• TE Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers — over 3.5 receptions: Options are limited for the Chargers, and the market does not seem to have properly accounted for the sheer volume of targets Keenan Allen was taking up in this offense.
• WR Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas Raiders — over 23.5 receiving yards: The baseline total of 23.5 is too low for someone generating between three and five targets per game with a high expected catch rate.
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Estimated reading time: 2 minutes
GAME OVERVIEW
Survival of the fittest. Two beaten-up teams, both down to their starting quarterback now that Chargers signal-caller Justin Herbert has been ruled out for the season with a finger injury.
Easton Stick takes over for the Chargers, but he will be without his team's two starting wide receivers, as Keenan Allen has now been ruled out with a heel injury. This leaves rookie Quentin Johnston as L.A.’s No. 1 option opposite Joshua Palmer, who returns having not played since Week 8.
Things are just as bad for the Las Vegas Raiders after an abysmal 3-0 loss against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 14. Running back Josh Jacobs picked up an injury last week and has not practiced once this week. Though he is listed as questionable, it is tough to see him being anywhere near full capacity if he does suit up.
Star wide receiver Davante Adams \popped up on the injury report with an illness on Wednesday and is also questionable, leaving the Raiders very limited on offense with struggling backup quarterback Aidan O’Connell.
Las Vegas edge rusher Maxx Crosby was injured going into last week’s game, but he played almost every snap. He missed the first two practices this week, but he put in a limited performance on Wednesday, setting himself up to see the field again despite some issues.
TE Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers: Over 3.5 receptions (+118 Caesars, +114 FanDuel)
Options are limited for the Chargers, and the market does not seem to have properly accounted for the sheer volume of targets Keenan Allen was taking up in this offense.
With Easton Stick at quarterback, there will almost certainly be a downtick in passing volume, and the return of Joshua Palmer dilutes the potential target share a little, but Keenan Allen saw at least nine targets in each of his last nine games.
Allen's lowest target total in any game since Week 8 eight is higher than any other player has contributed in any game in that period.
A nice, reliable tight end with a low average depth of target is exactly the type of player who will help a replacement passer settle into a game, and there should be good work available for Everett against a team that is struggling to defend against tight ends in general.
Only six teams have given up more personnel-adjusted yards per route run to tight ends than the Raiders since Week 8.
WR Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas Raiders: Over 23.5 receiving yards (-113 FanDuel) & Hunter Renfrow 40+ receiving yards (+235 FanDuel)
The Chargers secondary has done an excellent job of limiting production from opposing passing offenses in recent weeks, and with RB Josh Jacobs likely missing in the run game and Davante Adams coming into the game with an illness, it is a struggle to see where this offense will find success a week after posting a 0 against the Vikings.
Still, Hunter Renfrow has recently solidified his position as the starting slot receiver and has a good matchup against slot corner Essang Bassey.
The baseline total of 23.5 is too low for someone generating between three and five targets per game with a high expected catch rate. And considering his matchup (which is likely the best of any of the Raiders' wide receivers), the potentially limited ability of Davante Adams and the downturn in rushing efficiency and backfield-passing volume if Josh Jacobs is missing, there is upside in the 40-plus receiving yards line.
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