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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Los Angeles Rams (-7) [Total: 49.5]
Game Overview
The Week 12 Sunday slate concludes with a pivotal matchup between NFC divisional leaders. The Rams are riding high, coming off an emphatic victory over the Seahawks to take sole possession of the NFC West. The Buccaneers are looking to stop a two-game skid after losing in a shootout to the Bills, and while they hold a narrow lead over the Panthers in the NFC South, a loss in this contest could shake things up at the top.
After failing to cover as 3.5-point favorites at home in Week 11, the Rams dropped to 3-2 against the spread in Los Angeles. That may pose a problem, as Baker Mayfield, the road king himself, is up next. Since signing the former No. 1 pick in 2023, Tampa Bay maintains a 72.2% cover rate as a road underdog.
However, injuries to key playmakers have taken their toll on the Buccaneers, who have cooled down as of late. Tampa Bay has managed to cover only one of its past four games, which includes blown covers as six-point underdogs in Detroit and Buffalo. The Rams may be a step above even that, ranking first in team PFF offensive grade (90.7) and second in team PFF defensive grade (84.7).
QB Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: Over 256.5 passing yards (-114)
The current MVP front-runner can whip the ball around with the best of 'em. His 92.2 PFF passing grade stands as the NFL’s best through Week 11, highlighted by a league-leading 23 big-time throws. It helps to have two of the most talented receivers in the game in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, both of whom rank in the top 10 in PFF overall grade among qualifying receivers.
The 37-year-old passer has averaged 255.7 passing yards per game this season and has generated 280 yards or more in two of the Rams' past three games. Stafford is set up for success against a Buccaneers defense that has struggled to slow down quarterbacks this season, having surrendered the fifth-most passing yardage in the NFL. They’ve allowed more than 260 passing yards in five of their past six games and have let six quarterbacks perform above expectation to cash the over this season.
Tampa Bay ranks 25th in passing success rate allowed (40.5%), due in large part to difficulties with stopping play action. The Buccaneers rank last in the NFL in yards allowed per play-action dropback. That doesn’t bode well for them against Stafford, who boasts the second-highest play-action PFF passing grade in the NFL.
To make matters worse, the Buccaneers have ruled out Jamel Dean, the second-highest-graded coverage cornerback (83.3) in the NFL this season. That will put the pressure on first-year cornerback Benjamin Morrison, who has struggled in his limited time in the lineup, posting just a 46.6 PFF coverage grade. A secondary is only as strong as its weakest link, and I expect Stafford to test that link often.
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