PFF breaks down Week 18's Sunday Night Football matchup by looking at both teams' records, key trends and a game overview before delivering the best bet backed by PFF's trusted betting model.
Game Overview
The 2024 NFL regular season finale promises high stakes and playoff-level intensity as the Vikings and Lions clash at Ford Field with the NFC North crown and the conference’s No. 1 seed on the line. The winner secures not only bragging rights but also a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the postseason.
Both teams have been powerhouses in betting markets, tied for the league's best cover percentage at 73.3% (11-4-1 ATS). Yet, their recent trends tell different stories.
While Detroit has been the division's pace-setter, they’ve faltered slightly down the stretch. Since Thanksgiving, the Lions are 2-2-1 against the spread, including a winless 0-2-1 mark at home.
Conversely, Minnesota has been building momentum, compiling a 4-1 ATS record since December began. However, four of those five games were played at home, leaving questions about their ability to perform in the hostile playoff-like atmosphere of Ford Field. That said, the Vikings' 4-2-1 ATS road record and perfect 4-0 ATS mark as underdogs this season suggest they can rise to the occasion.
The Lions carry the confidence of recent success against their division rivals, having won outright as 1.5-point underdogs in Minnesota during their Week 7 showdown.
In that game, Detroit led 28-17 heading into the fourth quarter, only for the Vikings to storm back. A David Montgomery fumble, which was returned for a touchdown by Ivan Pace Jr., gave Minnesota a late edge. However, a failed two-point conversion kept the Lions within reach, paving the way for Jake Bates to seal the win with a dramatic game-winning field goal as time expired.
WR Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings: Over 93.5 Receiving yards (-113)
Jefferson continues to prove why he’s one of the league’s elite, having produced the fourth-highest PFF receiving grade (90.3) at his position this season. A master of the deep ball, Jefferson leads the NFL with 41 receptions of 15 or more yards—seven more than his closest competitor, Ja'Marr Chase.
This week, Jefferson gets a favorable matchup against a reshuffled and undermanned Lions secondary. Following Carlton Davis III’s injury in Week 15, Detroit has adjusted by moving Amik Robertson to the outside and Brian Branch back into the slot. While Robertson has held his own, first-year corner Terrion Arnold has struggled mightily. Arnold’s 48.8 PFF coverage grade ranks 112th out of 117 qualifying corners.
Over his last three games, Arnold has allowed an average of 12.7 yards per coverage target, including a 15-plus yard reception on 5.7% of his coverage snaps. With this mismatch in Jefferson’s favor, expect the Vikings to exploit the Lions’ secondary throughout the game.
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