• Alvin Kamara due set for a big game on TNF? Since returning from his suspension, Alvin Kamara has been a PPR stud. He’s caught 68 passes in 11 games this season, totaling over 1,000 yards from scrimmage. With Chris Olave’s (ankle) status still up in the air, look for Kamara to see double-digit targets against the Rams on Thursday.
• Take the Saints to cover: Over the last two weeks, the Saints have outscored their opponents 52-12. The defense has really stepped up, which should give them a chance on Thursday. Expect this game to be really competitive but for the Saints to keep this game within a field goal.
• Get ahead of the game: PFF's Best Bets Tool uses PFF data to uncover the biggest edges in the betting market. Click here to see the best bets for this week.
Estimated reading time: 10 minutes
New Orleans Saints vs. Los Angeles Rams (-4)
Matchup to watch: Rams WR Cooper Kupp vs. Saints CB Alontae Taylor
The Saints have one of the better cornerback pairings in the NFL with Isaac Yiadom and Paulson Adebo. Unfortunately, they are still searching for a better slot option. Kupp has a very favorable matchup against Taylor in Week 16, so expect Matthew Stafford to target him early and often.
Fantasy breakout: Saints RB Alvin Kamara
Since returning from his suspension, Alvin Kamara has been a PPR stud. He’s caught 68 passes in 11 games this season, totaling over 1,000 yards from scrimmage. With Chris Olave’s (ankle) status still up in the air, look for Kamara to see double-digit targets against the Rams on Thursday.
Favorite bet: Saints +4
Over the last two weeks, the Saints have outscored their opponents 52-12. The defense has really stepped up, which should give them a chance on Thursday. Expect this game to be really competitive but for the Saints to keep this game within a field goal.
Cincinnati Bengals (-2) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Matchup to watch: Bengals WR Tee Higgins vs. Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr.
Joey Porter Jr. did an excellent job stopping Ja'Marr Chase in the first meeting between these two teams. But with Chase out this week due to a shoulder injury, we should expect him to follow Higgins. The Bengals need Higgins to carry their passing attack, but Porter will be the clear-cut top defensive back on the field for the Steelers. This should be a fantastic battle in this huge AFC North showdown.
Fantasy breakout: Steelers RB Jaylen Warren
Warren posted back-to-back 100-yard rushing days against the Packers and the Browns earlier this season, but he’s been pretty quiet since. But this could be a big day for him with the Bengals now without DI D.J. Reader. Look for the Steelers to use Warren a lot in the passing game, regardless of who is at quarterback.
Favorite bet: Steelers +2
This is the final home game for the Pittsburgh Steelers this season, and Mike Tomlin’s team needs this win to stay alive in the playoff hunt. The offense posted their first 400-yard performance of the season against the Bengals a few weeks ago, and that was on the road. While they might not have that level of success in this meeting, look for Tomlin and the Steelers to pull out a win to stop their three-game losing skid.
Buffalo Bills (-12) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Matchup to watch: Bills LT Dion Dawkins vs. Chargers EDGE Khalil Mack
Dawkins put on a dominant performance against the Cowboys last week, destroying their edge defenders in the run game. He’ll have another tough assignment this week against Mack, who is having one of the best years of his career. Buffalo could have another huge day on the ground if Dawkins can handle Mack in the run game.
Fantasy breakout: Chargers WR Joshua Palmer
Palmer made his return to the field in Week 15 after a stint on IR. He had a fantastic performance, catching all four targets for 113 yards and a score. With Keenan Allen‘s status still up in the air for this game, Palmer is a must-start as a FLEX play against Buffalo's pass defense this week.
Favorite bet: Chargers +12
The Bills looked dominant against the Cowboys in Week 15, rushing for over 250 yards and scoring 31 points. But the Bills have been one of the NFL’s most inconsistent teams and now go on the road to face the Chargers, who just fired Brandon Staley. Expect the Bills to win, but for the Chargers to keep this game competitive.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Atlanta Falcons (-1)
Matchup to watch: Falcons RG Chris Lindstrom vs. Colts DT DeForest Buckner
It doesn’t get much better than the best guard in football against one of the best interior defenders in the league. Lindstrom vs. Buckner is must-see TV, and the winner of this matchup will likely decide the game.
