• Rams QB Matthew Stafford Under 13.5 interceptions, BetMGM
• 49ers QB Trey Lance to be named NFL MVP, +4000 on FanDuel
• Learn more about how turnover-worthy plays can help bet NFL interception props
Despite the 2022 offseason nearly being over, with many of the premiere betting opportunities (win totals, outrights) already pounded into place, the books can’t get everything right.
In this article, I go through one bet I like for each NFC West team. Enjoy!
Los Angeles Rams (+125 to win the division on BetMGM, season win total of 10.5)
Bet to Make: Matthew Stafford under 13.5 interceptions (-115) on betmgm
This is one of those bets that can cash because of a good thing (Stafford avoiding interceptions) or a bad thing (Stafford getting injured). Stafford led the NFL last year with 17 interceptions, but he produced just the fifth-most turnover-worthy plays (25). Usually roughly half of turnover-worthy plays become interceptions, so if Stafford kept that same pace in 2022, he is more likely to go under the total than over.
San Francisco 49ers (+175, 10)
Bet to Make: Trey Lance league MVP +4000 on FanDuel
This is a bit of a longshot, but our simulations have the 49ers basically on market for season win total, division outright and Super Bowl odds (+1600). Conditional on the 49ers being a good enough team to go over their season win total and be in Super Bowl contention, Lance is a very good bet to have played well. The Kyle Shanahan system has supported a league MVP before, but not a coach of the year, which we talked about here. Bet Lance.
Arizona Cardinals (+350, 8.5)
Bet to Make: Arizona to make the playoffs +125 on DraftKings
We give the Cardinals a 53.5 percent chance to make the playoffs, which makes them not making the playoffs, which is a price of -115. I’ve personally been low on the Cardinals for much of the offseason, as their defense is a bit suspect and their early-season schedule — when they usually pile up wins — is not as favorable to them as it could be — with the Chiefs, Raiders and Rams their first three on the schedule. Be that as it may, the NFC is very thin, and there are seven playoff spots. Kyler Murray is good enough to get them in contention for that, and you’re getting a plus price.
Seattle Seahawks (+1600, 5.5)
Bet to Make: Kenneth Walker +1600 to win offensive rookie of the year on betmgm
Walker was one of the best players in college football a season ago, and with Chris Carson retiring, and Rashaad Penny injured (again), there may be a chance for the former Wake Forest and Michigan State running back to get a bunch of touches in a run-first offense in the Emerald City. Seattle will not be a good team, but it doesn’t require a good team to win rookie of the year, as Justin Herbert (2020), Murray (2019), Saquon Barkley (2018), Todd Gurley (2015) and Odell Beckham Jr. (2014) all played for teams with losing records.
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