sacks in just 10% of their games. Now, not all of those sacks were on the offensive line. Some of them were the result of Collaros bailing from a clean pocket and running into a defensive player. Still, Winnipeg’s offensive line allowed 26 pressures in those two games and had an additional 17 pass-blocking losses. That 79.6 pass-blocking efficiency score simply won’t cut it in the Grey Cup. If they can’t pass protect cleanly, Collaros is going to be more likely to bail from clean pockets because he’s afraid it won’t hold for much longer. Collaros is still one of the premier deep passing QBs in the CFL (91.0 passing grade, 54.2% adjusted completion rate on throws 15-plus yards downfield). He needs time for those routes to set up, and he wasn’t able to get it in those two previous losses to Toronto. This game needs to be different if Winnipeg wants to win their third Grey Cup in five years.
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