NFL Week 3 best bets

Week 2 has come and is almost gone, and we carry a 2-2 record on our written picks from last week (one pick still to come on MNF) despite a bit of a bad beat with the Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5), which earned a lot of closing line value. We are 2-0 on our lock of the week picks — both Patrick Mahomes over 2.5 passing touchdowns.

We move on to Week 3, and there are six opportunities we like and discussed in the recent PFF Forecast.

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Washington Football Team (+9.5) @ Buffalo Bills

Point (George Chahrouri): The Bills won by TKO in Miami by a count of 35-0. That final score will hide a couple of troublesome data points. First, Buffalo ranked second to last in team pass-blocking grade pending review, with Miami being the only team worse. Second, quarterback Josh Allen does not look as sharp as he did last season, and he has bottom-five PFF grades from a clean pocket and against the blitz through Week 2.

This does not bode well for a matchup against one of the best defensive lines in the NFL. The Football Team will show up in Buffalo with more rest and a team that is far closer to the Bills' equal than a team deserving of the second-biggest spread of the week.

Counterpoint (Eric Eager): I’m a noted Washington Football Team fader this offseason, and I’m fully on board with the fact that this number is outrageous given the rest differential and Josh Allen's inconsistent play. It is not hyperbolic at all to say he has been one of the worst quarterbacks in football through two weeks (27th in PFF passing grade, pending review).