Over the years, PFF data scientists have conducted extensive studies to better understand and predict player performance. While many of these foundational works continue to shape discussions and influence analysis, the focus here is on identifying how those insights apply to specific weekly matchups and uncovering opportunities the betting market may have overlooked.
Some bets will align with traditional markets, while others will explore more niche options to ensure we leverage the most suitable markets for a given thesis or angle.
The Indianapolis Colts’ offensive line could neutralize the Chicago Bears’ Run Defense
The Colts face a tough challenge this week against a Bears run defense that has been one of the NFL’s best since the start of 2023, ranking top-three in both EPA allowed per rush and rushing success rate allowed.
The market seems to be anticipating a dip in the Colts' rushing output, as Jonathan Taylor‘s current rushing prop is set notably lower than his first two weeks, despite him easily surpassing it last week.
However, not all matchups are created equal. In this strength-on-strength contest, the underlying data suggests that the Colts' blocking efficiency should allow them to overcome Chicago’s stout run defense.
As PFF tracks every play on every snap, we can measure “perfect blocks,” where no player on the offensive line misses their assignment. A few years ago, we identified that perfectly blocked runs are among the most valuable plays in football. For teams like the Colts, who excel in this area, perfect block rates tend to be sustainable and are as close to “matchup-proof” as you’ll find in the NFL.
Not only are the Colts generating a high perfect block rate, but they’re also winning after contact, strengthening the case for their rushing attack.
Suggested bets: It may not be the most exciting angle, but in a strength-on-strength matchup, the underlying metrics favor the Colts. The market seems to reflect this, and I’ll be taking the over on Taylor’s rushing props and betting on game scripts where the Colts dominate on the ground.
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Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud Picks Apart Minnesota Vikings‘ Zone Coverage and Blitz Packages
With Brian Flores at the helm, the Vikings have become one of the NFL's most blitz-heavy and zone-reliant defenses. After back-to-back strong performances, the market is starting to buy into the Vikings defense, as reflected in the totals for their games. However, these two areas — zone coverage and the blitz — are precisely where C.J. Stroud has excelled.
Against man coverage, Stroud has been below average in efficiency. But when facing zone coverage, he has been one of the NFL’s top performers. Not only is Stroud consistent on a down-to-down basis against zone defenses, but he also ranks second in explosive play rate, throwing an explosive pass nearly 12% of the time when facing zone coverage.
Stroud has also thrived against the blitz, earning the eighth-highest PFF grade in such situations compared to 13th without the blitz. His efficiency, measured by EPA, also improves against blitz-heavy defenses. Additionally, Stroud has a greater tendency to deliver explosive plays when blitzed, even after adjusting for the higher baseline explosive play rate that blitzing naturally allows.
Suggested bets: Following a tough outing on Sunday Night Football, I’m backing Stroud in this matchup, which I believe is perceived to be more difficult than it truly is. Minnesota's defensive tendencies play directly into Stroud’s strengths, making this an opportunity for a big performance. I’ll be betting on Stroud’s passing overs, his alternate passing yards and the Texans' team totals.
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