Fantasy breakout: Falcons WR Drake London
It's been difficult to figure out London this season, who has been hit-or-miss all year. But with the Falcons at home, look for them to give their No. 1 receiver plenty of targets against a cornerback room that is pretty inexperienced on the outside.
Favorite bet: Falcons -1
The Falcons have made a change at quarterback once again, going back to veteran Taylor Heinicke. We will see if that makes a difference, but expect the Falcons to use a run-heavy approach to try to save their season. This is a must-win game for the Falcons if they want to have any chance of making the postseason.
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) vs. Tennessee Titans
Matchup to watch: Seahawks RT Abraham Lucas vs. Titans EDGE Harold Landry III
Lucas has now played three games since returning from his injury and hasn’t been quite the same. He’s looked a tick slower and has really struggled as a pass-blocker. The same could be said about Harold Landry, who is returning from an ACL injury. He hasn’t looked the same either, but this will be a key matchup for both sides on Sunday.
Fantasy breakout: Titans RB Derrick Henry
Henry had the worst performance of his career in Week 15 as the Texans limited him to 10 yards on 20 touches. Henry has acknowledged that his time with the Titans could be running out, but expect him to go out with a bang over the following three games. Even after an awful performance last week, ensure he is in your lineups this week.
Favorite bet: Titans +2.5
The expectation is that Geno Smith will get the start for the Seahawks, but how well he plays after missing the last two weeks with a groin injury remains to be seen. Plus, Seattle will be playing on the road in Tennessee on a short week. There are a lot of good vibes coming out of Seattle after their big win against the Eagles, but don't be surprised if this is a much closer game than anyone anticipates in Week 16.
Detroit Lions (-3.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings
Matchup to watch: Lions RT Penei Sewell vs. Vikings EDGE Danielle Hunter
Sewell is the No. 1 graded offensive tackle in the NFL this season, and he’ll see a ton of Hunter on Sunday. Hunter has recorded 16 sacks this season, but he has just a 47.9 run-defense grade. Look for the Lions to run at him a ton in this NFC North matchup.
Fantasy breakout: Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson
Hockenson had a quiet game against the Bengals in Week 15, but this is a much better matchup. Against his former team, Hockenson should see plenty of action in the middle of the field. Nick Mullens is good at feeding tight ends in the passing game, so expect eight-plus targets for Hockenson on Sunday.
Favorite bet: Lions -3.5
The Lions are a much different team on the road vs. at home, but this is an indoor game with their offense clicking. Brian Flores will undoubtedly bring the blitz against the Lions, but Detroit has too many weapons on offense. Take the Lions to win and cover in Week 16.
Washington Commanders vs. New York Jets (-3)
Matchup to watch: Commanders RT Andrew Wylie vs. Jets EDGE Will McDonald IV
McDonald has started to play more snaps over the last few weeks after being a healthy scratch for much of the season. He is expected to get more playing time in Week 16 and will be tested against one of the better tackle pairings in the NFL.
Fantasy breakout: Jets TE Tyler Conklin
There aren’t a lot of breakout candidates going into this game outside of the usual suspects. But Conklin could have a nice game against a linebacker corps that has struggled against tight ends all year. He has caught at least four passes in eight of his 14 games this season and isn’t a bad low-end option at tight end in Week 16.
Favorite bet: Commanders +3
Both of these teams are in a bad spot right now, but there is no way that the Jets should be a 3-point favorite over anyone. Washington can throw the ball well, and they do have a lot of talent on offense. Expect this to be an ugly game, but for the Commanders to cover in Week 16.
Green Bay Packers (-5) vs. Carolina Panthers
Matchup to watch: Panthers WR Jonathan Mingo vs. Packers CB Eric Stokes
Stokes returned to the field for the first time this season in Week 15 and did not play well. That was expected, as he returned from a devastating knee injury. He'll have his hands full in Week 16 with Mingo, who has seen 24 targets over the last three games. This will be a fun matchup as the Panthers search for wide receiver help for Bryce Young.
Fantasy breakout: Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard
Heading into the semifinals of the fantasy playoffs, Hubbard is now a must-start for fantasy managers. Since taking over the starting role in Week 6, Hubbard has racked up 710 yards and four touchdowns. Green Bay has had major problems stopping the run this season, and Hubbard should see plenty of work in this matchup.
