• RB Joe Mixon, Houston Texans — over 20.5 carries: Since Nico Collins went down in Week 5, Houston's offense has posted a top-10 run-play percentage (42.8%). The injuries to the receiving corps continue to worsen, so look for this offense to lean on the running game even more.
• 2024 Record through Week 8: 18-20 (47.4%) — -1.8 units won.
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Estimated Reading Time: 4 minutes
Houston Texans vs New York Jets (-1.5) [Total: 42]
Game Overview
Week 9 kicks off with a matchup between a pair of teams navigating difficult waters heading into the back half of the year.
The New York Jets come into yet another primetime matchup looking for answers amid a five-game skid straight-up and against the spread. Primetime matchups have been particularly challenging for this team, which has covered just one of its four games in the spotlight, with their lone win coming at home against the Patriots in Week 3.
Offensive issues have long been mounting in New York, with their metrics looking especially poor over the losing streak. Since Week 4, the Jets rank in the bottom third of the NFL in overall offensive team grade (69.2) and expected points added per play.
Slow starts have plagued the team, which lays claim to some of the league's poorest first-quarter offensive metrics, including EPA per play (31st), yards per play (28th), turnovers (tied for last) and successful play rate (28th). And despite his overall solid grading profile, quarterback Aaron Rodgers shares responsibility for these issues, ranking last among qualifying passers in first-quarter passing grade (46.5).
Conversely, the Houston Texans mounted a turnaround against the spread in October, posting a 3-1 record after dropping every spread in September. Given the Texans' current tribulations, they’ve also managed to secure an under on the game total in all but two matchups this season.
Injuries have hit Houston's offense hard recently, with Nico Collins having been sidelined since Week 5 and Stefon Diggs going down for the year this past week after suffering a torn ACL. That leaves the offense strapped in the receiving game as attention shifts to Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz to carry the load.
Luckily, the Texans' defense has taken pressure off the offense, putting games within reach every week behind a solid pass rush. Over the past three games, Houston’s pass rush has racked up the second-most pressures (67) and recorded the third-highest knockdown rate (19.5%) in the NFL.
RB Joe Mixon, Houston Texans: Over 20.5 Carries (-108) — 1.9% Edge
Since Nico Collins went down in Week 5, Houston's offense has posted a top-10 run-play percentage (42.8%). The injuries to the receiving corps continue to worsen, so look for the offense to lean on the running game even more.
Enter Joe Mixon, who has been among the most effective backs in the league. Despite going down early in Week 2 and missing the subsequent three games, Mixon has still managed to surpass 100 yards on the ground in every game he’s finished. Part of that production stems from his sizable usage marks, having racked up 25 or more carries in three of his four completed outings.
Attacking the Jets' defense on the ground continues to be a strong approach for opposing offenses, with New York holding the sixth-highest rate of run plays faced (46.0%). In their eight matchups this season, they’ve faced 23 or more rushing attempts from backs in all but one game.
Without much of anyone else in the Texans' backfield to vulture carries from Mixon, this is a strong bet.
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