• RB Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers — over 90 rushing and receiving yards: Jacobs’ profile has only risen since the Packers returned from their Week 10 bye. Over the past three weeks, Jacobs lays claim to the position’s highest overall grade (90.4), with 29 missed tackles forced — tied for the most among backs over that span.
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Estimated Reading Time: 3 minutes
Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions (-3.5) [Total: 51.5]
Game Overview
The Week 14 slate of NFL games begins with a heavyweight battle in the NFC North, between the current No. 1 seed in the NFC, the Detroit Lions, and the current holders of the NFC’s second wild-card slot, the Green Bay Packers.
These bitter rivals last met in Week 9, with the Lions claiming a 10-point victory — and covering as 2.5-point road favorites — in a game that wasn’t nearly as close as the score indicates. Once the Lions started rolling, that matchup was out of reach for Green Bay, which failed to score a touchdown for more than 46 minutes of game time, cutting into an 18-point lead with less than four minutes to play.
Stout defense, highlighted by Kerby Joseph‘s pick-six and a key red-zone fourth-down stop, led the way for Detroit’s rout of the Packers in wet playing conditions in Green Bay. That shut down the narrative brewing at the time that the Lions would collapse in the weather, having played all of their matchups in domes (the superior setting for football).
While the Lions still hold a top-three cover rate (75%, 9-3 against the spread) in the NFL, the past month has resulted in some closer matchups than bettors may have expected. In November, Detroit notched a 3-2 record against the spread, marking its first failed cover since Week 2.
However, the Packers have fared worse in betting markets, and despite covering their past two matchups, they hold just a 2-4 against-the-spread record since Week 7 — a far cry from the 4-2 mark they posted to start the year. And to further complicate matters, the Packers’ current two-game cover streak comes partially as a result of the 49ers being without their starting quarterback and the Dolphins’ inability to acclimate to winter weather.
Green Bay will have to contend with the league’s top-scoring offense on its home turf (35.2 points per game at Ford Field) while also trying to crack the third-ranked defense in EPA per play allowed. It's an uphill battle, to say the least.
Despite some stumbles in betting markets, the NFC North profiles as perhaps the NFL’s strongest division, with both of these teams holding high marks among the league's best in the power rankings.
RB Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers: Over 90 Rushing & Receiving Yards (-120)
Jacobs has been one of the more consistent and efficient producers at the position this season, holding top-five PFF grades as a runner (90.3) and a receiver (81.7), a credit to his marked improvement as a target out of the backfield. That boost in the passing game has allowed Jacobs to generate 90 or more combined rushing and receiving yards in 10 of his 12 matchups. He has surpassed this line in his past six outings, including the last time these teams met, when he racked up 108 total yards.
That profile has only risen since the Packers returned from their Week 10 bye. Over the past three weeks, Jacobs lays claim to the position’s highest overall grade (90.4) while amassing 29 missed tackles forced — tied for the most among backs over that span.
While the Lions maintain a top-10 defense in EPA per rush allowed, they may have to contend without several key contributors in the front-seven who were present for the last matchup, including edge defender Josh Paschal (knee), interior defender D.J. Reader (shoulder), interior defender Levi Onwuzurike (hamstring) and linebacker Alex Anzalone (out for the year).
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