• Bet on Daniel Jones' rushing ability: The Minnesota Vikings have allowed the most QB scrambles in the NFL this season. Of course, Jones is one of the NFL’s best scramblers and is behind only Lamar Jackson in rushing yards over expected this season.
• Bet on the Cowboys' passing attack: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers‘ coverage has been weak over the middle of the field. Their linebackers and safeties have struggled, and their slot corners have combined to produce the sixth-lowest PFF grade among teams this season.
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Estimated reading time: 3 mins
New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings
The Story: The New York Giants run lots of plays and rely on QB Daniel Jones‘ legs en route to victory.
• As our friends on Take The Points noted, the Minnesota Vikings have allowed the most QB scrambles in the NFL this season. Of course, Jones is one of the NFL’s best scramblers and is behind only Lamar Jackson in rushing yards over expected this season.
• Betting the over on a quarterback’s rushing prop would generally prevent us from taking the over on his passing yards prop, as every rush is one less potential pas attempt. However, the Vikings give teams a chance — they have faced the most plays in the NFL this season.
• Minnesota is average in terms of expected points added (EPA) allowed per pass play but has allowed 6.9 yards per pass attempt, the third-worst mark in the NFL. The result is that this team has allowed 390 yards a game, 31st among the league's 32 teams. And against every formidable offense they’ve played, their opponents have generated around 450 yards of offense.
FANDUEL SGP BUILD:+5161
- Daniel Jones: Over 80 rushing yards
- Daniel Jones: Over 240.5 passing yards
- New York Giants: -2.5
Dallas Cowboys @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Story: The Dallas Cowboys passing game explodes.
• This week's leveraging tails article touched on the reasons to be bullish on the Cowboys and their passing offense, and this SGP will elaborate on that view.
• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers‘ coverage has been weak over the middle of the field. Their linebackers and safeties have struggled, and their slot corners have combined to produce the sixth-lowest PFF grade among teams this season.
• Naturally, that leads us to bet on wide receiver Ceedee Lamb, who has operated out of the slot on more than 54% of his routes and has been elite in almost all efficiency metrics over the campaign.
• The matchup for Dalton Schultz also lends itself to success, given the Buccaneers' weakness and the fact that they are one of the league's most zone-heavy teams. When facing Zone coverage, Schultz and Lamb are tied with a 23% share, so the targets should also be abundant for Schultz.
FANDUEL SGP BUILD: +5837
- Dalton Schultz: Over 60 receiving yards
- CeeDee Lamb: Over 100 receiving yards
- Dak Prescott: Over 300 passing yards
- Dallas Cowboys: -5.5
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