Favorite bet: Packers -5
The Packers are the better team and have the better quarterback going into Week 16. Jordan Love hasn't played great over the last few weeks, but expect him to bounce back in a game that the Packers need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Cleveland Browns (-2.5) vs. Houston Texans
Matchup to watch: Texans WR Nico Collins vs. Browns CB Martin Emerson Jr.
The hope is that Collins (calf) will return to the field in Week 16, but this could be a tough week for the third-year breakout receiver. The Browns have one of the best cornerback trios in the league, and Emerson has the size and length to match Collins. If the Browns can contain Collins, they should have no problem stopping the Texans' offense.
Fantasy breakout: Browns WR Elijah Moore
Since Joe Flacco has become the starting quarterback in Cleveland, Moore has had a bigger role in the offense. Over the last three games, he has 21 targets as the slot receiver for the Browns. The Texans have struggled to stop slot receivers this season, so this could be an excellent spot for Moore as a deep FLEX play in your fantasy playoffs.
Favorite bet: Browns -2.5
The expectation is that Case Keenum will draw the start for the Texans again this week, which will be too much for the Texans to overcome. Keenum did a great job of keeping Houston alive in the playoff hunt by beating the Titans in Week 15, but the Browns are a much different story. Take the Browns -2.5 and expect them to get the road win on Sunday.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (PK)
Matchup to watch: Buccaneers RT Luke Goedeke vs. Jaguars EDGE Travon Walker
Walker has made more splash plays this season for Jacksonville, but they need him to become more consistent. This should be a good matchup for him in Week 16, as he has a significant size and length advantage on Goedeke. The Buccaneers have been pleasantly surprised with Goedeke’s play this season, but this could be a tough matchup for the second-year offensive tackle from Central Michigan.
Fantasy breakout: Buccaneers WR Mike Evans
The Jaguars have had major problems stopping No. 1 receivers this season, especially with Tyson Campbell missing so much time due to injury. Evans has been held in check over the last two weeks, but this game sets up for him to have a massive performance. Evans is a solid WR2 this week with WR1 upside.
Favorite bet: Buccaneers ML
Even if Trevor Lawrence were to play in this game, the Buccaneers are still the best bet here. Baker Mayfield is playing some of the best football of his career, and the Jaguars have a major problem when it comes to stopping passing attacks. With the Buccaneers at home, take them to win and get above .500.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Chicago Bears (-4.5)
Matchup to watch: Cardinals RT Paris Johnson Jr. vs. Bears EDGE Montez Sweat
So far, the Montez Sweat trade couldn't have worked out any better for the Bears. He's already recorded six sacks (12.5 on the season), and he's been one of the reasons Chicago has been much improved on defense. He'll face the No. 6 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft in Paris Johnson on Sunday, but this matchup significantly favors the Bears.
Fantasy breakout: Cardinals RB James Conner
It's gone under the radar how good James Conner has been this season. Despite a brief stint on the injured reserve list, he’s averaging over 5.0 yards per carry this season. He hasn't been used much as a receiver, but he averages over 70 rushing yards per game. Expect Conner to get his usual 15-plus touches again on Sunday.
Favorite bet: Cardinals +4.5
The Bears have been much more competitive since Justin Fields has returned from his injury, but the Cardinals are getting too many points. Kyler Murray and the offense should be able to score 20-plus points in Week 16, allowing Arizona to cover the spread.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Miami Dolphins (-1.5)
Matchup to watch: Dolphins RT Austin Jackson vs. Cowboys EDGE Micah Parsons
Jackson received a contract extension from the Dolphins a few weeks ago, but his play since then has not matched his new deal. He'll have his toughest assignment of the year in Week 16, taking on Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence. Parsons really struggled against the run in Week 15, but expect him to continue to be a dominant pass-rusher in this matchup.
Fantasy breakout: Dolphins RB De’Von Achane
Achane missed multiple practices last week with a toe injury but managed to suit up in Week 15 against the Jets. He totaled 62 yards on 12 touches, but his workload is expected to increase in Week 16. The Cowboys just allowed over 250 yards rushing to the Bills last week, so expect to see another run-heavy attack from Miami this week.
