Over the years, PFF data scientists have conducted extensive studies to better understand and predict player performance. While many of these foundational works continue to shape discussions and influence analysis, the focus here is on identifying how those insights apply to specific weekly matchups and uncovering opportunities the betting market may have overlooked.
Some bets will align with traditional markets, while others will explore more niche options to ensure we leverage the most suitable markets for a given thesis or angle.
The Houston Texans passing attack vs. the New England Patriots‘ man-coverage-heavy secondary
PFF has studied the impact of man versus zone coverage and found that talent tends to prevail more often in man coverage than in zone coverage. The screenshot below illustrates some of this research.
New England has deployed man coverage at the NFL’s third-highest rate this season, but their cornerbacks, particularly Jonathan Jones and Christian Gonzalez, have struggled to prevent separation.
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