• QB Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens — Under 19.5 completions: The two-time MVP is more than capable of airing out the football, but the Ravens will likely look to use Derrick Henry often in this contest.
• RB Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens — Over 6.5 receiving yards: In five of his eight career Week 1 appearances, Henry easily eclipsed this receiving yardage mark. Three of those games also ended up being Henry’s biggest receiving outputs of the season, including in 2023.
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Estimated Reading Time: 3 minutes
Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-3) [Total: 46.5]
Game Overview
There is no better way to kick off an NFL season than with a highly anticipated rematch of one of 2023’s game-of-the-year candidates: the AFC title game between the back-to-back champion Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens.
In their hotly contested playoff matchup, both defenses performed outstandingly, particularly in the second half as the offenses scored a combined three points. Each team did somewhat struggle to find consistent footing on offense, and that was the difference. Ultimately, the Chiefs’ modest first-half lead proved too much for the Ravens to overcome.
Baltimore was left stagnant on offense, unable to execute in the passing game and largely abandoning the run early. The soon-to-be-named 2023 MVP Lamar Jackson was limited to just a 50.6 PFF passing grade, due largely to the offense's inability to adjust the game plan to get the ball out quicker. Kansas City subsequently racked up 17 pressures in the second half, including a trio of brutal sacks.
The Ravens largely ignored the run game — handing just six carries to running backs in the game — despite the Chiefs' second-worst-ranked EPA per rush leading up to the contest, leaving many questioning their game plan. That undoubtedly led to the signing of Derrick Henry this offseason.
Kansas City head coach Andy Reid also shuffled his roster this offseason, with talented cornerback L’Jarius Sneed departing but rookie wideout Xavier Worthy joining via the draft. At the end of the day, the road to the Super Bowl still runs through Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes. The question is: Can anyone overtake them?
QB Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: Under 19.5 completions (+100) — 9.5% PFF Greenline edge
The reigning MVP clocked 46 dropbacks in the last Chiefs-Ravens matchup, but he managed just 20 completions, with his offense scoring 10 points by the time it was all said and done. That game plan won’t cut it this time around.
Throughout 2023, Jackson averaged just over 19 completions per game, surpassing this line in nine games. The two-time MVP is more than capable of airing out the football, but the Ravens' offense is undoubtedly more effective when the ground game sets up the pass, having clocked the fourth-highest EPA per play figure after a run last season.
Maximizing that output was exactly their aim when adding Derrick Henry to this backfield to complement Jackson. That investment in the run game will be on full display as Baltimore looks for redemption from its playoff exit.
RB Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens: Over 6.5 receiving yards (-118) — 6.1% PFF Greenline edge
While Henry isn’t explicitly known for his receiving ability, he’s not without talent in that area, coming off a career-high 70.7 PFF receiving grade in 2023. The bruising back averaged roughly 1.8 targets per game last season, which allowed him to surpass this yardage threshold in 10 games.
After a long offseason, teams may forget that Henry is a bulldozer in the open field, regardless of how he gets the ball. In five of his eight career Week 1 appearances, Henry easily eclipsed this receiving yardage mark. Three of those games also ended up being Henry’s biggest receiving outputs of the season, including in 2023.
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