• WR Garrett Wilson, New York Jets — over 5.5 receptions: The Jets like to get the young receiver short-to-intermediate targets, feeding him a healthy dose of screens and zone set-up looks. His 17 targets so far this season are tied for the 12th most at the position.
• Aaron Rodgers makes his return to Metlife: This will be Rodgers’ first home game after suffering a season-ending Achilles injury in 2023, and he should look Garrett Wilson's way often.
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Estimated Reading Time: 4 minutes
New England Patriots vs New York Jets (-6.5) [Total: 38.5]
Game Overview
Week 3 kicks off with AFC East divisional action on Thursday night, in what will be Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ first home game after suffering a season-ending Achilles injury in 2023.
After a pair of road games to open the season, the Jets finally find themselves in familiar territory in Metlife. Despite dropping a tough game in San Francisco to open the year, Gang Green took care of business in Nashville, covering as 3.5-point road favorites.
The Jets' red-zone offense is seemingly scoring at will, producing a touchdown on 80% of its red-zone drives. The backfield has been instrumental in that efficiency, having generated the second-highest EPA per red zone rush through the first two weeks. First-year running back Braelon Allen showcased that well this past week, finding the end zone twice off just a pair of touches.
While New England has played solid enough defense in between the 20s, they’ve had some issues when the field gets condensed. They’ve seen the fifth-fewest red-zone plays run against them this season (11) but have surrendered a successful play on 45% of those plays, good for 28th in the NFL.
That task has been made even more difficult following the loss of Patriots defensive captain Ja’Whaun Bentley, who suffered a season-ending pec injury last week. Without Bentley in the middle of this defense, New England will need to lean on linebacker Jahlani Tavai to lead this unit, along with Raekwon McMillan to play an expanded role.
However, the Patriots are more than capable of punching teams in the mouth with the run game, something that should worry the Jets, who may be without linebacker C.J. Mosley (toe) this week. Through two weeks, New England's offense has produced a top-10 EPA per rush figure behind the bruising carries of Rhamondre Stevenson, owner of the league’s fifth-highest rushing grade (80.7) at the position.
Injuries to center David Andrews and tackle Mike Onwenu will make replicating that production a bit more difficult, but Stevenson is more than capable of making up for it, having generated 87% of his yardage after contact.
New England will look for every opportunity to control the ball and keep New York out of the red zone. The question is: Will Rodgers and the Jets give them the opportunity to?
WR Garrett Wilson, New York Jets: Over 5.5 Receptions (-111) — 3.5% PFF Greenline Edge
Despite catching a stray shot from Justin Jefferson this past week, Garrett Wilson has been quietly productive, having earned a 72.6 PFF receiving grade through two games.
Although Wilson hasn’t erupted in either game, it's not for lack of looks from Rodgers. The Jets like to get the young receiver short-to-intermediate targets, feeding him a healthy dose of screens and zone set-up looks. His 17 targets so far this season are tied for the 12th most at the position.
That will come in handy this week against a Patriots defense that was picked apart by Seattle last week. Seahawks wide receivers D.K. Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba combined for 246 yards on 22 grabs against the coverage unit. If the Jets move Wilson around to take advantage of New England's defense in a similar manner, this may be his breakout game of 2024.
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