Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-3) [Total: 42]
Game Overview
Week 16 opens with a battle between AFC West rivals in the current sixth-seed Denver Broncos and the seventh-seed Los Angeles Chargers.
Although Los Angeles maintains a strong 9-4-1 record against the spread, last week’s blowout loss marked the team's third straight-up loss in the past four weeks to go with a pair of failed covers. However, the Chargers have excelled when laying points this year, maintaining a 77.8% cover rate as the favorite — second only to the Broncos.
Issues have arisen for the Chargers in recent weeks, stemming from a drastic fall-off in offensive productivity. Since Week 12, Los Angeles ranks just 25th in EPA per play — a stark contrast to their top-11 mark over the four weeks prior. That drop can be attributed to the offense’s lack of consistent playmaking ability, with the unit having notched just a 15.4% touchdown drive rate (27th) and recording a successful play on just 31.8% of snaps (28th) over that span.
That could spell trouble with the stalwart Broncos defense coming to town. Denver's unit has produced the league’s best EPA per play allowed this season, largely because of their opportunistic nature. The Broncos have produced the most points in the NFL by a defense (32), highlighted by three defensive touchdowns in their past two games.
A strong defense paired with a promising young quarterback in Bo Nix has led this team to the NFL’s best record against the spread (11-3), with their last failed cover coming back in Week 9. Playing in the thin air in Denver is not the only place this team knows how to cover, as they hold a 6-1 against-the-spread record on the road this season.
However, the Broncos still have something to prove after this same Chargers team bested them back in Week 6 — a game in which Los Angeles covered as a 3-point favorite in Denver. With postseason positioning on the line, expect both teams to empty the tank in this divisional matchup.
RB Kimani Vidal, Los Angeles Chargers: Under 27.5 rushing yards (-116) — 5.4% PFF Edge
After J.K. Dobbins landed on injured reserve following Week 12, a young, talented back waiting in the wings was expected to take over the Chargers' backfield. However, Vidal's contributions have been limited despite his expanded role. Over the past three games, the first-year back has amassed just 15 carries while averaging 4.2 yards per tote, earning just a 56.7 PFF rushing grade over the span. The volume just isn’t there to facilitate his rushing yardage lines, resulting in him exceeding his rushing line just once this season.
Denver's defense is adept at holding down backs, having surrendered the second-lowest EPA per rush this season. The Broncos have allowed the third-lowest yards per carry allowed (3.9) and the sixth-lowest explosive run play percentage (11.0%), too.
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.