Favorite bet: Dolphins -1.5
The Dolphins need this win more than the Cowboys and are the healthier team going into Week 16. Miami’s offense should have no problem running the ball against Dallas, which should help keep their offense on track. Look for this game to be a shootout in Miami with the Dolphins ultimately winning.
New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos (-6.5)
Matchup to watch: Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy vs. Patriots CB Jonathan Jones
The cornerback situation has been rough this season for the Patriots. They've lost two starting cornerbacks in Christian Gonzalez and Marcus Jones, plus they released Jack Jones midseason. But Jonathan Jones has developed into their top cornerback and is expected to see a ton of Jeudy on Christmas Eve. If the Patriots can hold Jeudy in check, they should be able to slow down the passing attack of the Broncos.
Fantasy breakout: Patriots TE Hunter Henry
Henry caught seven passes for 66 yards and a score against the Chiefs in Week 15, but it could have been an even bigger day. Henry caught another touchdown that was taken off the board due to a holding call. He’s scored three touchdowns over the last two games and is one of Bailey Zappe‘s go-to guys. Against a defense that has struggled to stop tight ends all year, Henry is a must-start in Week 16.
Favorite bet: Patriots +6.5
The Pats defense has been pretty incredible this season. They've managed to keep the points down and are starting to force more turnovers. While their offense is still a major concern, expect the defense to keep this game close.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-10)
Matchup to watch: Chiefs LT Wanya Morris vs. Raiders EDGE Malcolm Koonce
Maxx Crosby has posted some big games against the Chiefs throughout his career, but he finally has help on the other side. Koonce has been a star for the Raiders over the last month and is really starting to round into form. He’ll see a ton of Morris, who is a third-round rookie from Oklahoma. Advantage: Raiders.
Fantasy breakout: Chiefs WR Rashee Rice
At this point, Rice is a must-start player in your fantasy leagues moving forward. There likely aren't 15 better options in the NFL, as he's developed into Patrick Mahomes‘s No. 1 receiver. The Raiders have done a better job slowing down receivers over the last month; look for this to be another big day for Rice in Week 16.
Favorite bet: Chiefs -10
In their previous meeting, the Raiders held a 17-0 lead against the Chiefs, only to lose by double-digits. The Chiefs need to win this game to stay alive in the race for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, so expect Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes to keep their foot on the gas pedal and win this game at home.
New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-12)
Matchup to watch: Eagles C Jason Kelce vs. Giants DI Dexter Lawrence
You can make a strong case that Dexter Lawrence has been the NFL’s best defensive player this season. Not only does he have the highest pass-rush grade (92.7) among all interior defensive linemen, but he also has the second-highest run-defense grade (87.9). He has a significant size advantage over Kelce, but look for the Eagles to double him nearly all game long.
Fantasy breakout: Eagles WR A.J. Brown
From Weeks 3-8, Brown went over 125 receiving yards in each game and racked up 831 yards. Since then, he’s averaged just 62.5 receiving yards per game as the entire offense has struggled. But look for the Eagles to get him involved early and often against the Giants.
Favorite bet: Over 42
The Eagles have one of the NFL’s worst passing defenses in the NFL and that means that even the Giants could have some success passing this week. Look for Philadelphia’s offense to bounce back and score 30-plus, which should allow the over to hit in this NFC East matchup.
Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers (-5.5)
Matchup to watch: Ravens RT Morgan Moses vs. 49ers EDGE Nick Bosa
Bosa is putting together another really strong season, grading out as the No. 2 edge defender in all football. But he'll have a tough assignment in Week 16 against Moses, one of the best and most consistent right tackles in the league. Slowing down Bosa will be priority No. 1 for the Ravens on Monday Night Football.
Fantasy breakout: Ravens WR Zay Flowers
There aren’t many holes in the defense of the 49ers, but the slot position is one that the Ravens are expected to attack at a high rate. Flowers caught just one pass for seven yards in Week 15 but look for the Ravens to get him more involved this week.
Favorite bet: 49ers -5.5
This could be a Super Bowl preview on Monday Night Football, but no team is playing better in the NFL than the San Franciso 49ers. They are healthy and at home, which is all you need to know to pick them here. Don't be surprised if the 49ers win by double-digits against the top team in the AFC.
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